What’s Wright? Nick’s Five Favorite Picks for NFL Week 11

Every week, the NFL reminds us why betting lines exist — to humble even the most confident of us. But I like where I’m sitting heading into Week 11. After crunching injuries, vibes, and some truly bizarre trends, I’ve got five plays I feel great about — plus Damonza’s teaser (which, spoiler, earns him a report card he won’t frame).

Miami (-2.5) vs. Washington — from Madrid

I initially liked Miami minus two and a half thinking the game was in Washington. When I found out it’s on a neutral field in Madrid, I loved it even more.

Washington is simply too banged up — their quarterback is out, half a dozen defensive starters are missing, and they look like one of the softest spots in football right now. Meanwhile, Miami suddenly has sneaky good vibes again.

Yes, Tua’s struggled overseas, but one of those games was against the Chiefs — I’m throwing that one out. If you’re giving me Miami under a field goal against a depleted Commanders team, I’m all in.

• The pick: Miami -2.5 (Madrid)

Chicago (+3) at Minnesota

I thought Minnesota had chances against the Ravens but didn’t capitalize. Chicago, on the other hand, looks like it can score on anyone. I like this Bears offense in a dome and think they can win outright on the moneyline.

• The pick: Chicago +3 at Minnesota

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Buffalo

I’m sorry, but Buffalo shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal against any team that has its act together — and Tampa does.

This might be the first week all season Tampa’s actually healthier than its opponent. They could get Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back, while Buffalo’s injury list reads like a CVS receipt.

I don’t need the Bucs to win outright — though they could — just to hang around and cover the spread. They’re the healthier team, and Buffalo still looks like it’s doing some soul-searching.

• The pick: Tampa Bay +5.5 at Buffalo

San Francisco (-2.5) at Arizona

This one makes me a little nervous, because Kyle Shanahan has historically struggled covering against Arizona. But this is about timing.

Arizona is a mess — fresh off getting demolished — and San Francisco knows these are the games you can’t let slip if you’re chasing a playoff spot. They should have Brock Purdy back, and while I don’t think the gap between Purdy and Mac Jones is massive, it’s enough to steady things.

I love that I’m not laying the hook at three. Give me the Niners to control this one and win by a field goal.

• The pick: San Francisco -2.5 at Arizona

Kansas City (-3.5) at Denver

If you got this line when it opened at -3, congratulations — but even at -3.5, I’ll take the Chiefs.

I just don’t think Bo Nix can get this Denver offense past 17 points. The only question: can Kansas City score 21? Against this Broncos defense, yes — they can.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and Denver still isn’t.

• The pick: Kansas City -3.5 at Denver

Nick’s Week 11 Card

• 🏈 Miami -2.5 (vs. Washington, in Madrid)
• 🐻 Chicago +3 (at Minnesota)
• 🏴‍☠️ Tampa Bay +5.5 (at Buffalo)
• 🟥 San Francisco -2.5 (at Arizona)
• 👑 Kansas City -3.5 (at Denver)

Damonza’s Week 11 Teaser: The Fatherhood Fumble

Damonza’s first teaser as a new dad comes with all the love in the world… and an F grade from me.

He’s teasing through zero, ignoring key numbers — classic “baby brain” mistakes. Here’s what he’s rolling with:

• Texans +1.5
• Dolphins +5.5
• Buccaneers +13.5

I’m rooting for you, my friend, but as a betting analyst — fair’s fair. That’s an F. We’ll call it fatherhood rust.

Touchdown Genie Parlay

Last week, I told you Kyle Monangai would score. He did. We’re still undefeated lifetime on Touchdown Genie picks.

This week, I’m going big with a Touchdown Genie Parlay — Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey both to score, -122. Simple, powerful, cash it in.

Bonus Pick: Quarterback Chaos

The “group” offered me one more: Trevor Lawrence and Jameis Winston both to throw a pick, around +140. Two former No. 1 overall picks, two interceptions. Sadly, I’ll take it.