Hard Rock Bet’s $2 Million NFL Survivor Contest officially begins Thursday night, and with nearly 190,000 entries already locked in, we’re getting our first look at where players are going with their Week 4 selections.
As of Thursday afternoon, three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the field. The Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings account for 56.3% of all Week 4 selections thus far, with Baltimore leading the way at 21.5%.
There is still plenty of time for those numbers to move. Players can change their selection until the scheduled kickoff of the game they choose, but with Steelers-Browns opening the NFL Week 4 slate Thursday night, the first Survivor selections of the contest are about to be locked in.
That being said, you still have until Sunday to make your first pick as long as you aren’t on Pittsburgh or Cleveland. Additionally, the number of total entries is expected to continue to grow by Sunday.
Here’s where the action is going so far, along with a few other teams worth considering before making your first pick.
Most Popular NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks at Hard Rock Bet
The Ravens are currently the most popular selection in the entire pool at 21.5%, followed closely by the Steelers at 19.4%. Minnesota is the only other team above 10%, with 15.4% of entries taking the Vikings over the hometown Dolphins.
That means more than half of the field is relying on one of just three teams to get through the opening week.
Team | % Selected |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 21.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.4% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 15.4% |
| Chicago Bears | 7.4% |
| Buffalo Bills | 5.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.3% |
| Cleveland Browns | 2.2% |
| New York Giants | 2.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1.5% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.4% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.1% |
| Washington Commanders | 1.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.9% |
| New York Jets | 0.6% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.6% |
| Houston Texans | 0.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.5% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.5% |
| New England Patriots | 0.4% |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.2% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.2% |
| Denver Broncos | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.0% |
Baltimore Ravens (21.5%) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Ravens are the clear consensus choice heading into the opening weekend of Survivor.
Baltimore gets Tennessee at home after improving to 2-1 with a 34-31 win over Dallas last week in Brazil. The Ravens have already proven they can put points on the board under new OC Declan Doyle, scoring 41 in their opener against Indianapolis and another 34 against the Cowboys.
More than one out of every five Survivor entries is currently riding with Baltimore, making the Ravens the most popular path to Week 5 by a comfortable margin.
And while there is nothing wrong with taking one of the week’s heaviest favorites in Survivor, especially this early in the contest, a Baltimore loss would immediately take a significant portion of the field with it.
Pittsburgh Steelers (19.4%) at Cleveland Browns
The first major sweat of the entire contest comes Thursday night.
Pittsburgh has drawn 19.4% of all Survivor selections for its road trip to Cleveland on TNF, meaning nearly one-fifth of the pool could either be safely through to Week 5 or eliminated before Sunday’s games even begin.
There is a lot more risk here than there is with some of the larger home favorites on the board. The Steelers have to go on the road for a division game against the Browns, and AFC North matchups seemingly always find a way to get uncomfortable.
Still, plenty of Hard Rock Bet players aren’t buying Cleveland’s 2-1 start and trust Pittsburgh to get them through the opening week of Survivor.
Minnesota Vikings (15.4%) vs. Miami Dolphins
Minnesota rounds out the top three, with 15.4% of the pool taking the Vikings at home against Florida‘s own Miami Dolphins.
The Vikings are off to a 3-0 start, while the Dolphins enter Sunday at 0-3. Minnesota has also already won twice away from home, beating Chicago and Tampa Bay, and now return to U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time since Week 1.
Kyler Murray is back under center for the Vikings, and although Justin Jefferson‘s status remains in question heading into the weekend, Miami will be without its most explosive playmaker after losing De’Von Achane to an ACL tear in last week’s loss to Kansas City.
For players looking for one of the week’s biggest favorites without using Baltimore, Minnesota offers another appealing path through Week 4.
Other Week 4 Survivor Picks to Consider
The biggest favorite on the board isn’t automatically the right team for every Survivor entry. Since each club can only be used once during the entire contest, this is also about deciding when a team is worth using and when it might make sense to stash it for later.
Here are three less popular options that stand out heading into Sunday:
Seattle Seahawks (1.5%) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle is one of the larger favorites available this week, yet only 1.5% of Survivor entries are currently using the Seahawks.
There is reason to be cautious. Going up against an 0-3 team getting points can be tricky in the NFL, and Jim Harbaugh is certainly no stranger to taking a team into Seattle after all those years coaching San Francisco in the NFC West.
The Seahawks also have Sam Darnold back. Darnold returned from injury last week and threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in their 33-31 loss at Washington.
The bigger question may be whether this is the right time to use Seattle.
The Seahawks’ next four games come against San Francisco, Denver, Kansas City and Chicago. There are a few better spots for the Hawks later in the year, including at home against Arizona in Week 9, at Las Vegas in Week 10 and home against the Giants in Week 14.
Saving Seattle certainly has some appeal, but as one of the relatively few bigger favorites available in Week 4, the Seahawks are worth considering now too if you believe Harbaugh and co. can slip to 0-4.
Kansas City Chiefs (4.5%) at Las Vegas Raiders
Road favorites always deserve a little extra caution in Survivor, especially when they aren’t laying a huge number.
Despite this, Kansas City is still worth a look this week.
The Chiefs are 3-0 with Patrick Mahomes back leading the offense, and they head to Las Vegas to face another undefeated team. The Raiders have been one of the early surprises of the season, beating Miami at home before pulling off back-to-back road upsets over the Chargers and Saints.
Here’s the thing, though – those three opponents have combined for only one win through three weeks.
That doesn’t take anything away from a 3-0 start, but Kansas City represents a major step up in competition. The Chiefs have also controlled this rivalry for years, going 19-4 SU against the Raiders dating back to 2014.
There’s another reason to consider using Kansas City now: the Chiefs are off in Week 5, then host the Chargers before road games at Seattle and Denver. Better-looking opportunities could come at home against the Jets in Week 9 or Arizona in Week 11, but Kansas City’s schedule doesn’t provide an endless supply of obvious Survivor spots.
Only 4.5% of the field is on the Chiefs so far, making this spot worth considering if you’re looking to take the road less traveled.
San Francisco 49ers (1.1%) vs. Denver Broncos
If you’re trying to get even further away from the crowd, San Francisco is drawing just 1.1% of Survivor picks thus far.
Denver enters the matchup with plenty of steam after following an ugly Week 1 loss at Kansas City with consecutive home wins over Jacksonville and the Rams. The Broncos’ comeback against Los Angeles came in prime time last Sunday, so it was also a performance just about everyone saw.
Now Denver has to head back on the road to face a San Francisco team that has started 3-0.
The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in every game, opening the season with a 27-7 win over the Rams before beating Miami 35-13 and Arizona 36-30.
San Francisco isn’t one of the overwhelming favorites on this week’s board, so there is obviously more risk involved than simply taking Baltimore or Minnesota. But if you’re looking for a more contrarian route through Week 4, the 49ers offer an interesting opportunity at home.
There is some value in saving them as well. San Francisco hosts Washington in Week 6 and Las Vegas in Week 9, giving Survivor players a couple of potential spots to circle down the road.
Making Your Week 4 Survivor Pick
There is no correct way to approach the opening week.
The only thing that matters once the games begin is getting the win.
Players can submit or change their Week 4 selection in the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app until their chosen game kicks off. Once a team has been used, it is unavailable for the rest of the contest.
Survive Week 4, and then it’s on to the next one.
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