Heatmap: Florida Picks Sides as #3 Miami Visits #18 Florida State

One of the biggest games of the college football season to date, at least as far as bettors in Florida are concerned, is fast approaching with #3 ranked Miami (4-0) traveling north to Tallahassee to take on #18 ranked Florida State (3-1) on Saturday night. In advance of this proverbial “Clash of the Titans” we thought it might be interesting to take the temperature of the betting public throughout the state.

Here are the current betting trends as we’re seeing them now on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook in advance of Miami vs FSU:

The Panhandle believes in an upset

The county-by-county betting map of Florida shows clear and widespread support for undefeated Miami… except, perhaps predictably, when you get into the panhandle. Tallahassee and the surrounding areas are still showing love for Florida State’s upset chances.

Leon County, where the Florida State University campus is located, has seen an impressive 63% of wagers flow in on FSU to win outright, despite being a 4.5 point underdog. Contrast that with the Miami-centric counties and the degree of support for the home team in the panhandle begins to really register. 83% of moneyline wagers placed from Miami-Dade County have backed Miami, with 78% of bets from Broward following suit.

Jumping to Alachua County, home of the University of Florida, just 61% of the moneyline wagers so far are supporting Miami, an amount noticeably lower than the current 69% split that takes into account all betting data. Do UF fans want to see Miami humbled after losing 26-7 two weeks ago? Whose to say…

Miami vs FSU betting splits

• 69% of the total moneyline bets taken on Miami/FSU are on Miami to win outright
• 68% of the spread bets taken on Miami/FSU are on Miami to cover the -4.5 point spread
• 81% of the bets on the games point total are on the over (currently 54.5)

Splits pulled on Thursday, October 2, from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Movement and current prices

• Spread: Miami opened and has held as a -4.5 point road favorite following Florida State’s overtime loss last weekend to the now-ranked Virginia.
• Total: The game opened with a 55.5 point total but dropped to 53.5, before pumping back to 54.5 where it currently sits.
• Moneyline: Miami is currently -190 on the moneyline (opened at -180), with Florida State available at +155 (opened at +150).
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Recent trends

• The home team has won four of the last five meetings between Miami and Florida State.
• The under has hit in four consecutive matchups between Miami and FSU.
• The favorite has failed to cover in four of the last five meetings between these two teams at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

All referenced odds are subject to change.