Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 31 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s close out August by targeting three power bats in strong matchups, beginning with a trip to Coors Field.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, August 31
- Pete Alonso +220 (Orioles at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
- Corbin Carroll +550 (Phillies at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)
- Kody Clemens +350 (Tigers at Twins – Target Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
8/31 MLB Home Run Pick: Pete Alonso
We’ll start at Coors Field as the Rockies host the Orioles. Tanner Gordon is set to take the ball for Colorado, and as always, it is a luxury to target hitters at Coors Field — especially while it’s still warm outside.
Gordon has been slightly better against right-handed hitters than lefties, but he is still a very targetable pitcher. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the eighth percentile in ground-ball rate allowed, 17th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 15th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
That is music to my ears when there is a superstar hitter enjoying an amazing season on the other side. Pete Alonso owns a .266 expected ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and his advanced metrics are through the roof. He has lived up to every dollar Baltimore gave him in the offseason.
With Gordon’s contact profile, the August heat, and the elevation at Coors Field, Alonso gets one of the premier power matchups of the day. Colorado’s bullpen is also absolutely atrocious, so it really does not matter much who comes in after Gordon.
Alonso should hit near the top of Baltimore’s lineup, and as the road team, the Orioles are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat. That can pay big dividends every once in a while when we are sweating a home run prop.
Monday MLB Home Run Bet: Corbin Carroll
Next, we’ll head to Chase Field as the Diamondbacks host the Phillies at 9:40 p.m. ET. Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia, and he is putting together another season of serving up meatballs.
Nola owns an ERA north of 5.00 and ranks in just the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 15th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and below league average in ground-ball rate. He has surrendered a whopping 32 home runs this season — 19 to left-handed hitters and 13 to righties.
That brings Corbin Carroll into the conversation. Carroll has had a little bit of a down year by his lofty standards, but he has still launched 19 home runs, with 14 coming against right-handed pitching.
Nola is a fly-ball pitcher who has been crushed by lefties, and Carroll is the type of hitter who can take advantage with one swing. Chase Field is also one of the best controlled hitting environments in baseball. You always know what you are getting indoors, with no weather worries.
I like Carroll from the left side of the dish against Nola in this one.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Kody Clemens
Finally, we’ll go to Target Field as the Twins host the Tigers at 7:40 p.m. ET. Jackson Jobe is scheduled to take the mound for Detroit, and while his front-facing numbers look pretty good, there are some warning signs in the underlying profile.
The sample is still a little small, but Jobe has been allowing power to left-handed hitters. He has given up a .241 expected ISO to lefties while striking out only 17% of them.
That is a very interesting setup against a Twins lineup that suddenly has some power. Kody Clemens has been enjoying a late-career breakout at age 30, and he owns a .238 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Clemens should be hitting in the middle of Minnesota’s order, and the advanced metrics have been pretty darn good all things considered. He has demonstrated legitimate power all season, and he gets a young right-hander who has had trouble missing bats and suppressing damage against lefties.
This is a really nice spot for Clemens to do some damage.
Good luck Monday!
MLB Home Run Leaders (8/31)
As of Sunday night:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies — 40
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs — 38
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros — 37
- Junior Caminero, Rays — 37
- Matt Olson, Braves — 37
- Hunter Goodman, Rockies — 36
- Ben Rice, Yankees — 35
- Pete Alonso, Orioles — 32
- Sal Stewart, Reds — 31
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers — 30
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