We’re previewing Spurs-Thunder, and this is probably the series I’ve been most excited for in my time covering the league — maybe since the 2016 Western Conference Finals or NBA Finals.
It’s two of the clear best players in the world going against each other, with two extremely talented teams. Both have legitimate weaknesses the other can exploit. I view this as a coin flip. I don’t think either team has a clear, distinct, obvious advantage.
Spurs-Thunder Season Series Recap
The season series went dramatically toward San Antonio. They won 4-1, though I’d throw out the final game because Oklahoma City sat its guys. So call it 3-1.
The in-season tournament semifinal was OKC’s first real look at Victor Wembanyama, and they were completely overmatched. Every time Wemby went off the floor, the Thunder made runs. Every time he came back, San Antonio took control. The Spurs were plus-21 with him on the floor in a two-point win.
In the second matchup, Oklahoma City actually took a four-point lead in the third quarter before San Antonio blitzed them and pulled away. Then came the Christmas Day disaster for OKC. Wemby was on a minutes restriction and came off the bench, but once he checked in, the Spurs beat the brakes off them.
OKC’s lone real win came after Christmas, when the Spurs had hit a rough stretch. That game was competitive into the third quarter before Wemby banged knees with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sat, and the Thunder blew it open.
The Numbers Behind SAS-OKC
In the regular season matchup, the Spurs had a plus-5.9 net rating and a 115.1 offensive rating. Oklahoma City had a 109.2 offensive rating.
San Antonio also won the margins. They grabbed 31% of their own misses compared to 27% for OKC. The Thunder, who forced 16.7 turnovers per game against the league, forced just 13.4 against the Spurs. Their points off turnovers dropped from 22 per game overall to just 14.6 in this matchup.
San Antonio was plus-2.6 in points off turnovers, plus-2.6 in second-chance points, and plus-three in fast-break points. The Spurs can hang with Oklahoma City athletically, and that showed up.
Spurs vs. Thunder Odds at Hard Rock Bet
All of our lines are provided by our partner, Hard Rock Bet.
Oklahoma City is the favorite at -260 to win the series. San Antonio is the underdog at +210.
I understand why the line looks that way. OKC is the defending champion, has arguably the best player in the world, and has the experience advantage.
But I think San Antonio at +210 is a great betting opportunity because I view this as a coin flip series. If one team is giving you better than 2-to-1 odds in a matchup I see as close to even, I like that value.
The Victor Wembanyama Problem
The big question is simple: how does Oklahoma City solve Victor Wembanyama?
The Thunder had a 99.6 offensive rating against Wemby-led groups in the regular season. That’s the same problem everyone has with him: he shuts down the basket.
OKC thrives on dribble penetration. Against teams like Phoenix and the Lakers, that forced defenses to send multiple bodies, which opened up kickouts and drop-off passes. With Wemby, San Antonio doesn’t have to send as much help. He covers so much ground that those kickouts aren’t as clean, and those midrange pull-ups are tougher.
Shai shot 57% on midrange jumpers against San Antonio this year, but the film showed a lot of really difficult looks, especially when Stephon Castle was pressuring him with Wemby behind the play. Castle can press up, be physical, and know he has elite help behind him.
How OKC Can Attack
Oklahoma City needs Shai to keep finding those midrange windows, but they may also need to get Castle switched off him through actions like double drag.
Isaiah Hartenstein’s Gortat screens could matter, too. There were moments where he sealed Wemby and opened up driving lanes. If Hartenstein can have more success there, it allows OKC to play bigger and more physically.
Chet Holmgren also has to score. He averaged just 10.5 points on 39% from the field and 20% from three in the regular season matchups. If he’s playing the five, he has to be the guy who spaces Wemby out.
Small-ball lineups could also be a key. On Christmas, Alex Caruso got wide-open “dare you” threes when Wemby helped at the rim. If Caruso hits enough of those, it changes the geometry.
San Antonio’s Offensive Pressure
On the other side, OKC can try guarding Wemby with wings like Jalen Williams or Caruso. They do okay, but there are possessions where they’re just physically overwhelmed.
That also creates another issue: it forces Chet to guard San Antonio’s perimeter players. Those guys are shooting it well. Julian Champagnie is at 45% from three in the playoffs, Devin Vassell is at 44%, and even if Vassell has struggled at times, he’s due to get hot based on the quality of looks he gets.
If Chet stays glued to shooters, the rim is open. If he helps, San Antonio gets clean threes.
The Swarming Question
OKC will swarm Wemby, and they have to do some of that to force turnovers. But it creates problems elsewhere.
There were plays where the entire Thunder defense loaded up on Wemby, and Stephon Castle, sitting weak-side corner, could cut in for offensive rebounds or open looks. That spacing geometry could be important for San Antonio.
I also wonder if OKC increases its ball pressure. They didn’t force many turnovers in the regular season matchup, and they lost the points-off-turnovers battle. But pressuring San Antonio’s guards also risks giving up early dribble penetration. That’s a real chess match for Mark Daigneault.
The Key Swing Factors
This series could come down to role-player shooting. If Alex Caruso shoots 45% from three and Steph Castle shoots 25%, that could determine the winner. If Castle shoots 45% and Caruso shoots 25%, that could determine it the other way.
Turnovers are another major factor, especially for Castle and Wemby. Both will get swarmed — Castle on drives, Wemby on posts, drives, and seals. If those turnovers spark OKC’s defense-to-transition game, that’s where the Thunder can score before Wemby gets back into the play.
Crunch time matters, too. De’Aaron Fox versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is huge. Even though San Antonio won the regular season clutch numbers, if it’s a tied playoff game with three minutes left, I’d still bet on Shai.
And Chet’s scoring is a major swing factor. If he can score against Wemby and space him out, that changes the series.
Jason Timpf’s Spurs vs. Thunder Pick
- Spurs in six: +550
I think the Spurs steal Game 1, OKC gets Game 2, and San Antonio holds home court from there, winning Games 3, 4, and 6.
But to be clear, I view this as something like 55-45 in favor of San Antonio. Oklahoma City absolutely can win this series.
That’s why I like San Antonio at +210 on Hard Rock Bet. For a team I think has slightly better than a coin-flip chance to win, getting better than 2-to-1 odds is great value.
This is as excited as I’ve been for a playoff series in a long time. It should be legendary.
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