GoLow: John Middlekauff’s Best Bets for 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

What’s going on everybody? I took last week off because I was at the NFL combine and it was the Cognizant Classic. Moving forward, I plan on doing a lot more of these. I’m even a little under the weather right now, but I gotta get out some golf takes.

We’ve got Bay Hill this week, Arnold Palmer’s tournament. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite. We’ll hit on some guys to bet on. We’ll go back to the Cognizant, which I didn’t have high hopes for but still had an incredible finish – something we don’t get enough of anymore. I’ll go over a couple things that really jumped out to me regarding the Shane Lowry situation.

And then we’ll end with some schedule talk, how the PGA Tour is planning to change when they open the season. So, we’ll talk about some of that. Let’s get into it.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

I remember several years ago, Hunter Mahan – former PGA Tour winner, former Ryder Cup’er – is a big football guy, and we become buddies over the years. I remember him telling me that players don’t like this course, and that Tiger didn’t like this course, but he played out of reverence for a legend, Arnold Palmer.

I play at TPC, so Tony Finau and I think his oldest son practice there a lot. They go to the back of the range. No one bothers him. I remember one year – this would have been maybe two or three years ago – this I’m pretty sure was an elevated event. And Tony didn’t go. I ran into him right at the cart barn where you get your balls.

Remember asking him, “Why aren’t you there?” He was like, “I don’t like this. I hate that course.” And because of the points that year or whatever, he didn’t need to go, but he wasn’t a big fan. Just like I think most guys aren’t.

And one thing Hunter told me, if you go back to the Byron Nelson when he was alive, players felt obligated to go, right? So Jack’s tournament, Arnold’s tournament, and Byron Nelson’s tournament, when they’re all alive, there’s somewhat of an obligation to attend. When he’s sitting in the front row and greeting you after the event like Jack does, like Arnold did, and Byron Nelson did, there’s a human element to it.

Now, this is a historic venue because it’s Arnold. Well, he’s gone now. We have new leadership with no ties to this. The players have never had more juice. I do wonder if over the next several years this tournament kind of gets thrown to the wayside.

I don’t think they would ever not play at Bay Hill, but it would not shock me if they truly go to the tier system where you have the Top 70 guys playing in their own tournaments, and then the bottom guys trying to qualify to make those tournaments. This becomes a second tier event. That never would have happened if Arnold Palmer was alive, but he’s not.

When you watch it, it doesn’t look like a fun course to play. For me, the most memorable moment besides some of Tiger’s putts on 18 was when Bryson just juiced up and flew the ball over the water on hole six. It felt like it flew 700 yards and he still made par because it actually was a bad angle to try to get up and down.

Middlekauff’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

• Scottie Scheffler (+325)
• Collin Morikawa Top 10 (+200)
• Keith Mitchell Top 30 (-105)

Now, the top guys are playing this week, and Scottie got one of his first wins on the PGA Tour here. I think he won the Waste Management in 2022 and either a week or two later, he won here. So, it might’ve been his second career win.

Scottie is an even par round on a Thursday away from already having like five wins this season. So to me, I don’t see how you could not bet on Scottie Scheffler this week.

He’s had success. He clearly knows going in: I just have to keep the train on the tracks on Thursday. I don’t need to shoot five under. Can I just shoot even par? Can I shoot one under? Can I just be in 20th place?

He did not play last week, obviously, at the Cognizant. I would imagine a refreshed Scottie, ready to roll. And to me, I’m going to hammer him at +325.

Another guy who easily could have won last year was Collin Morikawa. He showed serious signs of life at Pebble Beach. To me, it wasn’t just winning… it was like, okay, he still got it when he shot 10 under on Saturday.

Let’s face it, Morikawa is supposed to be one of our horses right now. When you separate it through the lens of the Ryder Cup, we have our Tom Brady, our Patrick Mahomes, our LeBron James, and that’s Scottie. And then we need three or four guys to immediately draft off him.

Collin in theory should be in the crew right there with Xander as being one of our best players. He should be an elite iron player. And his talent is immense. If he can just not get injured, he’s probably a 20-time PGA Tour winner. He already has two majors.

You can get Morikawa to finish Top 10 this week at 2-1 odds. This is all on Hard Rock Bet.

And my last pick – a little bit of a sleeper – is southern guy Keith Mitchell, Cashmere Keith. You can get him at -105 to finish Top 30.

This course…the rough is always brutal. You gotta hit the fairway. Well, what do Morikawa and Keith Mitchell do a lot? They’re pretty accurate off the tee.

Now does Keith Mitchell have potential to win outright? Probably not. Do I think Keith Mitchell is going to win this week? I do not. Do I think that he could finish Top 20? I do.

So to me, Keith Mitchell is a guy that I like a lot. And I think Scottie is the only guy out of the favorites that I would feel comfortable betting on, which is crazy because he’s only +325. And the one thing when you bet on Scottie is even if he gets off to a bumpy start, a guy’s going to be there when the dust settles, which is really all you can ask for from a golf gambling standpoint.

Cognizant Classic Reaction

One thing that makes golf – or historically has – a lot different than other sports is: you’re kind of just out there by yourself.

We all can relate to whether you’re shooting 89, 90, 100, or whether you’re shooting 70: we’ve all been out there cruising along… and then all of a sudden you make a bad swing and that ball goes left or right and you immediately forget everything you’ve done. Your confidence is gone.

And to me, what used to happen… golf was hard. You know why? The equipment sucked. Hitting the fairway, hitting the ball far, hitting the ball straight was extremely difficult in 1995.

And now when you lose your confidence, most of these guys, it’s like, hey, I just have to get a bogey here… with the modern technology, they could choke down, they could play fairway finder. They could figure it out. Back then, you were screwed.

And to me, for the first time in a long time, you watched a high-end player – this is a guy that’s won a major, this is a very important player on Europe’s Ryder Cup team – implode. Hole 16 and 17, pumps in the water twice. Right at the water both times. Couldn’t have had a worse swing. And I thought it was the most relatable.

I wanted Shane Lowry to win. I was rooting for the guy, but it just felt like golf needs more of these moments.

And I thought him going on camera after and doing an interview – which a lot of guys skip lately – props to him. It wouldn’t have been an easy one for me. So, props to him.

Potential PGA Tour Schedule Changes

Flashback to Riviera a couple weeks ago… it rained and the tournament wasn’t as good. It’s been well documented in golf circles: it sucks.

Tiger talked that week: there are certain months of the year where you almost 100% know this isn’t even an option. And one thing that has been floated out there… they’re trying to figure out: is the Waste Management going to be the season opener for the PGA Tour? The Thunderbirds are kind of adamant that they want to keep it Super Bowl week. And I would push back against that. I would make it the week after Super Bowl.

The one thing golf has going for it is besides football, everything is open. Baseball, basketball, nothing – and I mean nothing – has the market cornered. Basically, right after the Super Bowl until training camp starts is complete open real estate. Everything is for the taking.

So, I’m all for starting this the week after the Super Bowl. I would not go head-to-head with the Super Bowl because I just think you get lost in the shuffle.

To me, it’s a no-brainer. The number one thing I would do is rip up the calendar and not be beholden to areas – just because we’re in California, we’ve got to stay here for three weeks.

In the NFL, no one cares if you played New York on a Sunday and your next Thursday night game is in Dallas. You’re just traveling. I would expect Rolapp to mix things up dramatically because these guys have no margin to complain anymore.