Welcome to Sharp or Square. Today we’re diving into everything from Duke’s brutal loss to UConn to the two NCAA Tournament semifinal matchups on Saturday night. Joshua ‘Duck’ Nunn is back on the show to help us break down the board.
We’ve been hot. Iowa hit. Tennessee hit. We’ve been cashing tickets. And even though Simon admitted he gave it all back on the Phillies, the college basketball read has been sharp.
What makes this time of year so great is exactly what happened in that Duke-UConn game. It’s pressure, coaching, emotion, and one shot changing everything. That’s the stuff you dream about as a kid. And once that game ended, the whole conversation turned to what comes next: UConn vs. Illinois, Michigan vs. Arizona, and how to bet on both matchups.
Duke-UConn Was Everything That Makes March Great
We’ll obviously get into the Duke-UConn game a bit more, but I always talk about these games – and it didn’t work in Tennessee and Michigan – but betting the underdog down 20-ish at halftime has to be profitable over the last 10 or so years.
Tennessee obviously got rolled. But UConn came back. It was crazy. I think it was like 25-1. I put a little on it, and while it doesn’t always work out, when it does hit, it hits big time. That’s why we love college basketball.
There’s just so much to dive into from that game. Between Hurley and the referee and what’s going on now with Duke, even at the end with Coach K, they just keep having these horrible soul-crushing losses.
It’s so insane that it happened the way it did. Jon Scheyer said it after the game: that’s not the one play that lost them the game. They missed a free throw right before that. They had multiple instances where players just fell to the ground and lost the ball – handed it to UConn.
It was almost out of a movie or like in Friday Night Lights. At the end of every game there’d be these crazy impossible situations where the other team made the exact mistake that it needed to make at the right time. That’s what it looked like watching Duke. Like they were in a movie and completely forgot how to play basketball for a little.
Duck Returns
Our buddy Josh Nunn, aka Duck, co-host of the Big Bets on Campus podcast, has been with us all through the tournament. He’s been crushing. He’s given us a lot of guidance, and that’s kind of why we’re crushing.
Duck had already come through with a couple of creative winners before the semifinals even got here.
Before the tournament began, he gave us an exotic on total seeds to make it to Indy, under nine. Congratulations. It’s at seven: Michigan 1, Arizona 1, UConn 2, Illinois 3. Then he gave out three or more lower-seed upsets in the Sweet 16 at plus money. Illinois, Iowa, Tennessee. Well done, my friend.
Duck said it felt like there was some level of top-heaviness in this NCAA tournament, particularly with the four 1-seeds. As the tournament got deeper, the talent disparity condensed and the pricing in the lines got very competitive. It wasn’t some monumental upset that allowed for those exotics to cash. It was just really competitive teams beating other really competitive teams.
Illinois vs. UConn Breakdown
First game up: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. No. 3 Illinois, No. 2 UConn. Illinois opened as a two-point favorite, with the total set at 139.5.
I’m not surprised that Illinois is the favorite in this game. I think the Big 1o has had a better tournament. They’ve been playing incredibly well. I think there’s more enthusiasm and more respect for the way the Big 10 plays compared to how UConn plays coming out of its tournament. I think Illinois has been a phenomenal team and offensive team all season.
Duck thought the number was competitively priced. A point and a half is where he would have had it. He also said the question comes down to whether UConn can force turnovers against Illinois, because Illinois is excellent at protecting the basketball.
UConn is going to gamble a little bit defensively. We’ve seen those gambles pay off at times. We’ve also seen those gambles lead to easy shots for their opponent. But Duck thinks it’s critical for UConn to force some turnovers against Illinois, because Illinois is not going to force many on the other end. Their defensive makeup just doesn’t involve much on-ball pressure.
That means UConn should be able to get into its half-court sets without turnovers being a huge liability. If they can force 10 or 12 turnovers, that changes everything.
Duck also pointed out the shooting. Entering this round, UConn was 27-93 from deep, and against Duke, guys like Solo Ball, Karaban, and Mullins went a combined 2-17 from three and still found a way to win.
That’s a big reason he likes the Huskies here.
Tarris Reed Jr. Could Be the Key
Duck kept coming back to Tarris Reed Jr.
UConn wants to play some high-low and get the ball inside, and Reed is a guy who can really have an impact here as long as he stays out of foul trouble. UConn played Illinois earlier this season and dominated the matchup, but Reed was in foul trouble and only played around 14 minutes.
If he stays on the floor and impacts the game on both ends, Duck thinks UConn has a really good chance to win.
He also made one of his favorite props clear: over 15.5 points for Tarris Reed.
The logic was simple. He thinks Reed is going to get to the stripe. He thinks UConn will be able to procure some paint touches. And if the Huskies hit a few early shots and force Illinois to expand defensively, Reed is going to cook in the post.
Duck also thinks Illinois cannot start slow like it did against Iowa. UConn is too athletic and too tenacious defensively. If Illinois is playing from behind, he doesn’t see UConn as the kind of team that’s going to give a big run back.
And there’s a matchup angle here too: UConn blocks a lot of shots, while Illinois really wants to get to the rim. Duck thinks that gives UConn a real defensive advantage.
Brass Balls Bet of the Week: UConn Moneyline
We’re going to do it.
Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet: we’re going with the UConn Huskies.
Not even with the points. We’re taking them outright on the moneyline.
Michigan vs. Arizona: The Real Championship Game?
The second game tips at 8:49 p.m. Everyone’s saying this is the real championship game.
Michigan opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and that line hasn’t moved. The total sits at 157.5, which is much higher than the total in UConn-Illinois.
Duck called this one a true coin flip.
He said every time he watches Michigan and Arizona, he feels like either one can win the national championship. He never really felt that way watching Duke.
Arizona, in Duck’s eyes, has a fifth gear. He pointed to the Purdue game, where the Wildcats scored 19 points in the first six minutes of the first half, then went ice cold, then completely tore Purdue apart in the second half and outscored the Boilers 48-26.
Michigan, though, presents a very different problem. Duck said Michigan is really going to have to play well in the post or it could be trouble, but he also pointed out how dominant Michigan looked against Tennessee. Tennessee was getting the shots Michigan wanted it to take, from the outside, and couldn’t make enough of them.
Why Duck Leans Over
The core of Duck’s handicap came down to style and foul trouble.
Arizona shoots fewer threes than anybody in the country. Only 25% of its shots come from beyond the arc. The Wildcats want to get the ball into the paint. Michigan, meanwhile, has an exceptional rim-protecting defense. They block and alter more shots than anybody in the Big 10.
But what happens if Michigan’s bigs get into foul trouble?
That’s the pressure point. If Mara has to sit, Michigan slides people around, plays faster, hits outside shots, and creates more tempo. Duck could see Arizona getting shots at the rim and trips to the foul line, while Michigan counters with pace and three-point shooting.
That’s why he is leaning over 157.5.
Even with a high number, he thinks the points are coming. Both offenses are top five in efficiency. He called it strength on strength and sees a back-and-forth offensive game.
Looking Ahead to Monday Night
We asked Duck if he had anything for the championship game if he was handicapping it all the way through.
His answer: he thinks we’ll see UConn advance, and he thinks Michigan gets through the other side.
He called Michigan-Arizona splitting hairs, but ultimately thinks Michigan does a better job of forcing opponents to become something they do not want to be. In this case, he thinks Michigan will force Arizona to shoot more threes than Arizona wants to shoot.
Duck’s projected title game is Michigan vs. UConn.
Sharp or Square NCAA Tournament Semifinal Picks
Here’s the recap of where we landed:
- Brass Balls Bet of the Week: UConn moneyline
- Duck’s Prop: Terrace Reed over 15.5 points
- Duck’s Total Lean: Michigan-Arizona over 157.5
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