MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Monday (April 27)

We’re back for another week of baseball action, and this time we’re dealing with a smaller, tougher slate for our MLB home run picks today. There are a lot of good arms on the board, and the hitting weather is not quite as friendly as it was last week, but there are still a few gems to hunt for on Hard Rock Bet.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, April 27

• Will Smith +400 (Dodgers vs. Marlins – 10:10pm ET)

• Ben Rice +325 (Rangers vs. Yankees – 8:05pm ET)

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. +475 (Rangers vs. Yankees – 8:05pm ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Will Smith +400

We’ll start in Los Angeles, where Chris Paddack and the Marlins visit the Dodgers. Paddack was once a pretty highly touted prospect, but this version of him has been far from that, and I’m more than happy to pick on him again when it comes to home run best bets.

In 2025, Paddack ranked in just the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 10th percentile in strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant. He also sat near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity allowed and barrel rate, which is exactly the profile you want to attack when you’re hunting for home run picks.

He has been a tick better so far in 2026, but nothing he’s shown really changes who he is at a career level. Over roughly seven-plus seasons of MLB data, we have a pretty clear idea of Paddack’s tendencies, and I’m calling for some negative regression sooner than later. He’s also shown some reverse-splits vulnerability this year, allowing a .250 ISO to right-handed hitters.

That points us straight to the heart of the Dodgers’ lineup. Both Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez make sense, but I’ll plant my flag on Smith at +400 on Hard Rock Bet.

Last season, Smith posted a .225 expected ISO and ranked in the 75th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging, per Baseball Savant. He has never had an issue handling right-handed pitching, and even with a slower start to the surface numbers in 2026, the quality-of-contact profile is still clearly there.

The weather is pretty neutral in this one compared to the rest of the slate. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is projected to be around 60 degrees with a slight breeze blowing out to right-center, which is just enough of a nudge to like the matchup even more.

Smith at +400 is my favorite home run pick today.

MLB Home Run Prediction Today: Ben Rice +325

Now to Texas, where the Yankees face Jack Leiter. Leiter has real long-term appeal, and I’m a fan overall, but there are a few things I want to flag in today’s specific matchup.

Per Baseball Savant, Leiter ranks in just the 11th percentile in barrel rate (14%) and the 21st percentile in hard-hit rate so far in 2026. That is not the underlying profile of a pitcher who should be shutting anyone down, even if the results look okay on the surface.

The bigger flag is the split. Against left-handed hitters this season, Leiter has allowed a .184 ISO, but his expected ISO sits all the way up at .284 per AddMoreFunds. That is a massive gap and a strong sign that he’s been getting lucky against lefties from a power perspective.

The Yankees, of course, have a bevy of left-handed options, which is pretty funny to say after a couple of years where they were hard-pressed to find a decent lefty in the lineup.

Let’s take a look at the Hard Rock Bet MLB odds:

• Ben Rice +325
• Trent Grisham +425
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. +475
• Cody Bellinger +500
• Austin Wells +500
• Ryan McMahon+700.

To narrow it down, I’m going with Rice as the most realistic lefty to go yard. Rice owned a .285 expected ISO against right-handed pitching in 2025, and this season it is even higher, well above .300. He’s also sporting an absurd, unsustainable ISO rate against right-handed fastballs. But the point is: he’s mashing them, and that’s Leiter’s go-to pitch vs. LHB.

Rice’s Baseball Savant page reads like fiction right now. He ranks in the 94th percentile or better in pretty much everything that matters; he’s in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, and his barrel rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging, launch-angle sweet-spot rate, and bat-speed numbers are all A++ grades.

If I gave you Rice’s hitting context there while covering up his name, you’d think I was talking about someone like Aaron Judge. Rice at +325 is a strong number for how he’s actually hitting the ball, and maybe he’s the next big star in the American League.

Home Run Pick Today: Jazz Chisholm Jr. +475

For my third and final pick, I’m doubling up on this Yankees-Rangers matchup with Jazz Chisholm Jr. at +475.

Chisholm has finally flashed some of that power (and won a Hard Rock Bet player nearly $2 Million in the process) after complaining a few weeks ago that it was too cold out to hit. Well, we’re almost in May now, and he has a lot of work to do to get anywhere near that 50-50 season he talked about in the offseason.

Globe Life Field has a roof, and with temperatures in the mid-80s in Texas, the hitting environment is going to be very good regardless of how they play it.

Layer that on top of the Leiter splits, and it’s an easy spot to add Chisholm.  We should see some regression from Leiter against left-handed hitters, and +475 is a very solid number for a guy who slugged .508 and hit 25 homers against right-handed pitchers in 2025.

Home Run Notes for Monday, April 27

Here are a few things to consider when shaping your MLB home run predictions today:

• The Astros’ bullpen has been atrocious, allowing a league-leading 25 home runs and pitching to a 6.31 ERA. The Nationals aren’t far behind with 24 home runs allowed. Neither team is on tonight’s slate, but those numbers are still eye-opening.

• Of the active bullpens tonight, Tampa Bay has allowed the most home runs, which is a big change from the Rays’ recent history of a strong relief corps.

• The downside to the Yankees’ angles is that the Rangers hold the league’s best bullpen ERA at 2.86, with just nine home runs allowed, so you really want these Yankees hitters to get to Leiter early.

• Miami’s bullpen has been stingy as well, allowing just seven home runs, which is worth keeping in mind around the Will Smith pick.

On the weather side, per Kevin Roth’s analysis at PropFinder, the two borderline-appealing spots outside of Yankees-Rangers are Rays at Guardians (Progressive Field projected north of 70 degrees with some wind blowing out to left) and Cardinals at Pirates (PNC Park around 70 degrees, but with winds that lean slightly negative for hitters).

All things considered, the Yankees vs. Rangers environment still feels like a top-three spot on the slate for home run hunting.

On a slate this thin, I’m keeping my home run stakes small. Good luck!

All referenced odds are subject to change.