Four weeks ago, UMass was undefeated and enjoying its best start to a football season in years. Fast forward to now, the Minutemen are trying to avoid their fifth consecutive loss.
UMass (4-4, 1-3 MAC) returns home Wednesday night to face Ball State after dropping four straight games, most recently a 35-16 defeat at UConn on October 23.
The Minutemen have struggled offensively during their losing streak, failing to score more than 19 points in any of those four contests. One reason for optimism is the return of quarterback Pop Watson, who missed two games with an ankle injury before returning against UConn.
Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC), meanwhile, arrives in Amherst riding a two-game winning streak after defeating Bowling Green 32-31 and Sacramento State 34-17.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU from McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts.
Ball State vs. UMass Odds Today
UMass is a short 2.5-point home favorite for Wednesday night’s MACtion at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: UMass -2.5 (-120) | Ball State +2.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: UMass -145 | Ball State +120
- Total: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Referenced odds subject to change.
Ball State vs. UMass Prediction
UMass -2.5 (-120): The Minutemen have an opportunity to turn things around tonight, and I believe this is a favorable matchup for them to do exactly that.
Ball State’s two-game winning streak looks a little less impressive upon closer inspection. The Cardinals needed a last-minute touchdown to escape Bowling Green with a 32-31 victory before beating Sacramento State, and neither result changes the fact that they’ve been one of the MAC’s worst road teams this season.
Ball State is just 1-4 away from home, with its only road victory coming against a Bowling Green team that’s now 2-7. The Cardinals are also giving up 35.3 points and nearly 423 yards per game.
The Minutemen have a significant advantage on the other side of the ball, allowing just 21.1 points and 324.1 yards per game. They’ve also been much better at protecting the football and forcing turnovers, entering Wednesday with a +7 turnover margin compared to Ball State’s -4.
With Pop Watson having additional time to recover from his ankle injury, I expect UMass to take advantage of Ball State’s defensive and road struggles. The Minutemen only need to win by a field goal to cover, and I like their chances of doing that at home.
- Best Bet: UMass -2.5 (-120)
Betting Splits at Hard Rock Bet
- Moneyline: UMass has pulled 67% of all moneyline tickets and 94% of the handle.
- Spread: UMass -2.5 accounts for 82% of all spread bets and 81% of the money wagered.
- Total: Over 49.5 has received 75% of all total wagers and 83% of the handle.
Ball State vs. UMass Game Info
- šļø Location: McGuirk Alumni Stadium – Amherst, Massachusetts
- š Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
- ā° Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
- šŗ Where to Watch: ESPNU
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