College Football Week 11 Underdog Picks: Kelly in Vegas’ 3 Best Bets & Parlay

I’ve got three underdogs you should be looking at for Week 11 of college football.

If all three pull off the upset, the parlay pays a whopping 111-1 at Hard Rock Bet. I even used a 20% profit boost under my rewards that added another $2,100 to my potential payout.

Now, I’ve got to put a big asterisk here. I’m giving out three double-digit underdogs I think can win outright.

Do I think this parlay is going to hit? Well, there’s a reason it’s 111-1. But I’m playing it anyway.

You can also take all three teams against the spread individually and sprinkle a little on their outright Winner odds.

And for new customers, this is the last week to bet $5 and get $500 in bonus bets.

Kansas State +10.5 at TCU

Go ahead and call me a homer.

I went to Kansas State, and I’m backing my Wildcats as 10.5-point underdogs against TCU.

But I’m telling you right now, this is an absolute spot play.

We backed TCU +7.5 last Friday night, and the Horned Frogs got their guts ripped out in a heartbreaking loss at Arizona.

Here’s the problem with TCU. This team cannot run the football, and it cannot finish drives.

The Horned Frogs rank 128th nationally in rushing offense at fewer than 108 yards per game. They’re 121st in red-zone offense and 100th in scoring at just 23.8 points per game.

Jaden Craig completed 28 of 41 passes for 232 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Arizona.

And guess what? Those 28 points were TCU’s season high against a Power Four opponent.

How are you supposed to blow somebody out when you can’t even score 30 points?

Now, I know Kansas State has been dealing with absolute quarterback hell.

Avery Johnson has been hurt, Jacob Knuth has also been banged up, and Collin Klein has been going back and forth between Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff.

It hasn’t been fun.

But Kansas State can ground and pound with the best of them. The Wildcats rank 26th nationally in rushing offense at nearly 200 yards per game.

And before last week’s loss, their games had been close. They lost 31-26 at Cincinnati, 28-17 at Arizona State and 27-24 at Colorado.

TCU also has a problem with penalties. The Horned Frogs rank 113th nationally in penalty yards, while Kansas State is among the top 10.

So we’re asking a team that can’t score 30 points against Power Four opponents to cover double digits?

Absolutely not.

I think Kansas State can keep this close enough to have a chance to win late in Fort Worth.

Give me Kansas State +10.5 and Kansas State +300 on the moneyline.

Duke +13.5 at Miami

Oh, what a revenge spot this is!

Remember, Manny Diaz got sent packing by Miami after the 2021 season when the Hurricanes decided to bring in Mario Cristobal.

And then this past offseason, Darian Mensah left Duke for Miami and took wide receiver Cooper Barkate with him.

Now Diaz and the Duke Blue Devils are marching into Hard Rock Stadium with a giant chip on their shoulders.

And make no mistake, this Duke team has been fire.

The Blue Devils have outscored their last two opponents 88-5, including an absolute 41-3 beatdown of NC State last weekend.

Nate Sheppard went wild against the Wolfpack with 217 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries. He added a receiving touchdown and now leads the country with 21 total touchdowns.

But the biggest reason I like Duke in this spot is its defense.

The Blue Devils are allowing just 13 points per game, fifth-best in the country.

And their two losses? Both came by four points or fewer.

They lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech and 24-20 to North Carolina. Don’t forget, this is also a Duke team that went on the road and beat Illinois outright as a 6.5-point underdog earlier this season.

Now let’s talk about Miami.

The Hurricanes are coming off that gut-wrenching loss at Notre Dame. They fell behind 24-3, and it was never really close.

They’re also without Malachi Toney, who underwent ankle surgery and isn’t expected back before the College Football Playoff.

And have you guys watched this Miami secondary?

They’ve been torched by Florida State and North Carolina, two teams that had opportunities to beat them.

The Hurricanes are allowing roughly 260 passing yards per game, ranking 127th nationally.

This is not a team I want to lay nearly two touchdowns with.

Miami still has a shot at the College Football Playoff, but there’s an awful lot of pressure on the Hurricanes after last week’s loss.

Meanwhile, Manny Diaz has a few tricks up his sleeve, and I think he’s going to find ways to exploit this defense.

Do not sell the Blue Devils short.

I’ll take Duke +13.5 and Duke +425 on the moneyline at Hard Rock Bet.

Northwestern +13.5 at Ohio State

Now, this last one is a stretch.

But so was Michigan State last week when the Spartans were 14.5-point underdogs against big brother Michigan.

And we all know how that worked out.

Here’s the reality. Ohio State doesn’t lose back-to-back games.

Well, guess what? The Buckeyes just did.

They lost at USC and followed that up with another loss at home against Oregon.

This team hasn’t looked the same since Julian Sayin got hurt on October 17.

And Luke Fahey just isn’t the answer right now.

He’s 0-2 as a starter. His numbers against Oregon looked decent on paper, but don’t be fooled. He picked up 178 passing yards and both of his touchdowns in garbage time.

Oregon scored 38 unanswered points against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes managed just 53 rushing yards on 21 carries.

Now, I know Northwestern is also dealing with quarterback injuries.

Aidan Chiles is out, and Nicco Marchiol is getting another opportunity under center. He was fine against Iowa last week, completing 24 of 32 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown.

Northwestern lost 24-10, but the quarterback wasn’t the reason. The Wildcats went just 1-for-11 on third down. That’s not something I expect to happen again.

But here’s what we’re really betting on. This Northwestern defense.

The Wildcats pounded Penn State, played Indiana close and even led Oregon at halftime in Eugene.

They’re also fourth nationally in turnover margin at +12.

And Ohio State? Its red zone defense ranks 101st in the country.

So we’ve got two backup quarterbacks playing in this game, and the one wearing scarlet and gray is laying two touchdowns?

Come on, guys.

I know this line was around 11 early Monday before moving higher with the Northwestern quarterback news. But we already anticipated that.

Ohio State’s College Football Playoff hopes are already gone, while Northwestern has a real opportunity to make a statement in Columbus.

I think this Wildcats defense is good enough to give the Buckeyes all kinds of problems.

I’m on Northwestern +13.5 and Northwestern +425 on the moneyline at Hard Rock Bet.

College Football Week 11 Underdog Parlay

• 3-Team Parlay Odds: 111-1 (+11100)
  • Kansas State +300
  • Duke +425
  • Northwestern +425

Let’s see if we can’t cash another big underdog parlay this Saturday!