3 For The Money: John Middlekauff’s Best Bets for NFL Week 6

If you’ve been watching the NFL this season, one thing should be obvious: it’s wide freaking open. I’m not sure I can remember a year where the difference between a top team and a mid-tier one has been smaller. Between injuries, coaching changes, and quarterback volatility, the gap between a team like Buffalo and Indianapolis isn’t that big right now. Same goes for San Francisco and Tampa, or Philly and Seattle.

It’s chaos and I love it. Chaos creates value.

That’s why this week, I rolled out a new little segment I’m calling HAMMERS. These are the games I feel strongest about – spots where the public narrative doesn’t match the actual football being played. And I’ve got three of them.

1. New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots

Everyone’s written off the Saints like they’re competing for the No. 1 overall pick. The consensus take seems to be: “They’re terrible, they’ll draft a quarterback, move on.”

Pump the brakes.

This isn’t some unwatchable, bottom-feeding team. Offensively, they’ve got real pieces, and Spencer Rattler – who was unplayable last year – has quietly been average. And in today’s NFL, “average” quarterback play can keep you competitive every week. Stuckey and I both like them here.

The Patriots are coming off an emotional win over Buffalo, the kind of game that can lead to a letdown. New Orleans, meanwhile, is quietly confident, and playing at home helps. I’ll take the points.

2. Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you’re looking for a spot that screams “hammer,” it’s Seattle on the road as an underdog.

Here’s the kicker: Sam Darnold has been the best quarterback in football by basically every metric so far this year. EPA per play, success rate, completion percentage over expectation – you name it. He’s No. 1 across the board.

Trevor Lawrence? Middle of the pack. And if you forced every GM in the league to pick between them right now, I think most would take Darnold.

Seattle’s banged up defensively, and that’s worth noting, but this is a veteran team that knows how to respond. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is due for some turnover regression – 14 takeaways already this year after only nine all of last season. That’s not sustainable.

3. San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are certain games where you just ride the wave, and for me, that’s San Francisco right now.

Mac Jones (yes, I’m calling him Michael McCorkle Jones because it’s funnier that way) has been a warrior. He’s playing through injuries, dry-heaving on the sidelines, and still slinging the ball with a bunch of practice-squad receivers. That Rams game was one of the gutsiest performances I’ve seen this season.

And while the Niners are dealing with their own injuries – Purdy’s status, some receivers banged up – this is still a Shanahan team with extra rest and extra prep. Tampa’s been fun, and Baker Mayfield deserves credit for his resurgence, but let’s not pretend they’re blowing teams out. All four of their wins have come down to the final minute.

You give me three points with Shanahan and a tough-as-nails quarterback like Mac, I’m taking it. Every time.

Parity is the Story of the Season

If you lined up the NFL right now and ranked teams by market power ratings, you’d see something wild: the top six teams – Packers, Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Lions, and Rams – are all within a single point of each other. Then there’s a pack of a dozen teams right behind them within another two points.

That’s never happened before. The parity is unprecedented. You could make a legitimate case for seven or eight teams to win the Super Bowl today and none of them would sound crazy.

So yeah, it’s messy, unpredictable, and the lines are razor thin every Sunday. But that’s where the value lives. And that’s what makes weeks like this so damn fun.

The Hammers:

• Saints +3.5
• Seahawks +1
• 49ers +3

Let’s rock that.

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.