NFL Touchdown Predictions: The Best Anytime TD Bets for Week 10

We’re doing a little price shopping for Week 10, and there is some great value on the board for our NFL touchdown picks!

Sometimes, value is a star running back at a shorter price than we’re accustomed to seeing. Other times, it’s a receiver whose recent results have made him a little less popular. And occasionally, we’re asking a quarterback to keep the ball and find the end zone himself.

I’ve got a little of everything on this week’s NFL touchdown betting card at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Here are my top anytime touchdown bets for Sunday, November 15.

NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Picks

• Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD -115
• A.J. Brown Anytime TD +200
• Cam Ward Anytime TD +525
• Matthew Golden Anytime TD +165

All referenced odds are subject to change.

Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-115)

I know. We’re value hunting, and the first pick has a minus sign.

Hear me out.

When Indianapolis has been clicking over the past year and a half, we’ve seen Jonathan Taylor priced around -200 or even shorter in certain matchups. Getting him at -115 deserves a look, even with the Colts’ current issues. And there are plenty of those.

Indianapolis has moved pieces, the offense isn’t exactly overflowing with firepower, and Taylor’s workload became a concern while his name was floating around in trade rumors.

But he’s still here. So are Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren. That’s enough of an offensive foundation for me to have interest against Miami.

The Dolphins rank 28th in defensive EPA per play and won’t have Malik Willis at quarterback. They’re leaning into their youth, and I think there’s a reasonable chance their offense struggles to sustain drives.

That could give Indianapolis extra possessions or some favorable starting field position. The Colts don’t have to suddenly look like an offensive powerhouse to put Taylor in scoring position.

I’m not going to pretend we have a guarantee that his workload returns to its previous level. But with the season only about halfway over and Taylor remaining in Indianapolis, I’m not ready to assume they’ll keep him on a restricted count.

Near the goal line, he’s still the guy I expect to get the ball.

And yes, Seth McGowan scored for us last week. We also caught a break when Taylor lost his cleat on the previous play, allowing McGowan to enter and finish the drive. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good!

Give me JT at a very generous price against a bad team.

A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+195)

This is a matchup-and-price bet, not a declaration that everything is suddenly perfect with A.J. Brown.

He’s practiced this week. That’s encouraging, but practicing and being completely healthy aren’t the same thing.

The recent production hasn’t been fantastic when healthy, either. There have been drops, and I understand why bettors and fantasy managers have cooled on him.

Still, +195 against this Detroit defense? I’m interested.

The Lions rank 29th in defensive EPA per play. They’ve allowed the most air yards in football and the third-most passing touchdowns, despite playing one fewer game than the Raiders and Cardinals, the two teams ahead of them in that category.

That’s a pretty appealing collection of defensive problems for Drake Maye and his receivers to attack.

We’ve also seen Brown produce alpha-receiver performances within the past calendar year, commanding targets and air yards. The ceiling isn’t some distant memory from five seasons ago.

I’d expect this offense to want him involved, and Detroit provides a reasonable opportunity to make that happen.

Cam Ward Anytime Touchdown (+525)

Cam Ward at +525 is a long shot, and Tennessee being a massive underdog doesn’t exactly give us a comfortable game script.

However, his performance against Cincinnati gave me something to work with.

Ward went toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow in an overtime game, and I don’t think we can write off everything he did as a product of the Bengals’ defense.

He looked more comfortable working through his progressions. The decisions were better. And he showed a willingness to use his legs, finishing with seven carries.

Brian Daboll and company have also leaned more into a gap-running scheme, which has helped free up Tony Pollard. Alongside that, we’ve seen more of the run-pass option element from Ward.

He even ran in a two-point conversion last week. That doesn’t count as a touchdown for this bet, of course, but it’s another example of Tennessee being willing to use him as a runner near the goal line.

Ward already has two rushing touchdowns this season, so we’re not asking him to do something completely foreign.

The scenario I like is pretty simple: Pollard gets the defense flowing toward him, Ward keeps the ball, and suddenly there’s a path to the pylon.

At +525, though, I think there’s enough rushing involvement and enough recent development in this offense to justify a small wager.

Matthew Golden Anytime Touchdown (+165)

Brian Flores probably isn’t spending the week deciding whether he should pressure Jordan Love. He’s going to bring the blitz. Then, he’s probably going to bring it some more.

That makes Matthew Golden especially interesting.

When Love has been under pressure this season, Golden’s first-read rate is nearly 20 percentage points higher than Christian Watson’s. Golden also has the higher target share and air-yard share in those situations.

That’s a meaningful distinction for this matchup. We’re looking at the receiver Love has been trying to find when the pocket gets uncomfortable, against a defense that makes quarterbacks uncomfortable for a living.

Pressure and blitzing aren’t interchangeable, and Minnesota sending extra rushers doesn’t guarantee Golden gets the ball. But his involvement when Love is pressured gives us a useful angle.

Additionally, Golden has a whopping 16 targets inside the 20 and 11 end-zone targets this season. Pair that volume with his strong red-zone separation numbers, and there’s a lot to like beyond the matchup alone.

He’s getting opportunities near the end zone, creating space in that area, and drawing Love’s attention under pressure.

Sign me up.

Good luck with all of your Week 10 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, and keep your wagers in line with your confidence. The longest price on the card doesn’t need the biggest bet.