Sharp or Square: Week 6 Recap, Early Week 7 Leans

We’re feeling good, not great, because that’s the life of a bettor. Week 6 delivered a 3-1 Sunday with the Chiefs still pending on Sunday night. The numbers were tight, the sweats were real, and the chaos of the NFL made sure nobody got too comfortable. But that’s what we live for. As we like to say, Sharp or Square is about making the squares sharper and the wise guys pay attention.

Let’s dive into what we saw, what we learned, and where we’re headed next.

Jets and the Art of Losing Ugly

The Jets may have hit a new low again: -10 total passing yards, the lowest figure in nearly three decades. Justin Fields was sacked nine times and still somehow had more completions than the Jets had passing yards. We talked all week about maybe taking the Jets +7.5, but couldn’t pull the trigger.

Simon had Denver moneyline in a round robin and, by his own admission, got lucky. The Broncos did everything they could to lose. But when a team invents new ways to look incompetent every week, you can’t handicap that. You just shake your head and laugh. Or cry, if you’re a Jets fan.

Carolina Keeps Paying the Bills

Give credit where it’s due: Simon nailed the Panthers +3.5 early. Chad was hesitant on Tuesday but eventually saw the light. Two straight winning weeks for Carolina backers prove that ugly teams can make beautiful tickets.

Bryce Young continues to look more comfortable at home, and Rico Dowdle’s back-to-back 200-yard performances from scrimmage are no fluke. One week he runs right on every play, the next he attacks up the middle. That’s not randomness, that’s coaching. Dave Canales is scheming opponents into submission, tailoring his run designs week to week.

Eight straight drives without a punt, 12 more first downs than Dallas, and a defense that’s quietly improving? We’ll take it. But will we ride Carolina again next week on the road against the Jets? No chance. We’re sharp, not insane.

Steelers Defense and the Mike Tomlin Way

Pittsburgh did exactly what we expected: controlled the game, stayed conservative, and waited for the rookie quarterback to implode. Aaron Rodgers, yes, that Aaron Rodgers, was efficient and boring in the best way possible. The Steelers won because they didn’t screw up.

Tomlin football is defense, patience, and timely offense. You might not love watching it, but you love cashing it. They’re not going to run away with the division, but they’re the most trustworthy team in it. That’s worth something.

Colts Collapse and the Limits of Chalk

Colts -6.5 was our lone loser, and it never felt right. When third-and-18 conversions start piling up, you know you’re cooked.

Jonathan Taylor continues to be elite – one of only five players to average over 90 rushing yards per game through five seasons – but the defense was nonexistent. Betting big favorites means you need perfection. We didn’t get it.

The Raiders Escape, But We’re Out

We rode the Raiders -4.5, and while they cashed, we’re done with them. When your quarterback slides wrong, injures himself, and then throws directly to a linebacker on the next drive, you’re not handicapping football anymore, you’re handicapping chaos.

We got paid, but it felt like stealing. Some wins teach you lessons. This one taught us never to trust the Raiders again.

Saints, Patriots, and the Drake Maye Show

The Saints felt like the right side, and they probably were, until Drake Maye decided to have the best half of his professional career. Moving in the pocket, firing strikes, and playing with poise that defied his age, he made plays that even the Saints couldn’t scheme against.

Mike Vrabel deserves credit too. He’s coaching up a young quarterback and finding wins where none should exist. We set his over-under for “coach-won” games at 2.5 this year, and he might hit four.

Chargers: Shame, Shame, Shame

Up 26-13 in the fourth quarter, the Chargers defense allowed back-to-back touchdown drives covering 150 yards in 22 plays with only three third downs total. That’s how you turn a cover into a near collapse. Yes, they pulled it out in the end, but Harbaugh’s defense can’t stop folding when it matters most.

We’ve reached the point where betting the Chargers feels like dating your ex because you still see the potential. Don’t do it. We’ve all been there.

Heroes of the Week

Chad’s Hero: Rico Dowdle. Thirty carries, 183 yards, four receptions for 56 more, and a rushing chart that looked like a surgeon’s game plan, every carry right where Dallas was weakest. That’s football IQ and coaching brilliance.

Simon’s Hero: Baker Mayfield. Down offensive linemen, battered receivers, and still out-dueling San Francisco. His improvisation, his toughness, and that third-and-15 conversion were pure magic. Baker’s playing like a guy who doesn’t just want a job, he wants revenge on everyone who doubted him. And we love that energy.

Week 7 Leans

We’ve got some early thoughts as the lines open for Week 7. Nothing locked yet, but a few stand out.

• Tennessee Titans (+6.5) vs. New England: This feels inflated. The Titans have looked lifeless, and Vrabel’s teams rarely win when they’re expected to. Ugly home dogs are where value lives.
• Detroit Lions (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay: We love Baker, but this might be the week to fade him. The Lions are primed for a rebound spot.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (in London): The Jaguars own London. Every year they look more like the home team there. If this drifts to +3.5, we’ll take it.
• Los Angeles Chargers (-1) vs. Indianapolis: It’s gross, but it’s the pro side. If the public piles on Indy, we’ll wait for the better number and hold our noses.
• New York Giants (+7.5) at Denver: Classic overreaction. Denver returns from overseas, and the Giants come in rested. Take the hook and the pain.

Those are our first looks, not our final calls. As always, patience pays early in the week.