The Daily Juice: Best Bets for Wednesday MLB & NBA Play-In Tournament

What’s up, guys? Welcome in to a Wednesday morning edition of The Daily Juice.

Last night was not a good night for me. Basketball-wise, I went 0-4. Now, I did get a hockey play right with the Bruins, I got a prop bet right, and I got a baseball play right, so it wasn’t a total disaster – but basketball was rough.

I had both home teams to win and cover the spread. Charlotte won in overtime but did not cover, and I took the under in both games. Both went over. Not great.

But it’s Wednesday now, which means I’ve got three more bets plus my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

Four plays in total: two NBA Play-In Tournament games, an MLB play, and an NBA player prop.

NBA Play-In Tournament: 76ers -1.5 vs. Magic

Let’s talk basketball.

The winner of this game moves on to play the Boston Celtics. Philadelphia is at home, laying 1.5 points. There’s money coming in on Philadelphia, so this number could climb – but keep in mind Joel Embiid is out.

The Orlando Magic have been a disaster down the stretch. I thought Paolo Banchero was going to have a much better year than he’s had.

There is no Embiid in the middle to protect the rim, so yes – this could be a big spot for Orlando. But I’ve talked to people I trust in the betting space, and most are on Philadelphia.

That doesn’t mean the Magic can’t win – it’s essentially a coin flip – but I think this is a good opportunity for the Sixers to step up at home.

Tyrese Maxey has to be big. Paul George has to be big. This is a chance for Philly to set up a matchup with Boston and maybe get Embiid back down the road.

I definitely don’t like Orlando here.

The Play: 76ers -1.5 (1.1 units)

NBA Play-In Tournament: Warriors +5.5 vs. Clippers

Now let’s talk about the Golden State Warriors. They’re catching 5.5 points on the road against the Clippers. This line opened at 3.5 and has been bet up to 5.5.

Head-to-head, it’s been all Clippers: they’ve won and covered in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Golden State is 3-7 ATS recently, including a loss to these Clippers on the final day of the regular season.

But here’s the thing – this is Steph Curry. This is Steve Kerr in the postseason.

I said yesterday I should trust coaching, and I didn’t. I’m not making that mistake again.

Yes, Curry has been dealing with injuries. Yes, it’s been a tough year. But 5.5 feels like too many points in a must-win game.

I think the Clippers win – but I think it’s tight. One possession game.

The Play: Warriors +5.5 (1.1 units)

Marlins vs. Braves Under 9 (-120)

Let’s move to baseball.

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves have both been over machines. Atlanta is 8-2 to the over, while Miami is 7-2-1 to the over.

This total is set at 9. At some point, there needs to be a lower-scoring game. That’s just how this works.

Bryce Elder has actually been solid this season – he’s allowed 2 earned runs combined across his three starts. Chris Paddack had a bad opener, but has pitched well in his last two.

With how consistently these teams have gone over, I think this number has gotten too high.

Once it hit 9, I’m going the other way.

The Play: Marlins/Braves Under 9 (-120) (1.2 units)

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Steph Curry Over 3.5 Made Threes (-162)

Let’s go back to Warriors vs. Clippers.

If I’m backing Steph Curry and Steve Kerr, then I’m backing Curry to shoot.

You can grab over 3.5 or over 4.5 threes. I think Curry could go nuclear.

Again, this is a must-win game. He’s going to have the ball in his hands and he’s going to be firing from deep all night.

Whether it’s close or a blowout, Curry is going to be jacking threes.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Steph Curry Over 3.5 Made Threes (-162) (1.62 units)

Final Card

My plays for today:

• 76ers -1.5 (1.1u)
• Warriors +5.5 (1.1u)
• Marlins/Braves Under 9 (-120) (1.2u)
• Steph Curry Over 3.5 Threes (-162) (1.62u)

Four plays for a loaded Wednesday. Let’s try to bounce back.