What’s going on everybody? John Middlekauff here with the GoLow Podcast. Beautiful day, beautiful week.
We’ve got the Texas Children’s Houston Open this week, and the No. 1 player in the world backs out – withdraws before it even starts because he’s got baby number two on the way.
So we’ll get into some picks for this week. I took last week off after THE PLAYERS – big win for Cam Young. I just needed a reset, and honestly, I didn’t even know who to take.
But I’ve got action this week. Let’s get into it.
Texas Children’s Houston Open Preview
Min Woo Lee is the betting favorite this weekend. He’s the defending champ. He’s currently sitting around +1400, which is pretty insane. He hits it a long way, and he’s a really talented player. But when Min Woo Lee is the betting favorite in a golf tournament, it speaks volumes about the field.
Last year he won. Gary Woodland Scottie finished second. Wyndham Clark finished fifth. This is a tournament. This isn’t THE PLAYERS. It’s a tournament where you can just let it rip. You’re going to need to make a lot of birdies. You’ve got to shoot low.
These are the types of tournaments on the PGA Tour that parallel the Korn Ferry Tour more than they do the majors, THE PLAYERS, and some of the more difficult tournaments on tour. So for this week, I like guys that can bomb it.
Middlekauff’s Best Bets for the Houston Open
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000)
- Wyndham Clark (+5000, Top 10)
- Sahith Theegala (+5000, Top 10)
Michael Thorbjornsen, the kid from Stanford who has been in the mix twice this year at the Waste Management and THE PLAYERS, has played very well. He’s a guy who has momentum and has been in the mix in the two biggest tournaments so far this year.
He could have won the WMPO if he doesn’t hit in the water on 17, which is a very tough shot for long hitters. Yanked it a little left. But this is a guy who’s got a little scar tissue, who’s got some reps.
He’s +3000 to win this weekend in Houston. Those are great odds for a guy who’s one of the better players in the field. This is an auto hammer for me. And if you don’t want to get super aggressive, a Top 10 finish feels automatic.
Two other guys I like this week: Wyndham Clark, who just fired his caddy but had success here last year and hits it a mile, and Sahith Theegala, who sprays it a little off the tee but can really fill it up with birdies. Both are available at +5000, and you can get them Top 10 at around +450.
Both feel like auto Top 10s, and I’m sprinkling each outright at +5000. Pretty good odds for two guys that are going to win again on the PGA Tour at some point. And in a field like this, which is not deep – Matt Fitzpatrick isn’t there, Xander Schauffele isn’t there, Rory, Scottie long gone, Bryson, Rahm can’t play in this tournament, no Tommy Fleetwood – this is when you’ve got to eat if you’re that second-tier guy.
It’s kind of my theory behind Michael Thorbjornsen – this is the type of tournament, the type of field, where you can get over the hump. Then all of a sudden, as the year goes on, maybe he’s got some more buzz going into the majors, starts being a guy like, “Hey, could this guy sneak onto the Presidents Cup?” I could see this guy gaining a lot of momentum as the summer goes on.
All of that being said, he’s my main pick to win it.
Early Leans for The Masters
I already have a couple futures in, so let’s just start there.
I can’t take Scottie Scheffler right now. Not coming off a newborn baby. I just think there’s too much going on. Even if he plays, I don’t think his prep is the same, I don’t think the focus is the same, and I just can’t wager on him to win the Masters. Big picture, I’ll probably be back in on him later in the year, but right now I’m out.
Same thing with Rory McIlroy. It’s different, obviously, with the back injury, but the hype, the media, the Champions Dinner, everything that comes with being the defending champion – it’s just a lot. I do think he’s going to win more majors over the next couple years, but this specific Masters, I’m not on him.
The guys I like more are the LIV guys: Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau. I don’t know exactly how to judge the courses they’re playing, but I do know they’re dominating those events. Bryson looks like he’s figured something out again, and Rahm has obviously won here before. Those two feel like they jump right up near the top of the list for me.
I’d also throw Xander Schauffele in there if he keeps playing the way he has been. He’s looked excellent the last couple weeks.
And then Brooks Koepka – he’s interesting. His iron play looks really good right now, he’s hitting it well off the tee, and you can get him around 30-1. For a guy who’s won multiple majors and shows up in these big events, that’s pretty good value. I think he’s an auto Top 10 bet, and at that number, definitely worth a sprinkle outright.
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