We made it to another Friday and we’re back to hunt some home runs on July 10 with MLB home run picks on Hard Rock Bet. I’ve got four best HR bets lined up for tonight, so let’s dive into the action.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, July 10
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Riley Greene +325 (Phillies at Tigers – Comerica Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
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Randal Grichuk TBD (Athletics at White Sox – Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
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Kazuma Okamoto +275 (Blue Jays at Padres – Petco Park – time TBD)
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Pete Crow-Armstrong +300 (Cubs at Reds – Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Riley Greene +325
We’ll start in Detroit, where the Tigers host the Phillies at Comerica Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. What do we know about Aaron Nola? He loves to serve up a fairly regular meatball or two. Even in a year where he isn’t getting completely obliterated, he’s surprisingly yielding a career-high 41.5% fly-ball rate.
Now we’re into the heart of summer, it’s going to be in the low 80s in Detroit, and one of those fly balls can absolutely carry a little more off Riley Greene’s bat.
Greene has two home runs across his last five games and is slugging right around .700 in July, including a multi-homer game against the Yankees on June 30. Zoom out to a week-to-10-day sample, and he’s absolutely murdering the ball.
Deep down, this is still the same Nola: a great arm but prone to giving up loud contact in bunches. It’s an awesome matchup for Tigers lefties, and the Phillies’ bullpen sits slightly below league average and has allowed north of 40 home runs this season.
Give me Greene, who’s really finding his groove, against a fly-ball pitcher in hot-hitting weather who’s no stranger to giving up taters.
MLB Home Run Pick: Randal Grichuk
Next, I’m going with Randal Grichuk as the White Sox host the Athletics at Guaranteed Rate Field at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Jacob Lopez is set to take the bump for Oakland, and I was super wrong about him early. I had high hopes for him as a breakout pitcher, but the results have been rough: a 7.04 ERA, though his expected numbers sit right around league average. One thing keeping me slightly reeled in is that he does not give up a ton of barrels or hard contact.
Normally, a pitcher who doesn’t give up barrels or hard hits wouldn’t be my first target, but Lopez has been bad on the road too with an ERA north of 6.00. However, he owns a pretty terrible ninth-percentile ground-ball rate and has already surrendered nine home runs to right-handed hitters.
Grichuk isn’t a perennial power bat at this stage. He’s a 34-year-old journeyman, but he does have seven home runs and six doubles in just 83 at-bats against left-handed pitching, good for a .602 slugging percentage.
This is pretty much a splits-and-price play. The odds should be long if and when he’s confirmed in the starting lineup. I’d treat it as a lunch-money sprinkle, but with partly cloudy skies and temps in the high 70s in Chicago, I really like the number.
Additionally, it’s Munetaka Murakami’s first game back from the IL. This is an elite matchup for him too. If you want some action and don’t think he’ll need to knock off any rust, he’s worth a strong look.
MLB Home Run Pick: Kazuma Okamoto +275
Next, we’ll roll with Kazuma Okamoto to go deep as the Blue Jays visit the Padres at Petco Park, where southpaw JP Sears will be on the mound.
Okamoto has been an absolute unit and has been as advertised since coming to the States, already sitting on 21 home runs and counting.
Sears, like Nola, has a long history of giving up fly balls and plenty of power. This season he’s allowed an ISO north of .200 to both sides of the plate, and those power numbers look almost identical if you go back to the beginning of 2025 — consistently underwhelming.
He throws his fastball north of 40% of the time to right-handed hitters dating back to last year, and Okamoto has absolutely demolished left-handed fastballs: a ridiculous .476 ISO against that pitch in a smaller sample.
Overall, he carries a .224 ISO in 85 plate appearances against lefties, and we already know the power has translated stateside. He ranks in the 80th-percentile range in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Wheels up for Okamoto against a below-average left-handed arm.
MLB Home Run Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong +300
We’re going to roll with a fourth home run pick and take Pete Crow-Armstrong to go deep as the Cubs visit the Reds at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Hunter Greene made his first start of the season on July 4, and it was ugly: eight earned runs, one homer allowed, in just 3.1 innings, even though he did strike out seven.
I still expect him to get back to being one of the game’s elite at some point, but we know from the last couple of seasons that while he strikes out north of 30% of hitters, when he gives up contact, it’s extremely loud.
That’s exactly what we’re banking on here. I don’t care if PCA strikes out three times, as long as the fourth trip is a banger over the fence.
Dating back to the beginning of last year, Greene has allowed a .227 expected ISO to left-handed hitters while striking out over 33% of them. Since the start of 2025, Crow-Armstrong has posted a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching and is a very good slider hitter, with a .323 ISO against right-handed sliders — Greene’s out pitch.
We’ll just hope Greene hasn’t fully rounded into form yet and take our hacks at some loud contact off PCA’s bat.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets!
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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