Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 17 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s kick off the new week with three power bats in some very appealing matchups.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, August 17
- Max Muncy +240 (Dodgers at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
- Matt Olson +240 (Twins at Braves – Truist Park – 7:40 p.m. ET)
- Jac Caglianone +400(Athletics at Royals – Kauffman Stadium – 7:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Max Muncy
We’ll start in Denver as the Rockies host the Dodgers at Coors Field for an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Tomoyuki Sugano is set to take the mound, and this is a matchup that screams Max Muncy.
Sugano came into the league as a ground-ball pitcher with Baltimore, but he just cannot keep the ball on the ground anymore. That is a huge issue anywhere, but it becomes an even bigger problem when you have to pitch at altitude.
According to Baseball Savant, Sugano has been one of the bottom-feeding arms in baseball this season. He ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average, just the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and the first percentile in barrel rate allowed. Yikes.
Suagno has surrendered 24 home runs this year, including 17 to left-handed hitters. That is big-time trouble against this Dodgers lineup, and Muncy is exactly the kind of hitter who can take advantage.
Muncy has 25 home runs on the year and is in great form, launching two bombs over his last four appearances. The underlying metrics are there, too. He ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate and the 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentage.
At Coors Field against a righty who is getting crushed by lefties, sign me up.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Matt Olson
Next, we’ll head to Truist Park as the Braves host the Twins at 7:40 p.m. ET. Bailey Ober gets the ball for Minnesota, and Matt Olson is a great target in a scorching Atlanta hitting environment.
Ober entered the league with fairly high expectations, but he has been underwhelming overall. He owns a 4.64 ERA this season and ranks no better than the 10th percentile in either barrel rate allowed or hard-hit rate allowed.
The guy throws ducks, too. Ober ranks in the first percentile in fastball velocity, and left-handed hitters own a .475 slugging percentage against him this season.
Olson is probably one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball. As much as losing Freddie Freeman hurt years ago, Olson helped Braves fans get over it pretty quickly. He is having another elite year, ranking in the 91st percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage. You can’t ask for much more than that.
Olson also crushed a three-run homer Sunday, so the form is there. Temperatures should still be in the low 90s at first pitch Monday, which means the baseball should be flying at Truist Park. Olson is set up beautifully here.
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Jac Caglianone
Finally, we’ll head to Kansas City as the Royals host the Athletics at Kauffman Stadium at 7:40 p.m. ET. Jac Caglianone gets a matchup with Mason Barnett, and the biggest angle here is the unreal second half Cags has put together.
Caglianone has five home runs in August and a slugging percentage hovering right around .800 this month, which is crazy. He is finally having his breakout and turning into a true star for the Royals.
His advanced metrics might honestly be even better than Olson’s, which is pretty absurd. According to Baseball Savant, Caglianone ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage. Those are true game-changing numbers. That is a superstar profile if I’ve ever seen one.
Barnett has allowed a .541 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters across 74 at-bats this season, along with a 6.16 ERA. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground and has allowed a double-digit barrel rate. This is a great matchup for one of baseball’s hottest young hitters.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, August 17
A’s bullpen problems: The A’s bullpen has been a train wreck in 2026. The Athletics relievers have allowed 78 home runs this season while sporting the worst ERA in baseball.
- Welcome to the bigs: Highly touted Athletics prospect Tommy White hit his first career MLB home run Sunday, and the ball came off his bat at 106 mph.
- Witt breaks through: Caglianone’s teammate Bobby Witt Jr. snapped his August homer drought with his first dinger of the month Sunday.
- Hard blasts: According to OnlyHomers, Olson’s Sunday homer left the bat at 109.5 mph — the second-hardest-hit home run of the day, behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s blast off Hunter Dobbins at Wrigley Field.
Good luck Monday!
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