Exactly one hundred World Cup matches are in the books. Just four remain. The 2026 World Cup reaches its business end on Tuesday afternoon as the two pre-tournament favorites finally collide in Arlington, Texas. France vs. Spain. Match 101. A semifinal worthy of the final itself, featuring two of the deepest squads in international football and no shortage of world-class talent.
Neither side has given much away on the road to the last four. France has won all six of its matches, scoring 16 goals while conceding just twice. Spain opened the tournament with a surprising scoreless draw against Cinderella story Cape Verde, but has been nearly untouchable ever since. La Roja’s stout defense was breached for the first time during their quarterfinal win over Belgium, but they still have an astonishing defensive record of just one goal conceded across six full matches.
We’re ten days removed from the Fourth of July, but fireworks are on the calendar as these two heavyweights kick off at 3 p.m. ET. Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has betting markets on every angle of France vs. Spain. Below, you’ll find the latest odds, a betting preview, and my favorite Spain vs France predictions and picks for the first World Cup semifinal.
France vs Spain Odds
This one could well go 120 minutes, but the 3-way moneyline betting market grades out after the first 90. Bettors can take their stance on either team to win in regular time, or back the draw here. Current odds for Spain vs France are:
- 🇫🇷 France to Win: +150 (betting favorite)
- 🪢 Tie/Draw: +195
- 🇪🇸 Spain to Win: +220 (betting underdog)
Spain vs France: Odds to Advance
- 🇫🇷 France Odds to Advance: -150 (60% implied probability to advance)
- 🇪🇸 Spain Odds to Advance: +115 (46% implied probability to advance)
If you’re new to betting on soccer, especially knockout round soccer, extra time and penalties are a real possibility and that is baked in to the 3-way moneyline market. However, there is another option for betting on the eventual outcome: the ‘to advance’ market. All that matters here is picking the team that wins and moves on to the final. It’s a simpler bet to sweat – you’re either right or wrong about who moves on and you don’t have to worry about how it happens.
For the implied probability figures we simply popped the current lines into our odds calculator. These percentages can help bettors conceptualize how big of a favorite, or how much of an underdog a team is.
France vs Spain Predictions & Picks
Now it’s time for my favorite part – the betting picks. Here are my favorite Spain vs France predictions, featuring insight and info from the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub:
Spain vs France Prediction: France Moneyline +150
For my money, France is the best team in the world. You could make a good argument that three of the best five players in the world play across their front line with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise, and as you move down the roster the quality doesn’t drop much – all the way back to William Saliba and Dayo Upamecano who are likely the best international center back pairing in the tournament.
Sure, this one could go to extra time but you’d need to lay -160 on the France to Advance market to build in that insurance. If we think France are better, and I do, I like taking my chances on France to win in regulation with the 3-way moneyline market at +150.
Per Stats Hub, including qualifiers France has won eight straight World Cup matches – I like betting on a 9th.
France-Spain Anytime Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappé +105
We’re getting the best goalscorer in the history of the World Cup — 20 goals in 20 career World Cup Games — and we’re getting him at plus odds. Make no mistake, this is a major test for France. Spain are wonderful on the ball, they are solid at the back, they have talented full backs, and will present a massive challenge for Mbappé and company. But at the end of the day, according to Stats Hub, he’s scored a goal in 10 of his last 11 World Cup games including qualifiers. That’s an absolutely lethal record.
He shows up in big games. He’ll take the penalty if they get one (though he did miss against Morocco!), and I think this is the best anytime goalscorer prop on the board for France vs Spain.
The Super Sub Play: Dani Olmo Anytime Goalscorer +425
I wrote this one up for the Spain vs Belgium game as well and it played out exactly as we hoped, so I’m going back to the well at a more generous price. The logic on this one is that Dani Olmo is likely to start the game and he offers a decent goal threat for Spain from midfield. He’s got a good overall goalscoring record for both club (20 goals in 2 seasons at Barcelona) and country (12 goals in 56 games for Spain), and he nearly opened his account for Spain at the 2026 World Cup against Belgium last week with a close range shot that forced a save and ultimately led to the team’s opener.
But the beauty of this play at +425 is that you’re very likely to get Mikel Merino as your Super Sub. Through the Super Sub promotion that Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook offers, if the player you bet to score comes off the field as a sub, the player that subs on continues your bet. At this tournament when Olmo comes off, Merino comes on – we’ve seen this substitution pattern repeated over and over again – and Merino has been sensational in relief.
Mikel Merino to the rescue
Merino himself played as a stand-in striker for Arsenal in 24/25 and was quite effective, and he’s been in fine form for the Spanish national team, too. In 2025 he scored 8 goals in 10 games for Spain, and he’s come off the bench to score a late winner in each of Spain’s last two knockout round World Cup games. He’s an intelligent player who knows how to read a defense, and I love getting him for the last bit of this game at a juicy price, combined with Olmo’s early game potential.
World Cup Futures: One Game from the Final
The winner of this game will play for it all on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, so the odds to win the World Cup for both of these teams are as low as they’ve been.
France World Cup Futures Odds
- 🇫🇷 France to Win the World Cup: +145
Spain World Cup Futures Odds
- 🇪🇸 Spain to Win The World Cup: +300
Spain-France Lineups / Starting XI
The lineups are now confirmed for the first World Cup semifinal:
Spain Lineup
- Oyarzabal
- Baena
- Olmo
- Yamal
- Ruiz
- Rodri (C)
- Cucurella
- Laporte
- Cubarsí
- Porro
- Simón
France Lineup
- Mbappé (C)
- Dembélé
- Olise
- Barcola
- Rabiot
- Tchouaméni
- Digne
- Saliba
- Upamecano
- Koundé
- Maignan
France vs Spain Match Info
- 📍 Location: Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, Texas
- 📅 Date: Tuesday, July 14
- ⏰ Start Time: 3:00pm ET
- 📺 Where to Watch: FOX, Telemundo
- 🏆 Stage: World Cup Knockout – Semifinal
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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