HALF-TIME: Argentina vs Spain Predictions & Updated Odds for the World Cup Final

This is it – the World Cup Final. After 103 matches across 39 days, the 2026 World Cup comes down to one final showdown. Spain and Argentina meet Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium (New York New Jersey Stadium) with soccer‘s biggest prize on the line. One nation will lift the World Cup trophy and etch its name into history while the other will have to reset and go again in four years time.

Spain has looked every bit the pre-tournament favorite, eliminating Portugal, Belgium, and France on its way to the Final. Meanwhile, Argentina’s path has been impressive in it’s own, different way. The holders knocked off Egypt after a remarkable 2 goal comeback, Switzerland in extra time, and scored twice late to beat England, booking a second straight appearance in the World Cup Final.

Whether you’re backing La Roja to win their second World Cup title or Lionel Messi and Argentina to defend their crown, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has a full slate of betting markets for the biggest match in football.

Let’s dive into the latest Spain vs. Argentina odds before breaking down my favorite World Cup Final predictions and best bets.

Spain vs Argentina Odds (Half-Time Update)

If you believe the game will be settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the 3-way moneyline is for you. Bettors can take either side to win, or bet on a draw… and World Cup Final extra time. Here’s how the odds look at half-time:

• 🇪🇸 Spain to Win: +140 (was +130 pre-match)
• 🪢 Tie/Draw: +135 (was +200 pre-match)
• 🇦🇷 Argentina to Win: +325 (was +250 pre-match)

Argentina vs Spain Odds to Win the Trophy (Updated at Half-Time)

Four of the last five World Cup Finals have gone to extra time. If you don’t want to risk a 3-way moneyline prediction failing due to the draw, bettors can simply pick which team wins the trophy. Current to lift the trophy odds are:

• 🇪🇸 Spain to Win The Trophy: -180 (was -160 pre-match)
• 🇦🇷 Argentina to Win The Trophy: +145 (was +130 pre-match)

Who is favored to win the World Cup, Spain or Argentina?

Spain is currently the betting favorite to win the 2026 World Cup Final. They are priced at -180 to win the trophy, which carries an implied probability of around 64% that Spain will win the World Cup (as determined by our betting odds calculator). Despite a 0-0 first half, they’re more of a favorite due to the first half performance than they were before kickoff.

Argentina, despite being the current World Cup Champions, are the underdog here. Argentina’s +145 odds to win the trophy carries and implied probability of around 40%.

Spain vs Argentina Predictions for the World Cup Final

This is it – the World Cup Final – match 104 of 104 at the 2026 World Cup. It’s been an incredible, entertaining tournament and I’m excited to bet on it one final time with Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. As has become my process, I’ll start with the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub to help formulate my Spain vs Argentina World Cup Final predictions.

World Cup Final Prediction: Spain Moneyline +130

I’m backing Spain to dethrone the defending champions and lift the World Cup trophy on Sunday afternoon.

Spain entered this tournament as the betting favorites, and if anything, they’ve only strengthened that case over the past month. Luis de la Fuente’s side already knows what it takes to win a major international tournament after capturing the 2024 European Championship, and while this will be the first World Cup Final for these players, the stage itself won’t be unfamiliar.

The talent speaks for itself. Rodri, a former Ballon d’Or winner, dictates the tempo from midfield as well as anyone in the world, while 19-year-old Lamine Yamal continues to look every bit like a future Ballon d’Or winner in his own right. Blend that star power with an experienced supporting cast, and it’s easy to see why Spain have looked like the tournament’s most complete team.

What impresses me most, though, is the way they control matches.

Spain are exceptional in possession, suffocating without the ball, and ruthlessly efficient when chances do arrive. They’ve conceded just one goal all tournament, and the underlying numbers suggest that defensive record is no fluke. Throughout the knockout rounds, they’ve barely allowed opponents to create anything of note:

• Austria: 0.32 xG
• Portugal: 0.63 xG
• Belgium: 0.34 xG
• France: 0.31 xG

Those aren’t just good defensive performances – they’re complete defensive masterclasses against some of the best attacking nations in the world.

I’ve been skeptical of Argentina throughout this tournament, and while they’ve continued to prove doubters wrong, I still believe Spain are the better side from top to bottom. Argentina have Lionel Messi, immense experience, and the unmistakable belief that comes with being defending world champions. Those are genuine advantages – but Spain’s ability to monopolize possession, close passing lanes, and squeeze the life out of matches makes them an incredibly difficult opponent for anyone – including Argentina.

At plus money, I’m happy to back what I believe is the best team in the tournament to finish the job.

✅ World Cup Final Score Prediction: First Half Correct Score 0-0 +140

Spain have only conceded one goal the entire tournament so we can expect that goals are going to be hard to come by, and Stats Hub has keyed us in to a few trends that lead me to believe 0-0 at the break has a great chance:

• In 10 of Spain’s last 12 World Cup Knockout matches, the first half has resulted in a tie
• The half-time score has been exactly 0-0 in each of Spain’s last three World Cup Knockout Stage matches against teams from a different region.
• The over/under 2.5 goals market has hit in eight of Spain’s last ten World Cup Knockout Stage matches.

So from this we can gather that Spain generally plays low scoring games, and has an impressive track record of being tied at the break.

Argentina have also been slow starters at this tournament. They’ve scored ten goals so far in four knockout games, but only two of them came before half. We may get goals, but I like betting on them to arrive late. I like the 0-0 scoreline at half.

Anytime Goalscorer: Dani Olmo +375 (with Super Sub!)

I’ll say this upfront: I don’t love anytime goalscorer bets in this match. Everything points toward a tight, low-scoring World Cup Final.

That said, I do like Dani Olmo Anytime Goalscorer (+375). I know what you’re thinking: He hasn’t scored all tournament.

That’s true, but the underlying process has been encouraging. Olmo continues to find dangerous pockets of space and get into good attacking positions, and at +375 I’m willing to bet that the finishing variance swings back in his favor.

But the real thesis of this play comes from Hard Rock Bet’s Super Sub feature that gives us a terrific safety net. Spain has consistently replaced Olmo with Mikel Merino late in matches, and if that happens again, Merino takes over the wager. Merino has already scored two knockout-stage winners for Spain, making him about as good a substitute as you could ask for in this market.

At +375, we’re effectively getting exposure to a dangerous attacking midfielder with a proven scoring record for club and country, plus one of Spain’s most clinical late-game finishers if the substitution pattern holds. That’s enough value for me to take another shot on Olmo in the World Cup Final.

The World Cup Final Betting Card

So here’s the full betting card for the World Cup Final. As always I invite anyone to tail, fade (I respect it), or if you’re feeling confident – you can always bundle them into a World Cup Final Same Game Parlay!

• Spain Moneyline +130
• Half time result: Tie +140
• Dani Olmo Anytime Goalscorer +400

World Cup Final Information: Argentina vs Spain

• 📍 Location: New York New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium), East Rutherford, New Jersey
• 📅 Date: Sunday, July 19
• ⏰ Start Time: 3:00pm ET
• 📺 Where to Watch: FOX, Telemundo, Universo
• 🏆 Stage: World Cup FINAL

All referenced odds are subject to change.

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