Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10 with Ariel Epstein

It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and I’ve got some props.

Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards

Let’s start with the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.

I’ve been going on an absolute rant about Buffalo because everybody keeps telling me how much better this Bills defense has looked over the last couple of weeks.

But have we actually looked at who they’ve played?

First, they faced Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. Then Tyler Huntley got hurt, leaving the Ravens with their third-string quarterback.

The following week, Buffalo faced Carson Wentz, who struggled so badly that Minnesota went out and traded for Kirk Cousins.

That’s who the Bills have improved against.

Now I’m not saying Geno Smith is Patrick Mahomes, but he’s had plenty of success at home and against defenses that struggle to stop opposing quarterbacks.

That’s why I’m taking Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards.

Smith is averaging just under 231 passing yards per game at home this season, going over 218.5 in three of four games.

He’s also faced four defenses ranked in the bottom 10 against the pass, clearing this number three times while averaging 269.5 passing yards per game.

And guess what? Buffalo is still allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks.

Before the last two games against backup quarterbacks, six of the eight quarterbacks to face the Bills had gone over their passing yard props.

So let’s not act like Buffalo suddenly has one of the best pass defenses in football because it shut down a couple of struggling quarterbacks.

Give me Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards at home against the Bills.

Bijan Robinson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Next up, we’ve got the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Atlanta Falcons.

I like Bijan Robinson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards, and there’s a lot to like about this matchup for Atlanta’s running back.

When Robinson faces defenses ranked in the bottom 10 against pass-catching running backs, he’s averaging 35.5 receiving yards per game.

He’s cleared this number in seven of his last 10 games in those situations.

Now look at Kansas City.

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season. This isn’t something that just started happening, either. Kansas City ranked in the bottom 10 in this category last year.

In fact, 11 of the 17 running backs to face the Chiefs this season have gone over their receiving-yard props.

And there’s a reason for that.

When linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill commit to the A-gaps or B-gaps on simulated pressures, running backs can leak out into the flat or run wheel routes.

That forces the defense into slower zone rotations and creates opportunities for running backs to catch the football.

Robinson is exactly the kind of player who can take advantage of that.

The numbers are already on our side, and Kansas City’s defensive tendencies make this an even better matchup.

We’re going Bijan Robinson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards.

Jordan Love Under 251.5 Passing Yards

Time to fade a quarterback.

I’ve got Jordan Love Under 251.5 Passing Yards against the Minnesota Vikings.

This number was actually 259.5 earlier in the week before dropping to 251.5, and I still like the under.

Here’s something that might surprise you.

When Josh Jacobs is out, Love is actually throwing the football less.

You would think losing your starting running back would mean the quarterback needs to throw more, especially with Green Bay not showing much trust in Marshawn Lloyd.

But that hasn’t been the case.

Without Jacobs, Love is averaging 228 passing yards per game against top-10 defenses.

At home, that number drops to 215 passing yards, and he’s gone under this total in three of four games.

Now I know what you’re thinking.

Didn’t Love throw for 387 yards against Minnesota in Week 1?

Yes, he did. But this Vikings defense looks a whole lot better than the one we saw earlier in the season.

Minnesota is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

And if you’ve watched what defensive coordinator Brian Flores has been doing, you know how difficult this defense can be to prepare for.

The Vikings disguise their blitzes extremely well and have brought pressure on more than 80% of dropbacks in certain games.

Linebackers Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr., along with Minnesota’s versatile safeties, make it difficult for quarterbacks to identify where the pressure is coming from.

That means Love may have to rely more on quick throws and getting the football to his running backs rather than waiting for longer passing plays to develop.

I’m also hoping Kirk Cousins can help Minnesota sustain drives and avoid turnovers, keeping this defense from spending too much time on the field.

Everything points to a tougher passing matchup for Love than what he saw in Week 1.

Take Jordan Love Under 251.5 Passing Yards.

Javonte Williams Under 64.5 Rushing Yards

The Dallas Cowboys are hosting the San Francisco 49ers, and I’m going under on Dallas running back Javonte Williams.

The number is 64.5 rushing yards.

At home against defenses ranked in the top 10 against the run, Williams is averaging just 51 rushing yards per game.

He’s stayed under this number in six of eight games in those situations.

The Cowboys have faced only one top-10 rushing defense this season. That was Tampa Bay, and Williams finished with just 45 rushing yards.

Here’s my issue with Williams in this matchup.

He averages around four yards per carry, and a lot of his production comes from breaking tackles and getting into open space for those bigger gains.

Good luck doing that against San Francisco.

The 49ers have an incredible defensive front that does an excellent job clogging up running lanes, especially up the middle.

And even if Williams manages to get through that first level, who’s waiting for him?

Fred Warner. One of the best linebackers in football.

And the 49ers could also have Dre Greenlaw available if he’s cleared to play.

That’s not exactly the kind of defense you want to face when your rushing production depends on breaking tackles and finding room to run.

I don’t see Williams getting those explosive carries that he needs to clear this number.

Give me Javonte Williams Under 64.5 Rushing Yards.

Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

Last but certainly not least, we’ve got Sunday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals.

One thing I always like to do when looking at divisional games is go back and see what happened in the previous meeting.

And there’s something Cincinnati didn’t do nearly enough against Pittsburgh.

Get Chase Brown involved in the passing game.

That’s exactly what the Bengals need to do this time around.

Pittsburgh has allowed the most receiving yards per game to running backs this season.

Four of the last five running backs to face the Steelers have gone over their receiving yard props.

Now look at Brown’s numbers. He’s averaging 16 more receiving yards per game at home this season.

And when facing defenses ranked in the bottom 10 against pass-catching running backs, Brown has gone over his receiving yard prop in five of six games while averaging 33 receiving yards.

I love those numbers, especially when you consider what Pittsburgh can do up front.

You’ve got T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

And we know Cincinnati’s offensive line has been an Achilles’ heel for this team.

Joe Burrow doesn’t want to take sacks. He certainly doesn’t want to get hurt.

So what’s the best way to keep that Pittsburgh pass rush from getting to him?

Get the football out quickly.

I’m expecting Burrow to look for Brown on checkdowns and screen passes rather than holding the ball and allowing those pass rushers to get home.

The Steelers have struggled against receiving backs all season, and Cincinnati has the perfect opportunity to exploit that weakness.

I’m taking Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards against Pittsburgh.