It’s Week 8 in the NFL, and I’ve got my top five props for this week’s slate.
All five picks and odds are courtesy of Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Ashton Jeanty Under 27.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s start with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets.
The Jets are laying 1.5 points, and the total has gone up from 44.5 to 45.5.
I like Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty Under 27.5 Receiving Yards.
For someone averaging 45 receiving yards per game this year, don’t you think it’s a little fishy that the number is so low? Because I do.
Jeanty is averaging 12 fewer receiving yards per game on the road this season, and the Jets have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.
That’s why we’ve seen nine of 14 running backs go under their receiving-yard props against New York.
The Jets added All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and it’s helped Dane Belton, who currently leads the team in tackles.
Linebackers Jamien Sherwood and Demario Davis have also been great at recognizing play-action passes and limiting checkdowns and screens.
That’s going to make things difficult for Jeanty in the passing game.
We’re going Ashton Jeanty Under 27.5 Receiving Yards.
Baker Mayfield Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
Another game with a short spread, which I like because it helps avoid the possibility of a blowout.
We’ve got a divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, with the Bucs laying 2.5 points.
The line opened at Tampa Bay -1.5 and has moved in favor of the Bucs throughout the week. The total is sitting at 45.5.
We didn’t see much of Baker Mayfield throwing the football last week against Carolina.
The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in football, and with Mayfield coming off an injury, Tampa Bay knew it didn’t need its quarterback to throw much.
Mayfield attempted just 11 passes. The Bucs went to their running backs, and it worked.
Now Baker is going to have to throw.
That’s why I’m taking Baker Mayfield Over 29.5 Pass Attempts.
In three home games against Atlanta, Mayfield is averaging 35 pass attempts per game.
At home against divisional opponents, he’s averaging approximately 33 attempts, going over 29.5 in 60% of those matchups.
Here’s a crazy stat: Every quarterback to face Atlanta this season has gone over his pass attempts prop.
The Falcons have allowed the second-most pass attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks at 41.
Atlanta has struggled to generate any kind of consistent pass rush, leaving quarterbacks with plenty of time in a clean pocket to throw the football.
Give me Baker Mayfield Over 29.5 Pass Attempts against Atlanta.
Jacoby Brissett Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
This next game has a little bit larger of a spread, but do we really trust Dallas laying 6.5 points?
No.
The total has also climbed from 53.5 to 54.5.
I’m looking at Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett Over 9.5 Rushing Yards against the Cowboys.
This season, against defenses that rank bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, Brissett has gone over this number in two of three games, with performances of 18 and 16 rushing yards.
Now he’s facing Dallas, which is allowing the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this year.
Five of the seven quarterbacks to face the Cowboys have gone over their rushing-yard props.
Dallas has struggled to generate consistent pressure. When quarterbacks have time in the pocket and a play breaks down, they’ve been able to take off and run.
That’s exactly the kind of opportunity I’m looking for with Brissett.
No matter how old he is, he’s still a mobile quarterback.
Take Jacoby Brissett Over 9.5 Rushing Yards.
Kyren Williams Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
This is a big one. We’ve got the Chargers against the Rams.
The line has moved against the Rams, going from -7.5 to -6.5. The total dropped from 45.5 to 44.5 before bouncing back to 45.5 at Hard Rock Bet.
I’m looking at Rams running back Kyren Williams Over 59.5 Rushing Yards.
Over Williams’ last 10 home games against teams that rank bottom 10 against the run, he’s averaging 83 rushing yards per game.
He’s gone over 59.5 rushing yards in 70% of those matchups.
The Chargers have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game to running backs.
Look at what opposing No. 1 running backs have done against this defense.
Tyler Allgeier went over his 34.5-yard rushing prop with 61 yards. James Cook went over 80.5 with 154 rushing yards.
Emanuel Wilson cleared 45.5 with 81 yards, while J.K. Dobbins went over 51.5 with 68 rushing yards.
Then you’ve got Kenneth Walker III, who had a huge game with 128 rushing yards, easily clearing his 94.5-yard prop.
Ashton Jeanty is the only one of those running backs who went under his rushing yard prop.
Williams should feast at home.
The only reason he wouldn’t is if you believe in the line movement against the Rams and think this is going to be a close game where they’re forced to throw the football more.
But until the Chargers prove to me that they can win a freaking football game, I’m not buying it.
Not that I trust the Rams that much, either, but this Chargers run defense has been so bad against No. 1 running backs.
It feels like the perfect opportunity for another huge game from Kyren Williams.
Give me Over 59.5 Rushing Yards.
Patrick Mahomes Over 33.5 Pass Attempts
Last but certainly not least, we’ve got the Kansas City Chiefs laying 1.5 points on the road against the Denver Broncos. The total is 40.5.
This is a rematch from Week 1, when the Chiefs dominated Denver 31-10 at Arrowhead.
Now we’re going to Denver, and I think Kansas City needs to change things up.
At first, I looked at this matchup and thought the Chiefs would lean on Kenneth Walker III again, just like they did in the first meeting.
They’ve got a legitimate No. 1 running back, and that gave Denver a different look the first time around.
But now it’s time to change the script.
The good news is Patrick Mahomes throws a ton in Denver, which is why I’m taking Patrick Mahomes Over 33.5 Pass Attempts.
In his last four games in Denver, Mahomes is averaging 42 pass attempts per game. He’s gone over this number in all four.
On the road against defenses that rank bottom 10 in pass attempts allowed, Mahomes is averaging 36 attempts per game, clearing this number 80% of the time.
Denver is allowing the fourth-most pass attempts per game this season, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 38 attempts.
We only saw Mahomes throw 27 times in the first meeting, so I’m expecting a different approach this time around.
The Broncos rank top 10 in both blitz rate and pressure rate. They’re going to stack the box and fill the gaps to contain Walker.
And we know how good Mahomes is in the short passing game.
With a short spread, a divisional rematch and a great head coach in Sean Payton on the other sideline, I think this game should be much closer than the first one.
That means Mahomes should have to throw the football more.
Give me Patrick Mahomes Over 33.5 Pass Attempts.
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