Jason Timpf’s Timberwolves vs. Spurs Second Round Playoff Series Breakdown & Prediction

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Season Series Recap

The Wolves actually won the season series 2-1. As is usually the case, a lot of guys missed those three regular season games.

Wemby only played in two of the games, and those were the ones that came down to the final sequence of possessions. Gobert missed one of those two games with Wemby. Devin Vassell missed both of the games that Wemby played in.

That’s just kind of a natural part of these series previews. We look at the regular season games, but there’s almost always a lot of noise that makes them kind of strange. Not to mention, the Timberwolves are down three of their top seven players if Edwards doesn’t suit up, which is another giant red flag going into this series.

Regular Season vs. Playoff Basketball

One thing that stands out every year when I do these second round previews is how big the gap is between regular season and playoff intensity.

You watch regular season film and it looks normal. Then you watch the first round and it’s a bloodbath. Then you go back to regular season games to prep for round two, and it almost feels like a joke.

I was watching one of the Spurs-Wolves games this morning, and the Spurs announcers were talking about how the Wolves were 6-4 in their last 10 and had just given up 140 points. This is the same Wolves team that just recently took one of the best offenses in the league and strangled the life out of them.

Classic regular season Wolves.

That’s the larger point – regular season basketball is really just useful for small snippets that might translate to the postseason. You have to take it with a grain of salt.

What the Close Games Showed Us

We did get two close games between these teams, which gives us a better approximation of playoff basketball.

Wemby’s rim protection was a real factor. Minnesota had to rely on a lot of pull-up jumpers down the stretch when he was on the floor.

Ant was taking tough contested mid-range shots and difficult pull-up threes. Even Jaden McDaniels’ game-winner in one of those games was a tough fadeaway in transition – a one-leg shot in the lane with Wemby recovering.

The only paint scoring Minnesota got late came from second-chance opportunities. Julius Randle had an offensive rebound where he used multiple pump fakes to create a small window for a lefty finish. There was also a Naz Reid post-up where he worked through multiple moves for a hook shot, but again, not a clean look at the rim.

For the most part, when Wemby is on the floor, he protects the rim and turns Minnesota into a pull-up shooting team.

The Anthony Edwards Factor

Ant looked comfortable getting to his spots for pull-up jump shots, with Steph Castle as the primary defender.

But we still don’t know exactly when Ant will return – or how he’ll look when he does.

His game is heavily dependent on rhythm and shot-making. Unlike someone like Giannis, who can rely on athleticism, Ant needs to be in a groove to hit those pull-up shots.

If he comes back for this series, he’s going to have to immediately hit tough jumpers. That’s a lot to ask.

When he was healthy, he did a ton of damage. He had 55 in one of the games Wemby played in, hitting pull-up three after pull-up three. In another game, he hit a huge pull-up over Castle and even won the game isolating Wemby – baiting him into overplaying the jumper and attacking downhill.

Julius Randle vs. Victor Wembanyama

The Julius Randle-Wemby matchup was fascinating.

In the game the Wolves won, Julius had some really strong ISO defensive possessions. He got underneath Wemby, used his strength and lower center of gravity, and forced him into tough shots – similar to what Aaron Gordon has done in matchups like this.

But in the game the Spurs won, Wemby had success scoring out of actions – especially pick-and-pop situations where Julius would show on the screen, creating space for Wemby to get clean looks.

This matchup comes down to whether Julius can stay attached. If he does, he can disrupt Wemby. If he gets separated, Wemby is shooting comfortably over the top.

The Gobert Question

One of the most interesting subplots is whether San Antonio can play Gobert off the floor.

If Minnesota wants to pull Wemby away from the rim, that likely means removing Gobert.

San Antonio showed counters to this in the regular season – pre-switching and keeping Wemby anchored near the rim as a help defender.

But if Gobert comes off the floor, Minnesota loses its best rim protector. That opens up opportunities for San Antonio to attack.

Shot Quality and Style of Play

San Antonio is going to have a speed advantage. Minnesota has more size on the perimeter.

If the Spurs can get to the rim while Minnesota is forced into tough jump shots, that tilts the shot quality heavily in their favor.

But if Spurs shooters like Castle cool off, Minnesota may be able to keep Gobert at the rim and turn the game into a more physical, half-court battle.

That kind of game favors Minnesota’s size and strength.

Injuries and Depth

Minnesota is compromised right now.

With injuries to key players, there’s a real chance they’re missing contributors early in the series. That puts pressure on guys like Terrence Shannon in tougher matchups, especially going against better athletes and Wemby at the rim.

Mike Conley and others can also be physically overwhelmed in certain situations.

San Antonio is healthier. Minnesota is not.

Wolves-Spurs Series Prediction

And that makes San Antonio a clear favorite for a reason. The Wolves are big underdogs.

I think the Spurs are the safer bet. I think they should be favored by this much. And I’m going to pick them to win the series in six games.

But do not make the mistake that so many others have made when it comes to this Timberwolves team – underestimate them at your own peril. They absolutely can win this series.

Even if it’s a hampered version of Ant who comes back, they have the ability to guard this team. They have the ability to physically maul them at certain positions. They have the ability to shoot over the top with their perimeter size.

And in that sense, I actually kind of think the Wolves are a nice value play at their price.

There’s a difference between a big underdog that doesn’t really have a chance and a team where it’s like, yeah, they’re the underdog, but they can absolutely win the series.

That’s where Minnesota falls.

Spurs in six – but don’t be surprised if this gets weird.