Three games are already in the books in this year’s ALCS, and Game 4 is on tap for tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, as the Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field for an 8 p.m. ET first pitch.
The Guardians now lead the series 2-1 following their 3-2 win Thursday afternoon in Game 3. Cleveland jumped out to an early 1-0 lead when Nathaniel Lowe hit an RBI single in the second inning, but Tampa Bay outfielder Chandler Simpson took some life out of the Progressive Field crowd with his go-ahead two-RBI triple in the fourth.
That was the only blemish on Guardians starter Gavin Williams’ day, as he pitched five innings, allowing two hits and two earned runs while striking out nine batters. Rookie outfielder Petey Halpin then delivered with a clutch go-ahead two-run home run in the fifth inning to put Cleveland on top 3-2. The Guardians’ bullpen took care of the rest, shutting down the Rays’ offense to secure the win and regain home-field advantage in the series.
The Guardians are using a bullpen game tonight, with veteran right-hander Shawn Armstrong serving as the opener. Armstrong has never made a postseason start in his career, but he has also never allowed a run in six playoff appearances, including 5.1 scoreless innings in 2026.
The Rays will hand the ball to All-Star right-hander Nick Martinez for Game 4. The veteran has made one start so far this postseason, pitching 3.2 innings in a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s series-clinching win over the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
Our Rays vs. Guardians predictions, picks, and more are ahead for tonight’s ALCS Game 4 at Progressive Field.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds Tonight for Game 4
The Rays are listed as slight road favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook despite losing Game 3 and trailing 2-1 in the series:
- Moneyline: Rays -115, Guardians -105
- Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+160), Guardians +1.5 (-195)
- Total (Runs): Over 6.5 (-115), Under 6.5 (-105)
Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Winner Odds
The back-and-forth continues, with the Guardians now favored at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to win the ALCS following Thursday afternoon’s 3-2 victory in Game 3:
- Guardians to Win ALCS: -170
- Rays to Win ALCS: +140
Rays vs. Guardians Predictions
If you haven’t gotten involved in the MLB playoff action, now is the time to do so at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Make sure to use the Stats Hub to your advantage for baseball betting insights and trends regarding both teams and their players when placing wagers on Game 4, like our Rays vs. Guardians prediction below:
Guardians vs. Rays Best Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-105)
The Guardians started this postseason with their backs against the wall, facing a 2-0 deficit in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland rallied to win three straight games to advance to the ALCS and now holds a 2-1 series lead over the American League’s No. 1-seeded Rays.
It doesn’t always matter what happened in the regular season or where teams finished in the standings. Momentum is a huge factor come playoff time, and the Guardians have just that.
Cleveland has now won five of its last six games and is coming off a dramatic 3-2 win in Game 3. Even with the Stats Hub noting that the Rays have won eight of their last nine games following a loss, we’re going against that trend and backing the Guardians’ momentum with the support of their home crowd.
- Guardians vs. Rays Moneyline Pick for ALCS Game 4: Guardians Moneyline (-105)
Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props for TB-CLE
Yandy Díaz has recorded at least one hit in five of his six games this postseason, including a double in Game 3. His hits prop is the most-bet selection in the player prop markets:
- Yandy Díaz – Over 0.5 Hits
- Junior Caminero – Over 0.5 Home Runs
- José Ramírez – Over 0.5 Hits
- Junior Caminero – Over 0.5 Hits
- Nick Martinez – Over 2.5 Strikeouts
Rays vs. Guardians Betting Splits for Game 4
Here’s how the action is trending at Hard Rock Bet for tonight’s ALCS matchup:
- The Rays are generating the majority of support on the moneyline with 75% of bets and 83% of the handle.
- Tampa Bay is also receiving strong run line support with 81% of bets and 89% of the handle.
- The Over is getting 63% of bets and 66% of the handle on the total.
Rays vs. Guardians Game Info
- 📍 Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- 📅 Date: Friday, Oct. 16
- ⏰ First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET
- 📺💻 TV/Streaming: TBS, truTV
- ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
- Rays: Nick Martinez
- Guardians: Shawn Armstrong
- 🏆 Stage: ALCS – Game 4
More Ways to Bet
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Referenced odds are subject to change.
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