Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 7 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s find three power hitters in prime spots to go deep today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 7
- Wilyer Abreu +350 (Athletics at Red Sox – Fenway Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
- Kyle Stowers +425 (Angels at Marlins – LoanDepot Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
- Alec Burleson +425 (Rockies at Cardinals – Busch Stadium – 8:15 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Wilyer Abreu
We’ll start in Boston as the Red Sox host the Athletics at Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET. Wilyer Abreu has been on an absolute heater, and you know what they say: never leave the table on a heater.
Abreu has homered in three of his last four games, and Baseball Savant loves the underlying metrics. He’s well above league average in barrel rate, bat speed, and expected slugging percentage, to go along with 20 home runs for Boston.
Jack Perkins will take the mound for the A’s. He has some nice swing-and-miss stuff, but there are clear home-run concerns here. Perkins ranks in just the 12th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed and gives up an above-average number of barrels.
He’s allowed 14 home runs this season, and it’ll be muggy in Boston, just as it will be across much of the country, which never hurts when we’re looking for some extra carry. Abreu is seeing the ball really well right now, and this looks like another spot where he can keep the heater rolling.
MLB Home Run Pick: Kyle Stowers
Next, we’ll head to Miami as the Marlins host the Angels at 7:10 p.m. ET. George Klassen is set to throw a few innings for Los Angeles, and the beginning of his Major League tenure has not exactly gone according to plan.
In just 4.2 innings, he’s been handed a pretty good beating. Klassen’s overall minor-league track record hasn’t been overly inspiring either, with a 4.75 ERA across all levels.
The appealing part of his game, and probably why he’ll get a long look in the majors, is the strikeout stuff — he has posted well over a strikeout per inning in his career. But there’s always an adjustment to Major League hitting, and he’s probably going through it right now.
That brings us to Stowers. He has hit 15 home runs against right-handed pitching in just 262 at-bats this season and has three homers over the last 10 days.
Stowers absolutely mashes the baseball, ranking in the 87th percentile in bat speed and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate, so this is the kind of matchup where one mistake can turn into a souvenir.
Klassen may eventually figure things out, but Stowers is the more proven commodity right now. He’s a lefty with serious thump, and he gets an inexperienced right-hander who is still trying to find his footing at this level.
MLB Home Run Pick: Alec Burleson
Finally, we’ll go to Busch Stadium as the Cardinals host the Rockies at 8:15 p.m. ET. Alec Burleson has been absolutely annihilating the baseball this year, and the advanced metrics are fully on board.
Burleson ranks in the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage, the 75th percentile in barrel rate, and the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate. He’ll face Ryan Feltner, who yields a massive 11% barrel rate and gives up an above-average amount of hard contact.
Coors Field hasn’t been the only reason for Feltner’s poor performance this year, either. He has been equally vulnerable away from Denver, carrying a 5.32 road ERA into this matchup. Burleson gets the right matchup at home against a pitcher who has consistently allowed loud contact.
This is just a great spot for a hitter who has been locked in at the plate all season. Burleson has been one of the more underrated power bats in baseball, and Feltner’s fly-ball and barrel issues are exactly what we want to attack.
Good luck Friday!
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