The Best Week 8 NFL Survivor Picks: Ownership Trends, Chalk & Contrarian Options

The field keeps shrinking, and the stakes keep rising in Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor contest. Week 8 is here, with 13,718 players still alive and each remaining entry now worth $145.79 as an equal share of the $2 million prize pool.

For the 482 players who jumped on the Packers on Thursday night, the hard part is already over. They’ve punched their tickets to Week 9, but the rest of the field has another decision to sweat.

Below, I’ll break down this week’s schedule, analyze current ownership trends in Hard Rock Bet’s $2 million contest, and share my top NFL Survivor picks for Week 8.

NFL Week 8 Survivor Trends

As always let’s get to the popular plays first and then try to figure out where, or even if we need to try and get different this week. These are all of the team’s currently catching more than 10% ownership in the Hard Rock Bet contest as of Saturday morning:

Cincinnati Bengals – 27.4% of Week 8 Survivor Picks

The Bengals (4-2) are currently pulling in a whopping 27.4% of the picks so far this week, which would make it the most-popular selection so far during any week of the contest (remember the Hard Rock Bet contest started in Week 4)… and I’ve got no issue with it. They line up against the Tennessee Titans this week and are the biggest betting favorite with the point spread sitting at a solid 12 points – the largest of the week by more than two points.

Joe Burrow looked on last week (292 yards, 4 TDs) while cruising to a 35-14 win in Baltimore and now they’re finally back at home against the 1-6 Titans. It’s going to be VERY popular – but I wouldn’t fault anyone for riding with Cincinnati this week. To make the selection seem even more appealing, Rookie first round pick Carnell Tate has been ruled out for Tennessee.

Are there any reasons NOT to pick Cincinnati?

Not strong ones, really. One of the more compelling reasons to look elsewhere is due to their schedule later in the season. In particular, the Bengals host the 2-5 Saints in Week 12. Remember, Week 12 is one of two weeks that players will have to submit TWO selections. Having the Bengals available for that crucial Thanksgiving slate could prove valuable, however, the Saints already beat the Ravens on the road in Baltimore (when they had Lamar Jackson, mind you) so that one is far from guaranteed.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 20.1% of Week 8 Survivor Picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2), fresh off of a Week 7 bye, host the Indianapolis Colts (2-5) on Sunday as 9 point favorites. They’re currently pulling in 19.8% of the Week 8 selections as of Saturday evening, making them the second-most popular play of the week and again, it’s hard to really poke holes in the argument here.

The Colts have spent the better part of the last week selling their best pieces for draft capital as the team commits to a full rebuild. The GM is out. All-Pro Guard Quenton Nelson has been shipped out to Seattle. All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner is on his way to San Francisco. Josh Downs has requested a trade, and rumors continue to swirl around star running back Jonathan Taylor. Simply put, it’s not pretty for Indy right now and this is a good, physical Jacksonville team.

Why not Jacksonville in Week 8?

I think the best case you could make for avoiding Jacksonville this week is that there are other quality options, and the Jaguars have a pretty cushy schedule coming up that includes not one, but two dates with the Titans. If you can keep the powder dry on Jacksonville in Week 8, they’ve got a Week 10 trip to Nashville that could be useful, and a Week 12 (the double pick Thanksgiving slate) home game against the Titans.

Further, at the end of the day this is a divisional game. Divisional games do tend to be familiar, competitive contests – regardless of how lopsided they might seem on paper. Do I personally think this one will be? Not really — but hey, just laying out the case.

New England Patriots – 13.8% of Week 8 Survivor Picks

We’ve got the New England Patriots (4-3) traveling to to Miami to take on the Dolphins as the third and final team pulling in a pick rate over 10%. I’ll be clear, of the three top plays here – I like this one the least. But first, here’s what we like:

• The Pats are a 6.5 point favorite.
• The Patriots started the season poorly but have played pretty well over the last month, going 3-1.
• Drake Maye looks to be regaining his near-MVP form. Over the last for games he’s thrown for 12 touchdowns vs only 2 picks
• The Dolphins aren’t any good. In fact they might just be bad.

Reasons you may want to avoid the Patriots in Week 8

Ok so hear me out on this – the Pats are a solid play, but keep in mind:

• The Pats are playing on the road here. If I can manage it, I’d greatly prefer to use a home team.
• Regardless of where the two teams seem to be, these Pats/Dolphins games tend to be close. Dating back to 2020, the Patriots are 1-6 in Miami against the Fins.
  • The lone win came last year, and it was pretty close at 33-27.
• We touched on it earlier with the Jags, but this IS an AFC East divisional contest.
• The Patriots play the Jets in Week 12 – the dreaded double-pick Thanksgiving week, so they might be nice to have around.

Ways to Be Different in Week 8 Survivor

Let’s say you want to avoid the highest owned plays and try to gain some leverage on the field, here are some less-popular options that I like:

• LA Rams (8.8%) against the LA Chargers
• Washington Commanders (4.6%) against the Philadelphia Eagles

Do NOT Take the Cowboys for Week 8 Survivor

I’m writing an entire section on this because I think it’s important. Right now the Dallas Cowboys have a 6.9% pick rate in Week 8 – that’s the fifth-most of any team, and I think that’s a mistake, and it’s not because I think they won’t win.

Simply put, you’re going to want the Cowboys for Week 12. Here’s why:

NFL Survivor: Week 12 – Double Picks

I’ve mentioned it several times so far in this article because it will matter quite a bit when we get to Thanksgiving week. During Week 12 of Hard Rock Bet‘s contest you’ll be required to make TWO selections. But you don’t just get to pick any two games, the week is divided into two slates. The first is the Wednesday-Friday games and the second is for the typical Sunday+Monday slate.

The early week games are:

• Packers @ Rams (Wed. – Thanksgiving Eve)
• Bears @ Lions (Thu. – Thanksgiving)
• Eagles @ Cowboys (Thu. – Thanksgiving)
• Chiefs @ Bills (Thu. – Thanksgiving)
• Broncos @ Steelers (Fri. – Black Friday)

Now, that’s a sensational lineup of games – like, astonishingly good… but not for Survivor.

However, with Jalen Hurts now out for the season I think the Cowboys easily become the most attractive selection for the Thanksgiving slate. Could they lose? Absolutely, they laid an egg against the Bucs just a few weeks ago in the same stadium – but I would guess they’ll be the biggest betting favorite of those five games by a considerable margin. I’ll be saving them if I can.

The Best NFL Survivor Picks for Week 8

So taking into account all of the information above, here are my favorite picks for Week 8. Full disclosure, my record thus far hasn’t been great – but I did avoid the Texans last week!

1. LA Rams: The Rams played great last week and the Chargers have been abysmal so far this season. The spread is a comfortable 6.5, and you’ll be getting an ownership discount on teams like Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Could the Chargers look better after the bye? Absolutely. But the Rams need this and I trust them to get it done.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: A good team, a bad opponent, and they don’t have a ton of appeal later in the contest. It’s going to be popular, but I think they’re a great play.
3. Washington Commanders: Washington is the ultimate hold-your-nose play this week. They’re not good, but the Eagles might be worse? The Commanders are at home, they’re coming off the bye, and the Eagles are depleted. They also looked OK the last time we saw them against the 49ers.

Current Week 8 NFL Survivor Ownership Stats

Here’s how things look as of Saturday morning. Keep in mind the pick percentages indicate the percentage of selections that have been made, not the overall percentage of remaining players.

• Cincinnati Bengals – 27.4%
• Jacksonville Jaguars – 20.1%
• New England Patriots – 13.8%
• LA Rams – 9%
• Dallas Cowboys – 6.9%
• Green Bay Packers – 5.5%
• Washington Commanders – 4.8%
• Las Vegas Raiders – 4.3%
• Pittsburgh Steelers – 2.4%
• Buffalo Bills – 1.8%
• Tampa Bay Bucs – 1.2%
• Detroit Lions – .9%
• Seattle Seahawks – .4%
• NY Jets – .3%
• Kansas City Chiefs – .3%
• Atlanta Falcons – .3%
• Carolina Panthers – .2%
• Chicago Bears – .1%
• Minnesota Vikings – .1%
• Arizona Cardinals – .1%
• Philadelphia Eagles – .1%
• Denver Broncos – .1%
• Baltimore Ravens – 0%
• Cleveland Browns – 0%
• LA Chargers – 0%
• Indianapolis Colts – 0%
• Tennessee Titans – 0%
• Miami Dolphins – 0%

Don’t forget to submit your pick

I’m going to include this section every week because the easiest way to lose is not to play. Anyone that doesn’t submit a pick is automatically eliminated. Log-in to the Hard Rock Bet app today and submit your Week 8 pick. Oh, and you can submit future weeks too, while you’re at it. You can always change them later.

See-ya next week – good luck!