NFL Touchdown Predictions: The Best TD Bets for Sunday (Week 7)

It’s a great slate to make some Week 7 NFL touchdown picks!

We’ll start with a receiver in a potential indoor shootout, head to San Francisco for a familiar face with ridiculous goal-line participation, and then look at a Carolina pass catcher who fits his matchup nicely.

Finally, we’ll finish with a Titans’ long shot. Nobody said every ticket had to be pretty. Let’s get into my favorite Week 7 touchdown bets at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best Touchdown Bets for NFL Week 7

• Matthew Golden +150 Anytime TD
• George Kittle +105 Anytime TD
• Jalen Coker +170 Anytime TD
• Elic Ayomanor +650 Anytime TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

Week 7 Touchdown Pick: Matthew Golden (+150)

The Packers–Lions game has a 53.5-point total, and we get to enjoy it indoors. That’s a pretty appealing starting point when shopping for touchdowns.

I expect Green Bay to have opportunities to put points on the board, and Matthew Golden is my preferred receiving option at +150.

That is not a knock on Christian Watson, who is also in play at a lower price. There is absolutely an outcome where both receivers score. But Golden gives us the slightly better price, and his underlying involvement deserves more attention.

Golden has 501 receiving yards, just 37 fewer than Watson. He also leads the NFL with 781 air yards and owns a massive 40% air-yard share.

Those are not complementary-receiver numbers.

His target share is roughly five percentage points higher than Watson’s, and he leads Green Bay in first-read rate. The Packers are making a point of looking for him, including downfield, where he’s already collected 14 deep targets.

The work near the end zone is encouraging too.

Golden and Watson have each played 86% of Green Bay’s snaps inside the 5-yard line. Golden has played 30 of 33 inside the 10, with Watson just one snap behind.

Golden also has 11 targets inside the 20, four more than Watson. Their end-zone opportunities are similarly close, with Watson holding an eight-to-seven advantage.

So, yes, I like both players. But we’re getting a little more back on our money with Golden despite a role that compares favorably across several important categories.

In this environment, I would not have been surprised to see either receiver priced closer to +115. At +150, Golden gets the spot on my card.

Sunday TD Prediction: George Kittle (+105)

George Kittle at better than even money? I’m listening.

San Francisco is without Mike Evans, which should make an already established receiving option even more important. The 49ers don’t need to get particularly creative to find someone capable of handling meaningful opportunities.

They have Kittle.

Atlanta has made stopping the run a priority, but the secondary hasn’t provided the same resistance. That gives San Francisco a reason to lean on the passing game, and the total pushing 50 adds to the appeal.

Then we get to Kittle’s participation near the goal line, which is almost comical. He’s played all 19 of the 49ers’ offensive snaps inside the 5-yard line and 32 of 33 inside the 10.

Of course, he can be on the field and block while someone else gets the touchdown. Snap share isn’t the same thing as target share, and neither guarantees a winning ticket.

But with fewer established receiving options available, this is exactly the kind of player I want getting those high-value snaps.

At +105, I’m happy to keep this one straightforward.

Week 7 TD Prop: Jalen Coker (+170)

Todd Bowles would generally prefer you beat his defense by throwing rather than running.

For this bet, I can work with that.

Carolina has a competent passing attack with a concentrated group of receiving options, led by Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. If Tampa Bay makes it difficult to establish the ground game, those two give the Panthers somewhere to turn.

Coker is the one I’m backing at +170.

He’s played 23 of Carolina’s 29 offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line, putting him on the field for nearly 80% of those opportunities. That’s meaningful involvement.

He already has a role where we need him.

This should also be a competitive game, giving Carolina a chance to keep running its offense rather than milking the clock with a big lead.

The matchup points toward passing opportunities, the receiving work is concentrated, and Coker is staying involved close to the end zone.

Week 7 Long-Shot TD Bet: Elic Ayomanor (+650)

Alright, time for the uncomfortable click.

Tennessee’s offense can be a tough watch. I am not going to sell Elic Ayomanor at +650 against Cleveland by pretending the Titans are about to become an offensive machine.

This is a smaller bet on a very specific part of his role.

Ayomanor’s overall target share is modest compared with the ascending Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. Once Tennessee gets into scoring territory, though, he becomes much more relevant.

He leads the team with seven targets inside the 20-yard line and is tied with Tate for the team lead in end-zone targets. He also gets a meaningful share of the snaps inside the 10.

We have seen Cam Ward trust Ayomanor in important moments. We have also seen Ayomanor leave plays on the field, including an awful drop last week.

The bigger concern is how rarely Tennessee creates these opportunities in the first place. The Titans have run just 50 offensive snaps inside the 20 this season and 26 inside the 10.

Still, Ayomanor is a big, physical receiver whose blocking helps keep him involved near the goal line. His scoring-area targets give us something more substantial than simply hoping a random deep ball finds him.

At +650, I’ll keep the stake small and take a shot.

Good luck with all of your Week 7 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props — keep the speculative plays appropriately sized.