Sharp or Square: Early 2026 World Cup Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

This summer, the United States steps into a role it has never fully held: host of the world’s biggest international soccer tournament. Nearly 50 nations, 100 matches, and a global audience that dwarfs the Super Bowl. For a country still learning how to feel about the sport the rest of the world lives and breathes, this is the moment where everything changes.

And for bettors, it’s a rare sweet spot on the calendar. Basketball and hockey playoffs taper off, football is still months away, and suddenly an entire world tournament opens up on American soil – complete with markets, futures, and value plays already live on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The combination of expanded fields, new matchups, and an American team carrying real expectations creates a betting landscape that feels fresh and unpredictable. Yet if you listen closely, there are some early angles already shaping up as smart positions:

1. The Four Powerhouses Are Still the Safest Futures Plays

Our top contenders:

• Spain
• England
• France
• Argentina

If you want a team to ride throughout the tournament, these are the most reliable futures selections.

2. Norway is a Sneaky Longshot Despite Being in the “Group of Death”

Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Play-off Winner

• Norway to win the group: +260
• Norway to win the tournament: +2500

Even facing brutal competition, Norway is worth some consideration because of its elite striker Erling Haaland – someone who can single-handedly change matches.

3. The United States Has its Best Tournament Path in Generations

Group D outlook:

• USA to win Group D: +120
• Sharp projections say the USA should actually be around a -200 favorite
• USA to win the tournament: +6000

The USMNT was gifted an extraordinarily soft group for a host nation. They avoid many of the elite European and South American programs entirely in group play. Combine that with home soil, humidity advantages, and an expanded 48-team field, and this might be the best chance the Americans have ever had.

Why the Tournament Feels Different This Time

Hosting changes everything. The U.S. automatically qualifies, sure, but more importantly, the team lands in a situation that dramatically lowers early pressure. No heavyweights. Manageable travel. A month of matches in American summer heat – something many visiting nations won’t be prepared for.

And that matters because these tournaments tighten up. Defenses compress. Scoring becomes scarce. A single mistake or single star can dictate an entire match. Norway has that star. The U.S. has the conditioning and familiarity. Traditional powers have the pedigree and depth.

While the list of favorites remains predictable, the expanded format opens new doors. With 48 teams, chaos increases. More knockout rounds mean more opportunities for long-shots to steal matches and advance. More matches also mean more betting opportunities, more markets, and more volatility – something bettors thrive on.

Could the U.S. Actually Win the Whole Thing?

Let’s be clear: the United States is not one of the most talented teams in the 2026 World Cup field. But tournaments create strange physics. Once you get out of the group, everything becomes do-or-die. A hot keeper, a well-timed counterattack, a red card, weather, nerves – these tournaments swing on the smallest edges.

And this year, those edges favor the Americans more than usual.

Humidity. Travel. Home crowds. A bracket without early monsters. A deeper roster than past cycles. Long odds that don’t match the realistic path.

You never want to confuse possibility with probability. But if you’re searching for a long-shot with a real roadmap, the USMNT has one.

The Summer the U.S. Becomes a Soccer Country

America is about to experience soccer differently. Stadiums will throb with color. Entire days will revolve around kickoff times. Businesses, bars, and neighborhoods will adopt countries and traditions they’ve never interacted with before.

And through all of it, Hard Rock Bet will be buzzing: markets moving, futures shifting, bettors tracking every upset and survival moment.

This tournament is bigger than anything the U.S. has hosted in the sport. And with the right picks already revealing themselves, it’s shaping up to be the most exciting betting summer we’ve ever seen.