Jason Timpf’s NBA Rookie of the Year Deep Dive: Flagg or Kon?

As promised, we are continuing our mid-season awards check-in, focusing on NBA Rookie of the Year today. I’m going to be doing a deep dive on Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel – specifically why Cooper is such a big favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

That’s the entire premise today. Kon Knueppel has been awesome. He’s been a legitimate franchise-swing type of rookie. But when you dig into the details, there are a couple of foundational reasons why the market has landed where it has, and why I still think this award is Cooper’s to lose as long as he stays on the floor.

Latest NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Cooper Flagg is a massive -700 favorite at Hard Rock Bet. Big drop after that with Kon Knueppel at +350. Then a massive drop to VJ Edgecombe at +7500, and then an absolute chasm before you get to Derik Queen and Cedric Coward at +50000 each.

When you see a number like -700 in an award market, it usually means the same thing: you’re not betting on performance, you’re betting on something weird. In this case, it’s injury luck. And we’ve already gotten a positive update on that front. Tim MacMahon reported that Cooper is probably going to be back right away after the All-Star break. That matters, because the only real pathway to the field in this market is Cooper missing extended time.

What’s interesting is the raw production is fairly close. Cooper is at 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists on 56% true shooting. Kon is at 19, 6, and 4 on 65% true shooting. So this isn’t a situation where Kon is some distant second by the numbers. The gap is being created by role, responsibility, and two-way impact.

The Two Big Separators: Defensive Impact and Self-Creation

There are two fundamental differences between their situations that keep me leaning Cooper.

First: Cooper Flagg is already a much more impactful defender. Kon’s defense is mostly off-ball. He’s primarily guarding an off-ball shooter, doing basic backside defensive reps, and he gets picked on one-on-one like a lot of skill guards do. He’s had some success in spots and some issues in others, but I think overall he’s going to be a fine defender. That’s the important part: defending well enough in a team context to give your team a chance to win.

But Cooper is something different. He is a game-changing type of defender because of his length, his ability to play passing lanes, and his ability to make help-side rotations at the rim. Even at the simplest level, Cooper is averaging over twice as many stocks per game.

Second: within this season, Cooper has carried a much heavier burden as an on-ball creator. He has 667 self-creation possessions according to Synergy including passes – pick and rolls, isos, post-ups. Kon is at 278. You can close that gap a little bit by accounting for the off-ball action Charlotte runs for Kon, but the general point stands. Cooper has been asked to break the defense down off the dribble far more often.

It shows up in drives, too. Cooper has been one of the better drivers of the basketball in the NBA this season, and that’s a direct indicator of offensive responsibility. That doesn’t mean Kon couldn’t do more. It does help explain the efficiency gap. One of the reasons Kon is at 65% true shooting versus Cooper at 56% is that Kon is more often playing with an advantage, operating as a cog in the system rather than the guy responsible for cracking the shell possession after possession. That efficiency is absolutely a feather in Kon’s cap, but it’s influenced by that usage difference.

When you combine that higher offensive responsibility with the bigger two-way impact, those are completely legit reasons why Cooper should get the award.

The Upside Flashes: 30-Point Games and the Superstar Gear

There’s also an upside element that tends to matter in awards conversations, whether people admit it or not. Cooper has seven 30-point games. Kon has four. Cooper has a 42-point game and a 49-point game. Kon has yet to score 40 in a game.

That’s not me nitpicking. That’s a real separator in terms of the ceiling you’re watching show up in real time. Cooper has flashed more of that superstar gear.

Kon Knueppel’s Season is Special, Even If It Doesn’t Win the Award

None of this is meant to diminish what Kon has done. He’s been incredible. An absolute smash hit. I talked recently about contender rankings, and Kevin O’Connor mentioned he wished the Spurs would have taken Kon. Hard to disagree under the circumstances. Kon has been that good.

This is the kind of rookie hit that can legitimately change a franchise’s fortunes. It’s not all Kon – Brandon Miller has improved, LaMelo Ball has been more healthy, and there are other players on the roster that have hit. Moussa Diabate as a roll-man partner has helped. The offensive rebounding between him and Ryan Kalkbrenner has been valuable. There’s a lot of good stuff going on in Charlotte.

But zoom out: the Hornets were the 29th-ranked offense last year, and this year they’re top 10. Not all Kon, but he plays a huge role in that success. That matters. That’s the kind of player you draft and suddenly your whole trajectory changes.

It’s just that, for Rookie of the Year, the specific shape of Cooper’s impact – two-way dominance plus on-ball creation burden plus higher-end scoring eruptions – puts him in the driver’s seat.

Cooper Flagg Deep Dive: The Surprise Is the Driving and Rim Finishing

From a scouting standpoint, the most impressive surprise from Cooper’s NBA debut has been his ability to get into the paint off the dribble and finish when he gets there.

In draft circles, one of the concerns that floated around was his first-step quickness and his ability to finish at the rim – especially finishing with his left hand around the basket. To this point as a rookie, he’s had no issue breaking down defenses off the dribble. He’s logging 12.3 drives per game according to NBA.com. That’s in the same volume territory as guys like Austin Reaves and De’Aaron Fox, and more than some famous drivers like Anthony Edwards and Russell Westbrook.

That’s a huge deal because he’s only going to get better as he adds muscle mass and wins more leverage battles. Dribble penetration is ball handling plus first-step quickness, but once you’re driving, it’s a shoulder-to-shoulder leverage fight. Cooper is already getting downhill, and as he gets stronger and sharper with angles and timing, that part of his game should rise.

On finishing: he’s at 60% at the rim as a rookie. He was 58% at Duke. And he’s been 3% better specifically at layups, meaning rim finishing that isn’t a dunk. Spacing is better in the NBA, but so is rim protection and perimeter defense talent, so I still view that 60% as impressive. It’s a quality benchmark for pros, and he’s already there.

Long term, I think 65% at the rim is a reasonable target. That’s where the Jayson Tatum comparison comes in. Tatum was 61% at the rim in his lone season at Duke, but he was 55% as an NBA rookie and didn’t climb into that 65% territory until last year when he was at his healthiest. Cooper is a little ahead of schedule on that specific curve, and if you’re using Tatum as a developmental north star, that’s a very good sign.

Why It Still Comes Back to Cooper for ROY

Kon Knueppel has been phenomenal, and the Hornets’ improvement is real. But Rookie of the Year usually lands on the guy who checks the most boxes at once: production, responsibility, consistency, availability, and two-way impact.

Cooper has the defensive game-changing component that Kon doesn’t. Cooper has taken on a far bigger share of the burden of breaking down defenses off the dribble. And Cooper has flashed a higher peak with the big scoring explosions. If he stays healthy, that combination is why he’s sitting at -700, and why, when I stack the cases side by side, I still think it’s pretty straightforward that it’s Cooper.