No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana Picks & Predictions for Heavyweight Big Ten Clash

The Ohio State Buckeyes are headed to Bloomington on Saturday to take on the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game. Kickoff from Memorial Stadium is scheduled for noon ET on FOX.

Ohio State is coming off a throttling of Maryland, while Indiana needed a comeback to get past Nebraska last weekend. The Buckeyes enter as 3.5-point favorites.

I think this is going to be a fascinating matchup, particularly when you look at what Indiana can do defensively against Ohio State’s offensive line.

The Hoosiers have one of the most athletic defensive fronts in the country, and we saw them take over last week’s game against Nebraska. But Ohio State has already been tested against an elite defensive line in Texas, and the Buckeyes have the most dangerous receiver in college football in Jeremiah Smith.

There are a few things I’m paying close attention to in this one, starting with whether Ohio State can give its quarterback enough time to get the ball downfield.

Can Ohio State’s Offensive Line Handle Indiana’s Pass Rush?

In order to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith, you actually need time.

This Ohio State offensive line held up really well against an elite defensive front from Texas. But Indiana presents a completely different challenge.

Josh Burnham, Tyrique Tucker, Mario Landino, Tobi Osunsanmi and Stephen Daley are an elite group.

They play as fast and physical as any defensive line in the country right now.

I thought they were the primary reason Indiana started making stops against Nebraska last weekend, and they were doing it while only rushing four defenders.

The Hoosiers finished with five sacks against Nebraska. They also had five sacks against Ohio State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.

That’s what concerns me about this matchup.

Texas is going to beat you with mass. They’re a big group up front, apart from Colin Simmons, who’s an absolute freak athletically.

Indiana is much more about twitch and chaos. They’re extremely athletic, and they create pressure in a way that’s going to test Ohio State’s protection.

The Buckeyes have essentially the same group up front that struggled against Indiana in the conference championship last season.

And while Julian Sayin has improved athletically, particularly when it comes to breaking through arm tackles inside the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield, I still wonder how he’s going to handle the pressure Indiana can create.

He did a great job against Iowa, but it’s hard not to throw for 350 yards when Jeremiah Smith is accounting for more than 200 of them.

If Ohio State can protect Sayin, I think it’s inevitable that No. 4 is going to get loose.

How Does Indiana Defend Jeremiah Smith?

The other thing that concerns me about this matchup for Indiana, if the Hoosiers can’t get pressure, is that they’re a predominantly zone-based football team.

They don’t play a lot of man-to-man coverage.

And we’ve talked about how counterintuitive it can feel trying to defend Jeremiah Smith.

You look at a player that talented and think you have to dedicate multiple defenders to him. You want to bracket him, keep eyes on him and play zone everywhere else.

But that’s been a problem against this Ohio State offense.

The Buckeyes are doing such a great job of getting Smith matched up against safeties, allowing him to work double moves and get behind defenses.

It’s a terrifying proposition to even try to stop him.

I almost look at it this way: If Jeremiah has 200 receiving yards, fine. The offense can’t have 400.

You have to figure out how to eliminate everything else and prevent him from turning those receptions into even bigger plays.

That’s also why I’m paying attention to the availability of Devin McCuin, the transfer from UTSA who has been Ohio State’s number two receiver.

If he’s not healthy, Indiana can dedicate the majority of its attention toward Jeremiah.

That’s not to say the Hoosiers are going to eliminate him, but it certainly changes the way they can approach this offense.

McCuin has been the Robin to Jeremiah Smith’s Batman, and his health is something I’m watching heading into Saturday.

Indiana’s Running Game Is a Massive X-Factor

Indiana’s running game is a massive X-factor in this football game.

Nebraska came into last week’s matchup with a pretty obvious plan: The Cornhuskers were not going to let Indiana run the football.

And that part of the game plan worked.

The Hoosiers finished with just 65 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Nebraska created a lot of havoc in Indiana’s backfield and forced the Hoosiers to find explosive plays elsewhere.

I’m going to tell you right now, if Indiana only has 22 rushes for 65 yards against Ohio State, I think the Hoosiers are probably going to lose.

But I don’t know if Ohio State is going to approach this game the same way Nebraska did.

I don’t feel like Matt Patricia and this Ohio State defense are going to overcommit to stopping the run and allow themselves to get exposed in the secondary.

That’s where Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker become so important.

They’ve been explosive playmakers for Indiana, and a lot of their opportunities against Nebraska came because the Cornhuskers were so committed to stopping the run.

If Ohio State doesn’t give Indiana those same opportunities, the Hoosiers are going to have to find another way to move the football.

And against this Buckeyes defense, I don’t think that’s going to be easy.

Why I’m Expecting a Low-Scoring Game

I think both of these defenses are going to make it extremely difficult to run the football.

Indiana has the athleticism up front to cause Ohio State problems, and I expect the Buckeyes to do a good job limiting the Hoosiers’ rushing attack as well.

I’m going to make a pretty bold prediction here: Less than 80 combined rushing yards between these two teams.

I know that sounds crazy, but I think it’s going to be tough sledding on the ground for both offenses.

Something is telling me to lean toward a lack of points in this football game.

Points are going to be at a premium, and I think red zone execution is going to be massive.

Indiana is a great football team. We know the Hoosiers have a fantastic head coach in Curt Cignetti.

But it’s very obvious to me that they’re not quite as buttoned up as they were last year, even from a pure execution standpoint.

I thought Ohio State was the more talented football team last season, and I think that talent advantage will tip the scales even further in the Buckeyes’ favor this time around.

I also think Ohio State is simply playing better up to this point.

Now, I understand the recent competition is a little lopsided when you compare what these teams have faced. Indiana has had to go up against Northwestern and Nebraska, two teams we now believe are formidable opponents in the Big Ten.

But Ohio State has things rolling in the right direction, and Jeremiah Smith is leading the Heisman race for a reason.

This is a tough football team to stop right now.

Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction

I’ve got Ohio State winning this one, 20-17.