Today we’re covering all things betting for the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There are four games tipping off tonight, another four games on Friday, the following round on Saturday and Sunday, and the semifinal next weekend.
To help break it all down, we’re joined once again by returning guest Joshua “Duck” Nunn, one of our favorite college basketball betting experts.
No More Cinderella Stories?
There’s just no upsets in college basketball, and I’m not going to lie, it’s tough. It’s tough coming here today and talking more college basketball, because NIL has killed what I loved: Cinderella stories. Back in the day, you’d always get these random teams that would make a run. Something’s missing in college basketball right now. We need those runs again.
That feeling has changed the way people are even defining underdogs. The teams we get excited about now are the Iowas of the world. Teams that used to feel good, not great – bigger schools are now filling the role that schools like VCU once did. You’d still love to see a High Point break through and make the second weekend, but it’s harder now.
The games are still top-notch. There were exciting matchups in the first two rounds. St. John’s-Kansas was great. The blue bloods still deliver, and some of the basketball is excellent. But what’s gone is that magical moment where some kid from a plucky school becomes a national hero for three weeks in March.
That’s the real difference now. These teams can keep it close, but the athletic gap shows up late. In the final five minutes, the best teams can just flip a switch. They shut teams down defensively, and then offensively they get any points they want. All five guys are long, can shoot, and can defend. Unless a smaller school has someone shooting 70% from three, it’s hard for them to compete.
It’s not like it used to be. No more Loyola Chicago and Sister Jean. No more George Mason magic. Those days might be long gone.
NCAA Tournament Recap: Chalk Everywhere
Duck’s biggest takeaway from the first weekend was simple: this tournament has been incredibly chalky.
Some of the underdogs we liked were hanging in there for 35 minutes and then fading in the last five. That lines up with the broader state of college athletics, where the rich get richer and the talent in mid-major and low-major leagues gets plucked year after year.
Duck pointed out another problem specific to this season: some leagues didn’t even send their best teams to the tournament. Upsets during conference championship week knocked out regular-season standouts in leagues like the Southern Conference, the Ivy League, and the CAA. So the field had even fewer dangerous mid-majors than usual.
That only helped the favorites. As we noted from Evan Abrams’ numbers, early-round favorites went 16-0 on Friday for the first time since 1992 and 12-4 against the spread. Through the first two rounds, favorites went 39-9 straight up and better than 60% ATS. It was one of the chalkiest tournament starts in years.
Duck said the debate on Twitter had gotten so heated that some people were calling the tournament dead. He isn’t going that far, but he did agree there was a lack of Cinderella drama. Teams put scares into big programs, but they couldn’t finish. They faded in the second half.
The Biggest Surprise So Far: Iowa
Duck’s biggest shock of the tournament was Iowa taking down Florida.
Ben McCollum’s offense is unusual. Iowa is very unselfish, plays at the slowest pace in the country, and is mostly starless outside of Bennett Stirtz. Against Florida, they built a 12-point lead on a more athletic, taller, better post team. Then they gave it back. Then they stayed alive anyway.
They were missing foul shots. Their best player was 0-for-9 from three. They were down by multiple possessions late. But they still executed in the final seconds and found a way to win with a beautiful inbounds sequence that ended in a corner three from a Robert Morris transfer.
That, more than anything, felt like the one true surprise of the tournament so far.
Duck was clear, too, on what counts as a Cinderella. Texas might technically be an 11-seed, but Texas is not a Cinderella. They have a huge athletic budget, they play in the SEC, and they spend real money. Iowa, on the other hand, qualifies.
Futures Market: Houston and Purdue
With favorites dominating and some title contenders wobbling, the natural question was whether any futures still stood out.
Duck likes Houston’s path to Indianapolis. Florida being knocked out opened things up. Houston is playing in Houston, not in its home gym but still with a major crowd edge. He thinks Houston can neutralize what Illinois likes to do, especially because that game is unlikely to have much pace. Both teams operate slowly, but Houston’s defense presents problems Illinois may not have seen.
After that, Houston would get the winner of Iowa-Nebraska in the next round, and Duck believes Houston would be a solid favorite there too.
At this stage of the tournament, that matters. Once you get to Indy, it’s really just a two-game sprint. Any of the four teams left can win it all. So if you can find a team with a clear path, that has real value.
The other team Duck highlighted was Purdue.
He thinks Purdue is starting to come on offensively. When Purdue struggled late in Big Ten play, it wasn’t because they were generating bad shots. They just weren’t making them. Trey Kaufman-Renn wasn’t as effective, other post players hadn’t clicked, and the offense stalled. But now the continuity is coming back.
He thinks Purdue has the profile of a team that can keep winning and potentially even knock off Arizona to get to the semifinal.
Coaching Carousel: Who Cashed In?
We also spoke about the coaching carousel and which tournament coaches have raised their profiles the most.
Duck’s answer was Flynn Clayman from High Point.
The minute the season ends, coaches start getting plucked. We already saw movement with Siena, Utah State, and South Florida. But Clayman is absolutely on the map now. The way High Point believed in its system, the way the team played, and how much they outperformed expectations all stood out.
Duck said he wouldn’t be surprised if within a year and a half, Clayman has a high-profile job in college basketball.
That led to a broader conversation about places like High Point, where maybe the job itself is better than people realize. Chad pointed out that High Point reportedly has a massive NIL setup, a nearly $200 million arena, and all the resources of a wealthy country-club-style campus. If you can dominate a weaker conference, keep winning, and live well, maybe you don’t rush to leave.
Duck agreed there are schools like that, just as there are coaches like Mark Few or Randy Bennett who stay put for years. But for a lot of coaches, once they feel like they’ve maxed out what a program can be, the next call is too tempting to ignore.
That’s why Randy Bennett leaving Saint Mary’s for Arizona State caught everyone’s attention. Arizona State seems to be investing hard in athletics, and the Bennett hire felt like a “go get a proven winner and give him real resources” kind of move. It might make Arizona State a team worth watching next year.
Duck’s Best Bet for Thursday: Purdue -6.5
Duck’s strongest position for Thursday night is Purdue -6.5 against Texas.
He thinks Texas is over its skis. Texas beat BYU, but BYU was really banged up. Then Texas beat Gonzaga, and Gonzaga was also dealing with injuries and ineffective guards. Now Texas has to face a healthy Purdue team that is much more efficient offensively.
Duck believes Purdue can absolutely torch Texas’s defense and neutralize what Texas wants to do offensively out of the post. His view was clear: Purdue is the better team, Purdue is executing, and Purdue should win and cover.
Simon Says: Iowa Moneyline (+110)
For this week’s Simon Says, Simon went with Iowa moneyline at +110.
Duck had him fired up about Iowa, and Simon said that Florida game was maybe the most fun he had all weekend. Iowa just could not be knocked out. They’ve already beaten Nebraska this season, so this isn’t some unfamiliar matchup, and Simon loves those little short dogs.
It worked last week with TCU. He’s running it back.
Simon Says: Iowa ML (+110)
Friday Best Bets: St. John’s-Duke Under, Tennessee +4.5
For Friday, Duck’s favorite play is St. John’s-Duke under 142.5.
He likes the matchup because Rick Pitino will have plenty of time to build a defensive gameplan. St. John’s has the type of defenders and on-ball pressure to bother Duke, especially if Caleb Foster is still limited or out. Duke has already slowed its tempo, and St. John’s can force turnovers without turning every game into a track meet.
He doesn’t see enough pace, possessions, or offensive efficiency for this one to go over. He called it a close, back-and-forth game that stays under the number.
His other bet for Friday is Tennessee +4.5 against Iowa State, but with a major caveat: Joshua Jefferson’s injury status.
Duck said if Jefferson isn’t available, that line probably drops to 3 or 2.5. Jefferson is a huge force for Iowa State on both ends, especially in the paint. Without him, Duck thinks Tennessee can control the glass and absolutely hang around, if not win outright.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Tennessee Moneyline (+155)
Similarly, our Brass Balls Bet of the Week is Tennessee ML (+155) vs. Iowa State.
Duck’s logic carries over. Jefferson’s ankle looked bad, he was seen moving around in a boot, and Tennessee has the type of rebounding and second-chance offense that can swing this kind of game if Iowa State is missing one of its most important front-court pieces.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Tennessee ML (+155)
Other Upset Teams to Watch
Even in a tournament dominated by favorites, Duck still sees some room for chaos this weekend.
For starters, Alabama can beat anybody if it gets hot from three again. Michigan State-UConn is a coin-flip kind of game, especially with Izzo versus Hurley on the sideline. He wouldn’t be stunned if Illinois beat Houston, even though he’s personally holding Houston futures. He also thinks Arkansas can make Arizona uncomfortable, especially if Arizona gets dragged into a game where it has to hit threes under pressure.
Really, the only game where Duck would be stunned by an upset is Purdue-Texas. Everywhere else, he thinks the spreads are tight enough and the matchups competitive enough that at least three higher-seeded teams could win across Thursday and Friday.
Sharp or Square NCAA Tournament Picks
Here’s a recap of our picks for the second weekend of action:
- Purdue -6.5 (Duck’s Best Bet for Thursday)
- St. John’s-Duke Under 142.5 (Duck’s Best Bet for Friday)
- Tennessee +4.5 (pending Joshua Jefferson news)
- Simon Says: Iowa ML (+110)
- Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Tennessee ML (+155)
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