3 & Out: John Middlekauff’s Favorite NCAA Tournament Futures

I’m gambling on the NCAA Tournament.

And listen, I know what happened last season—four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Clean, predictable, chalk all the way through. But I don’t think that’s the new normal. Not even close.

If anything, NIL has changed the sport in a different way. The top 15–20 teams are absolutely loaded now. You’ve got a team like Kansas sitting as a four seed with a guy who, two months ago, people thought was a lock to go No. 1 overall. BYU’s a six seed with top-end NBA talent. Duke, obviously, is stacked.

So yeah, the top is stronger—but March is still March. Weird stuff happens.

Don’t Overreact to the Early Rounds

I saw a stat floating around: all the top four seeds are double-digit favorites in the opening round. That’s not always the case. Usually, you get a few tighter spreads, especially in those 4–13 matchups.

This year? Not really.

Which tells me Thursday and Friday might be a little chalky. And honestly, that’s fine. The tournament doesn’t really start cooking until the weekend anyway. Once we get to the Sweet 16, that’s when things tend to go completely off the rails.

The Game That Could Define the Region

One matchup I keep coming back to is Kansas vs. St. John’s.

You’ve got Bill Self on one side, Rick Pitino on the other—two guys who have won national titles, two guys who know exactly what this tournament demands. And St. John’s is no joke. They just handled UConn in a big way.

Whoever wins that game is walking into the next round—likely against Duke—with real momentum and real confidence.

And in this tournament, that matters.

You can get Kansas around 10-to-1 odds to win the region. St. John’s is in that same ballpark. I like both. I actually threw some money on National Title futures for both—I want exposure to whoever survives that game.

The Sleeper I Can’t Ignore: Arkansas

If you’re looking for a team that could blow up the bracket, it’s Arkansas.

You can get them around 50-to-1 to win it all and roughly 10-to-1 to win their region. That’s real value.

Now, the path isn’t easy. They could run into Wisconsin early, then potentially Arizona—a team that, talent-wise, is as good as anyone in the country.

But here’s my issue with Arizona: we’ve seen this movie before.

They’ve had great teams for years—decades, really—and they just don’t get it done in March. At some point, that becomes more than coincidence. There’s pressure there. Expectations. And they haven’t broken through.

Arkansas, on the other hand, is coming in hot. They just won the SEC Tournament, they’ve got a star who can take over games, and sometimes in March, that’s all it takes.

Every few years, you get a Steph Curry-type run—one guy who just catches fire and carries a team.

Arkansas has that kind of potential.

The Coach Cal Factor

Now, I get it—John Calipari hasn’t exactly crushed it in the tournament relative to expectations. He’s lost games he probably shouldn’t have.

But this year is different.

He’s not the favorite. He’s not the one carrying all the pressure. He gets to play the underdog—and that’s a dangerous spot for everyone else.

Because most people aren’t picking Arkansas to beat Arizona. That’s exactly why I like them.

How I’m Betting the Tourney

I’m not overcomplicating this. I’ve got money on:

• Kansas and St. John’s – playing the winner of that matchup for both region and championship futures
• Arkansas to win it all – an underdog with real upside

That’s the beauty of this tournament. It’s not about being perfect—it’s about finding leverage, identifying spots, and trusting the chaos. Because it’s coming. And when it does, I want to be on the right side of it.