On this week’s podcast, Danny Parkins joined me to break down some of our favorite NFL futures and win total bets heading into the season.
And honestly, one of the first numbers that jumped out to me was Dallas at 8.5 wins.
Cowboys Under 8.5 Wins
Dallas might be the easiest under on the board.
Last season, the Cowboys faced eight teams with winning records and went 1-7 in those games. Now they go from having one of the easiest schedules in football to one of the toughest. Nobody in the league has a bigger swing from easy to difficult.
And once you actually look through the schedule, it gets ugly fast. They’re facing good offensive coaches, quality quarterbacks, and a schedule full of potential shootouts. Meanwhile, the NFC East is going to be better across the board. The Giants should improve, and Washington with a healthy Jayden Daniels is going to be a real problem.
This number sitting at 8.5 feels dangerous because the public is always going to want to bet Dallas to go over.
Danny Parkins on Dallas’ Defensive Rebuild
Trips to Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and Seattle make for one of the tougher road draws in the league.
And while Dallas clearly attacked its biggest weakness this offseason by investing heavily on defense and bringing in a new coordinator, there are still major questions attached to this team.
If the defense becomes league average and the offense stays healthy, Dallas absolutely has the ceiling to be one of the best offenses in football with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens. But those are still pretty big ifs.
Lions Over 10.5 Wins
Detroit to finish over 10.5 wins initially sounds aggressive until you actually look at the schedule.
The Lions have one of the easiest schedules in football, more home games than road games, and they addressed one of their biggest concerns by stabilizing the offensive line. I already trust the coaching staff, the front office, and Jared Goff. This feels like a team that’s built to stack regular-season wins again.
And remember, we’re talking about an 11-6 football team in a 17-game season. That’s not some outrageous projection.
Arizona, Miami, and Carolina are all manageable road games, and the overall draw sets up really well for them.
Danny Parkins on the NFC North Balance
Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago all feel like teams living in roughly the same range this year, which is why there’s at least some hesitation betting any NFC North team to go over their number.
The division is simply going to be a grind every single week.
Bears Over 9.5 Wins
This Bears number is fascinating because I don’t really understand why Chicago is projected to finish a full game below Detroit and Green Bay.
Yes, there are obvious regression concerns. Chicago led the league in takeaways last season, won a bunch of close games, and got incredibly lucky with offensive line health. That probably won’t happen again.
The offensive line continuity alone is hard to repeat. Nearly the entire group played over 90% of the snaps last year, and now Drew Dalman is already out of the picture at center.
But this ultimately comes down to Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.
We’ve seen this before with great quarterbacks in great systems. The second year in the system is usually when the leap happens. It happened with Mahomes. It happened with Lamar Jackson. And I think Caleb is set up for that exact jump.
The Bears have explosive young weapons all over the field. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland all fit perfectly with what Ben Johnson wants to do offensively. I think Chicago genuinely believes it can become one of the best offenses in football this season.
Danny Parkins on the Bears’ Ceiling
The regression arguments are fair. Chicago probably won’t lead the league in takeaways again, and the number of fourth-quarter comeback wins is almost certainly coming down.
But even with that expected regression, this still doesn’t feel like an eight-win football team.
Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson feel like a special pairing, and the offensive ceiling is incredibly high. If everything clicks, Chicago has the talent to become a top-10 offense immediately, maybe even top five.
That offensive upside alone is enough to believe the Bears can get into double-digit wins.
Packers Under 10.5 Wins
Green Bay is one of the tougher teams to figure out because there’s still a lot to like.
I trust the Packers’ draft-and-development model as much as almost anybody in the league. Jordan Love has talent. The skill group is deep. But I do have questions defensively, especially with changes on the coaching staff and some uncertainty in the front seven.
And the bigger issue may simply be the division itself.
The NFC North is loaded with creative offensive coaches, improving quarterbacks, and legitimate playoff-caliber rosters across the board. There are no easy games anymore.
Danny Parkins on the NFC North Grind
Honestly, it’s not crazy to think last place in the NFC North could still finish with eight wins.
That’s how deep the division feels right now, and it’s why betting overs on teams in this division becomes difficult. These teams are likely going to beat up on each other all season.
Chiefs Under 10.5 Wins
Kansas City’s total is fascinating because they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but the division around them finally feels much stronger.
The Raiders should be more competitive. Denver may quietly have the best overall roster in the division. And Justin Herbert finally has an offensive line.
I do think Kansas City fixed some offensive issues. Kenneth Walker is a huge addition. Josh Simmons helps at left tackle. And a healthy Mahomes obviously changes everything.
But there are still legitimate questions. Travis Kelce is older. Rashee Rice still comes with uncertainty. And defensively, they’re asking several young players to contribute immediately.
Danny Parkins on Betting Against Mahomes
It’s always dangerous betting against Andy Reid with a healthy Mahomes because Reid consistently gives Kansas City one of the highest floors in football.
Walker also gives them something they really haven’t had in years: a true difference-maker at running back. And if Rashee Rice stays available while Xavier Worthy continues developing, Kansas City absolutely still has the potential to become one of the most dangerous offenses in football again.
That’s why this feels less like a fade of the Chiefs and more like a belief that they’re probably closer to “really good” than completely dominant this season.
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