We’re officially into that weird stretch of the season when the injuries pile up, contenders start separating, and half the league’s fanbases are already firing up mock drafts. This is the time of year when you’ve got to find value in the wreckage – spots where perception has swung too far and the public’s lost its mind.
Stuckey and I went deep on the pod this week, and after sifting through the tape, the injuries, and a few too many ugly offensive lines, three games jumped off the board. Let’s get into my HAMMERS for NFL Week 8.
1. Browns (+7) at Patriots
I can already hear it: “Why would anyone take Cleveland on the road?” Simply put: because seven points in this spot is too many. Drake Maye has been fun, no doubt. But he hasn’t seen a defense like this yet. The Browns’ defensive line can wreck games, and they’ve been nails at home; if they can carry even half of that juice into Foxborough, this thing stays close.
The question is whether Dillon Gabriel can hit a few chunk throws against a vulnerable Patriots secondary. Stuckey pointed out that New England is prone to giving up explosive passes and can be had over the top if you protect the pass. Cleveland’s offensive line isn’t perfect, but they can scheme it up.
Bottom line: it’s an ugly game, but ugly covers pay the same. When everyone’s jumping back on the New England bandwagon, that’s when you fade it.
2. Steelers (+3.5) vs Packers
If you’ve bet the NFL long enough, you know the Mike Tomlin spot when you see it. Underdog, at home, coming off a loss, national audience doubting them. It’s practically muscle memory for Pittsburgh to rise in these games.
Green Bay’s offense still hasn’t found its rhythm – too many moving parts, too many wideouts in and out of the lineup, and a line that’s never quite healthy. They’ll eventually figure it out, but not this week, not against T.J. Watt and a rested defense.
Add in Tomlin’s voodoo – blocked punts, tipped picks, whatever magic he conjures at home – and it’s a recipe for another ugly grinder that somehow ends 20-17 Steelers.
The numbers don’t lie: Tomlin is the most profitable coach in NFL history as a home underdog of three points or more.
3. Commanders (+12.5) vs Chiefs
Yeah, I know – it’s terrifying to step in front of Patrick Mahomes when he looks like he’s back in MVP form. But 12.5 points? That’s too rich. The Commanders aren’t a great football team, but they’re not the Raiders either.
Kansas City’s offensive line is limping – potentially down three starters, including Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. When that happens, you can’t just assume Mahomes will cover double digits against a competent front. Washington can run the ball, chew the clock, and keep the Chiefs off the field. Marcus Mariota isn’t a star, but he’s a serviceable backup who’s run this system before.
Stuckey and I both see this as a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
The Hammers for NFL Week 8:
- Browns +7
- Steelers +3.5
- Commanders +12.5
All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.
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