NFL Week 6 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Joe Raineri

Alright, we’re heading into Week 6 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend.

We went 3-2 last weekend, and we’ll look to do better this week. Let’s dive into these games.

Texans vs. Jaguars: Under 42

We’re going to start like we did last week, in London, with Houston taking on Jacksonville.

The Hard Rock Bet app has Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 42.5.

I’m going back to the well here because before their win last week versus Tennessee, the Texans were giving up about 27 points a game.

But look at who they played: Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas. All real offenses. And by the way, each of those games was played indoors in perfect conditions.

An average team with that schedule likely averages 51 or 52 points a game in combined scoring. Houston’s games averaged about 44.

I make the Houston offense about three points a game worse than average.

But keep in mind, this week, no David Montgomery, and Tank Dell is out.

And here is the strange part. Houston went and traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s averaging 6.2 yards a target this year.

The four receivers he’s taking targets from on the Texans averaged 8.7 yards a target. They gave up a second-round draft pick to get less efficient in the wide receiver room.

Now, Jacksonville has its own problems. Don’t get me wrong. Left tackle Anton Harrison went on IR this week, and this is a division game on grass.

These two teams know each other too well, which is why I don’t see this game being any sort of wild shootout.

If you need a side, I certainly lean Jacksonville because they’ve been in England for two weeks. They’ve shown us in seasons past that they’re much better in their second game when they stay across the pond.

Houston has just landed.

My number on this total is about 39.5 or 40, and I can get 42 at Hard Rock Bet.

So, you know what? I’m going back to the well. I am taking the Under.

I think the defenses are going to be the story of this game.

Pick: Texans-Jaguars Under 42

Steelers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers +2.5

Game number two. How about Pittsburgh traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs?

Hard Rock Bet has Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on the road, with the total now down to 39.

My first question is, how many points is Baker Mayfield worth?

Because with Mayfield, I make Tampa Bay a 2.5-point favorite in this game. Hard Rock opened it with Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite.

Now, that is a 5.5-point difference for one quarterback.

I don’t rate Mayfield that high here. This year, play for play, Mayfield has been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league.

Now, the kid replacing him, Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie, just won in Dallas. And oh, yeah, he’s run for 80 yards on 13 carries in his two starts.

Pittsburgh has not seen a quarterback who can run all year, and that Pittsburgh defense ain’t getting any younger.

Now, if you flip it, Tampa Bay and Todd Bowles, you know what they love?

They love the blitz. In fact, they do it around 40% of the time this year.

Aaron Rodgers, well, he’s seen a blitz or two, but just 27% of his dropbacks this season.

Good for him, because against the blitz, Rodgers has been terrible. He’s 42. The idea that he is escaping anything is ridiculous.

I’m sorry, but I don’t think Pittsburgh should be a road favorite in this spot.

By the way, who is Rodgers actually throwing it to?

Michael Pittman Jr. is on IR. Roman Wilson is out.

And one more thing, Tampa played last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to get ready for this game. Pittsburgh has had a normal week.

My numbers make Tampa a 2 to 2.5-point favorite.

It’s already moved to +2.5 at Hard Rock Bet, so I will gladly take the Bucs and the points as a home dog against the Steelers.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

Jets at Patriots: Patriots Team Total Under 26.5

Game three is the New York Jets at the New England Patriots.

Hard Rock Bet has the Patriots as a 7-point favorite, with the total sitting at 43.5.

Last week, New England dropped 45 points on the board and gained 536 yards. That’s their most since 2021.

I’m going to approach this week a little differently for the Patriots because I’m betting they don’t get to 27 points versus this Jets defense.

Drake Maye has been really good, but just look at the last two weeks against Buffalo and Vegas.

This week is a different animal with this Jets defense.

The Jets are allowing 4.6 yards per play through the air. That’s 4.9 yards a pass.

Only Seattle has actually been better than the Jets, and that is not luck.

All three starting corners for the Jets are allowing under six yards a target.

Brandon Stephens is giving up just 42% completions. The safeties behind him, 6.2 yards a target.

And the pass rush is getting real.

Eight sacks against Cleveland last week, three of them from a rookie in David Bailey.

The bottom line to me is that the Jets are now able to get pressure on a consistent basis, and they’re able to defend the back end.

Deshaun Watson is likely still in the ice tub after that beatdown last week.

And the Jets offense, well, I think this helps what we’re looking at as well.

Why? Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in five starts. Trust me, I’m as shocked as you are.

But five starts, no picks for Geno Smith. No turnovers also means no short fields and no easy points.

A.J. Brown might play for the first time since Week 1, and yes, I’ve taken that into consideration.

But my numbers still make the Patriots a 6-point favorite and the total under 42.

That puts New England at roughly 23.5 points. I see value in fading this Patriots team total.

Pick: New England Patriots Team Total Under 26.5

Panthers at Eagles: Panthers -3.5

Game four. How about Carolina at Philadelphia?

This game has been all over the map, as you might have heard this week.

Hard Rock Bet opened it with the Eagles as a 1.5-point favorite at home. Well, it now sits with Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite on the road.

Let’s recap what the week has been like for the Eagles.

Sunday, they had a game in London. Monday, they had a flight home across the ocean.

Thursday, they find out that Jalen Hurts has a blood clot in his calf, and he won’t be playing.

And waiting for them, by the way, is a Carolina team that spent last week on a bye, rested and watching all of this happen in front of them.

Unbelievable.

This kind of crazy scheduling spot has happened just four times, with teams traveling from overseas back home and having to play the following week against a team coming off a bye.

And those teams coming home from overseas? Yeah, they’re 0-4.

The Eagles are going to start Tanner McKee. He’s got two career starts, both, I think, in Week 18.

His backup is a rookie if they don’t bring back Andy Dalton.

So, what was already thin in depth is even thinner now for Philadelphia.

And with Saquon Barkley still not practicing this week, he’s expected to miss another game.

Tank Bigsby is already on IR. Will Shipley is hurt. Dameon Pierce and Carson Steele are in the backfield.

The problem is, that’s not a backfield. That’s the last cut in August, and somehow they brought these guys back because they have nobody else.

Last week with Barkley out, Philadelphia ran for 22 yards total versus the Jags defense.

Now, the good news is DeVonta Smith might be back. But he was limited Thursday, and the word out of Philly is they’re optimistic he’ll be able to play.

That helps McKee, but it does not fix this team.

They’ve lost three straight for a reason and just crossed the ocean twice in eight days.

And Carolina is rested, having watched all of this unfold?

I’ll lay the 3.5 with the Panthers, who are sitting in first place right now in the NFC South.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3.5

Chargers at Chiefs: Under 41.5

My fifth and final game this week is the Chargers at Kansas City.

Hard Rock Bet has the Chiefs as an 8-point favorite, with the total sitting at 41.5.

Let’s take a look at who Patrick Mahomes is throwing to on Sunday.

Tyquan Thornton, 14.6 yards a target this year. No, he’s done for the season.

How about Rashee Rice? 11.2 yards a target this year. Oh, he’s likely not playing either.

So that means Xavier Worthy is the number one receiver with his six yards a target so far.

Oh, don’t forget Jalen Royals. He’s got 21 total receiving yards.

Not this season, by the way. That’s for his career.

Yes, Travis Kelce is still reliable. But with nobody to worry about outside, the Chargers can sit on Kelce or Noah Gray, and they can walk a safety down to the line of scrimmage to help with Kenneth Walker.

Now, Walker is running for about 134 yards a game and Kansas City is going to lean on him.

That’s fine with this defense. It’s a top-10 defense against the run per carry.

Now, the Chargers offense? 16.8 points a game. They have not scored more than 23 points in a game all year.

Both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, are expected to be out again.

Those two allowed pressure on 3.9% of the snaps.

Their backups? Yeah, they’re allowing it on 8.6% of the snaps.

Justin Herbert has enough problems without more people in his face.

Ladd McConkey should be back. Kansas City will just double him up because the rest of that receiver room is averaging barely five yards a target.

So, I’ve got two offenses without their weapons.

I make this number 37.5 – I’m expecting a rock fight.

Give me the Under in Arrowhead.

Pick: Chargers-Chiefs Under 41.5