The NFL is on to Week 3, and we have some big role changes to work with as we move into the weekend. Thursday night features the Falcons traveling to Green Bay, while Sunday gives us a tight end with a rapidly growing red-zone role and a 49ers star who is being managed overall but remains heavily involved where it matters most.
There is a full buffet of anytime touchdown props and first touchdown scorer options on the board. Let’s get into my best NFL TD bets for Packers vs. Falcons (and a couple for Sunday, too!)
All odds via Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Packers-Falcons
Let’s start with Thursday’s best touchdown bets:
Falcons vs. Packers TD Prediction: Matthew Golden (+200)
Jayden Reed looks like he is going to miss significant time, which is brutal for Green Bay. But it should open the door for other Packers pass catchers, and Matthew Golden is the guy I want to bet.
Golden and Christian Watson have been used in almost identical ways near the end zone. Between the two, they have played 33 of Green Bay’s 36 available red-zone snaps this year. Golden has missed only two of those snaps, while Watson has missed just one.
That is massive.
Tucker Kraft is still being managed to some degree, so he has not been on the field enough to really threaten the wideouts’ red-zone opportunity. Golden and Watson are the two receivers getting the valuable snaps, but the market is asking us to pay +135 for Watson and offering +200 on Golden.
I’m not sure the gap should be that wide.
Atlanta has been an absolute mess defensively, and things got worse when the Falcons put All-Pro corner A.J. Terrell on injured reserve. They have also leaned heavily on zone coverage, particularly Cover 3, and Golden and Watson have posted nearly identical results against the coverage looks Atlanta has shown.
Golden’s tape has looked really good too. He may not have Watson’s established reputation, but he has been competitive with him in production and has a very similar high-leverage role. With Reed out, I think Green Bay’s target tree becomes more concentrated.
At +200, Golden is the Packers receiver I want to target.
Packers vs. Falcons TD Prediction: Drake London (+185)
Drake London has had a miserable start to the season, but this is all about the quarterback change.
Cooper Rush was awful, and Atlanta is now handing the offense to Michael Penix Jr. There could be rust here – Penix had pretty much no live 2026 work and has not taken many meaningful hits recently — but I would rather bet on Penix’s upside than continue watching the Falcons’ offense struggle with Rush.
More importantly, Penix loves throwing to London.
The sample from last season is not huge, but it is wild. In the 188 offensive plays where Penix was not on the field, London had a sad 8.9% target share. With Penix on the field, London commanded a 33.9% target share across 488 plays.
That is an absurd difference.
Atlanta has somehow not run a red-zone snap through two games, which is obviously not sustainable. Even if the Falcons remain bad, they will eventually get near the goal line. When that happens, London will be the player I want exposure to.
He has also played 88% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps, comfortably leading the team’s skill players. The role is not the concern. The quarterback play has been the issue, and Thursday gives London an immediate chance to benefit from a major change.
At +185, I think this number is way too high for a No. 1 receiver with this kind of historical connection to his new starting quarterback.
More Week 3 Touchdown Bets for Sunday
Let’s dive into a few Sunday touchdown picks.
Panthers vs. Browns TD Prediction: Darren Waller (+300)
Darren Waller scored twice last week, and I understand why some bettors will be worried about chasing the box score. But this is not just a “he scored twice, bet him again” play. The role changed.
In Week 1, Waller played 33% of Carolina’s offensive snaps. He was on the field for only three of 10 snaps inside the 20 and two of seven inside the 10.
Then came Week 2.
Waller’s overall snap share increased to 43%, but the important jump happened in the red zone. He played 16 of 24 Panthers snaps inside the 20 and nine of 13 inside the 10.
That is a huge shift in one week.
Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker have played all 20 of Carolina’s snaps inside the 20 this season, so they are obviously still the core perimeter options. But Waller has increasingly become the big body Bryce Young can use in scoring territory.
He was signed for this kind of role. Waller moved around the formation during training camp, including time in the slot, and he showed with Miami last season that he still has enough left in the tank to make plays in the red zone.
At +300, I think this is a pretty awesome number for a player who was on the field for nine of 13 snaps inside the 10 last week. It is a longer-odds bet, obviously, but that is the exact type of role I am willing to sprinkle.
Cardinals vs. 49ers TD Prediction: George Kittle (+175)
George Kittle is still being handled carefully in terms of his overall snap count, but Kyle Shanahan is using him when the 49ers get into the most valuable areas of the field.
That is all I really need from a touchdown prop.
Kittle played 11 of San Francisco’s 12 red-zone snaps in Week 2, and he was on the field for all seven snaps inside the 10. He also tied Deebo Samuel for the team lead with a 20% first-read rate.
The playing time is not always going to look perfect in the full-game box score. But if Kittle is running routes when San Francisco gets close, he does not need to be an every-down player to cash an anytime touchdown bet.
The 49ers have one of the highest implied team totals of Week 3 against Arizona. I will be looking to bet Kittle at a reasonable plus-money number.
Just to reiterate: I am not pretending these are the most likely players to score. Price and risk are a major part of the equation, and I would rather take shots on the right roles at plus money than lay a huge price on an obvious touchdown favorite.
Good luck with all of your Week 3 touchdown bets and parlays.
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