NFL Touchdown Predictions: The 3 Best Anytime TD Bets for Giants vs. Commanders

Welcome back to my top NFL touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football! We’ve got the Giants hosting the Commanders at MetLife Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET, and it looks like we’re getting another J.J. McCarthy start for New York.

McCarthy against Jayden Daniels gives us an interesting quarterback matchup, but injuries have been a major part of the story for both teams.

The Giants are 2-point favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, with the total sitting at just 41. Here’s another detail that caught my attention: Nobody is priced shorter than +120 to score a touchdown.

There isn’t an obvious favorite in this market, and the game total doesn’t suggest a whole lot of touchdowns to go around. I’m keeping the card selective rather than trying to squeeze half the active roster onto a slip.

The good news? We’re getting some appealing prices on players who are involved where it matters.

Here are my three NFL touchdown picks for Thursday, November 12.

The Best TD Bets Today: Commanders vs. Giants

• Rachaad White Anytime TD +175
• Isaiah Likely Anytime TD +190
• Malachi Fields Anytime TD +425

All referenced odds are subject to change.

Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown (+175)

I think we’re getting a little too much credit for uncertainty in this backfield and not enough credit for what Rachaad White actually does.

Yes, Austin Ekeler got more involved last week. White’s snap share dipped, but he still played nearly 60% of the offensive snaps.

That’s not a player disappearing from the game plan.

More importantly, White remains the guy Washington leans on near the goal line. For this particular bet, I care more about who gets the chance to finish a drive than who wins the afternoon’s total-snap competition.

He also has a target share approaching 10% with Terry McLaurin off the field. That gives us another way to get there if Washington’s scoring opportunity comes through the air.

We don’t need White to dominate every category. We need him to maintain his role near the end zone, with a little receiving involvement as a bonus.

At +175, I think the price is selling that combination short.

Isaiah Likely Anytime Touchdown (+195)

Isaiah Likely’s numbers with McCarthy require a little digging.

McCarthy has played at least 40% of the snaps in three games, and Likely’s overall target share has taken a hit in that sample––down to sub-20%.

Normally, that’s not how I’d like to open a touchdown recommendation. But where the remaining targets are going matters quite a bit.

During that McCarthy sample, Likely still leads the Giants with two touchdowns on end-zone targets, and he’s tied with Malik Nabers at three end-zone targets in those McCarthy games.

So, yes, the overall volume is less appealing. The work closest to a touchdown is still there.

I’m not betting Likely to pile up catches between the 20s. I’m betting on a big target with great ball skills continuing to get opportunities when McCarthy needs someone to finish a drive.

That’s a distinction worth making, especially when the price is +195.

A dip in targets would bother me a lot more if his scoring-area involvement had disappeared with it. So far, that hasn’t been the case.

Malachi Fields Anytime Touchdown (+425)

Here’s where I’m taking a smaller swing at a bigger number.

Malachi Fields isn’t my pick because I think he’s suddenly jumped Malik Nabers in the pecking order. Nabers has an elite 31% target share in the three games where McCarthy has played at least 40% of the snaps, and I have no issue with betting him to score, either.

Again, Likely is at 18% in that sample, with Fields at 15%.

The difference for me is the price. At +425, Fields doesn’t have to be the first option to be an interesting option.

He has three targets inside the 20-yard line in those McCarthy games. That’s particularly notable because he has only four all season despite playing plenty of snaps each week.

In other words, most of his red-zone opportunities have arrived with this quarterback getting meaningful playing time.

Surprisingly, Fields also leads the Giants with an 81% snap share inside the 10-yard line this season. Being on the field doesn’t guarantee a target, of course. But I’d rather take a long shot on someone who’s consistently out there near the goal line and has started getting more relevant opportunities with the expected starter.

The sample is small, and this is still the most speculative of my three picks. At +425, though, there’s enough here for a small wager.

What About Washington’s Pass Catchers?

This is where I had a tougher time narrowing things down.

A few weeks ago, Dan Quinn said Stefon Diggs’ role wouldn’t necessarily increase without Scary Terry. Looking at the target shares with McLaurin off the field, he’s been at least partially right.

Diggs’ share actually dips by about two percentage points. Meanwhile, Antonio Williams gets a boost of more than five percentage points, and Chig Okonkwo’s increases by about nine.

That makes Williams and Okonkwo interesting, especially with both playing plenty of snaps.

Then you look closer to the end zone, and Diggs makes his case. He leads Washington with six targets inside the 20 this season, including five end-zone targets. Daniels clearly hasn’t forgotten about him in the red zone.

I also like that Diggs moves between the outside and the slot more than the other two. There are different ways to get him involved rather than leaving him in one spot all night.

The problem is choosing which receiver gets the opportunity.

Washington’s passing distribution isn’t as concentrated as New York’s, and the Giants have been the better defense overall. I can find something to like about all three pass catchers, but that doesn’t mean I need to bet all three.

For this card, I’m sticking with White on Washington’s side and taking my receiving chances with Likely and Fields.

Good luck with your Thursday Night Football touchdown bets! Play responsibly, and keep the longer-odds props appropriately sized. A bigger payout doesn’t need to mean a bigger wager.

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