Welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.
We are starting our series previews for the first round with the Lakers and the Rockets, so let’s dig into it and talk some basketball.
Rockets vs. Lakers Season Series Notes
The Lakers won the season series against the Rockets 2-1. They finished with a -3.3 net rating, in large part because of the Christmas Day blowout. That was kind of the crescendo of the bad Lakers stretch.
They started trying to dig their way out from that point forward. It was uneven at first, but that’s when you really saw an internal effort to turn things around.
The Rockets, in this matchup this season, rebounded 46.7% of their own misses. This is going to be one of the most important battlegrounds of the series.
Rockets vs. Lakers Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet
Now, the series prices. The Rockets, as of right now, are a -750 favorite.
That is absolutely massive. As a matter of fact, that makes the Rockets by far the largest favorite out of any of the first-round matchups.
That feels about right to me.
If everybody was healthy, I’d put the Lakers as a slight favorite somewhere in that -150 to -200 range, but they’re not.
Lakers’ Roster Issues Without Luka & Austin Reaves
This Lakers roster carries most of its talent in its top three guys. Without Luka and Austin, the Rockets just have a massive talent advantage.
I’ve talked about this a lot this season, but the Lakers’ roster is incredibly flawed. It’s one of the least athletic rosters in the league. They’re incredibly light on perimeter defense, rim protection, scheme versatility at the center position, jump shooting, ball handling talent, and overall basketball IQ.
This roster is just not very good.
The reason why the Lakers looked like one of the best teams in the NBA at the end of March came down to three things:
- Luka Dončić was playing the best basketball in the world.
- Austin Reaves was healthy and filling in as the number two.
- And LeBron James had reinvented himself as this Draymond-type connector, filling all the gaps.
But losing Luka and Austin completely changed that dynamic.
LeBron had to revert back to being the primary ball handler. He’s still very good, but nowhere near Luka’s level. And he doesn’t have a reliable secondary ball handler anymore.
That creates a massive drop-off, not just in talent, but in all the little things LeBron was doing: defensive rebounding, rotations, transition play, and connecting the offense.
Without Luka and Austin, this just isn’t a very good team.
That’s why the Rockets being -750 at Hard Rock Bet makes a lot of sense.
The Rebounding Battle: Biggest Key of the Series
Before we get into scheme, we have to talk about rebounding.
The Rockets rebounded 47% of their misses in the regular season against the Lakers. Since then, the Lakers have lost two of their best rebounders.
Luka led the team in defensive rebounds at 7.1 per game. Austin was fourth at 4.1. That’s over 11 rebounds per game gone.
In their first real tests without those guys, the Warriors and Suns games, they gave up 33 offensive rebounds combined. The Lakers might be dead on arrival in this matchup simply because they can’t keep the Rockets off the glass.
If they want any chance, they need elite effort: box outs, crashing from the perimeter, and big rebounding performances from guys like Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton.
How the Lakers Can Defend Houston
On the first shot defense, there is some opportunity.
In pick-and-roll, the Lakers need to mix coverages—double occasionally, blitz, switch, drop—just keep Houston’s scorers off balance.
Against Reed Sheppard, I would run drop coverage. Force him into pull-up threes and keep Ayton near the rim.
Switching creates offensive rebounding issues, especially with Alperen Şengün crashing the glass.
On post-ups and ISOs, JJ Redick has shown a consistent approach: heavy help, shrinking the floor, and forcing kick-outs.
Zone defense could also play a role. The Rockets scored just 0.93 points per possession against zone this year and shot only 32.5% from three.
So expect some zone looks to force Houston into jump shots.
How the Rockets Can Attack the Lakers
Defensively, Houston should pressure LeBron. Full court pressure, wear him down, and force other ball handlers to step up.
Amen Thompson could be used to neutralize Luke Kennard, one of the Lakers’ key offensive connectors.
If LeBron gets into rhythm as a passer, that benefits the Lakers. But if Houston forces him to score in isolation and tires him out, that plays into their advantage.
On offense, Houston should continue leaning on rebounding and transition opportunities.
Lakers’ Offensive Strategy
For the Lakers, it’s about targeting weak defenders.
Attack Reed Sheppard and Şengün in every action. LeBron needs to create advantages and let role players capitalize.
If they can generate good looks and ride their home crowd, maybe they can steal a game or two.
Jason Timpf’s Rockets vs. Lakers Pick
- Rockets in five: +300
I think this series will be more competitive game-to-game than it looks on paper, but ultimately, talent wins. The Rockets just have more good basketball players.
LeBron’s best-case scenario is playing Kevin Durant to a draw, but KD has had the better season.
When you go down the roster, Houston has the edge across the board. And in the playoffs, you need depth. The Rockets have it. The Lakers don’t.
Rockets in five.
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