No. 1 Miami vs. No. 11 Notre Dame Picks, Predictions & Preview: Must-Win For Irish

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have their backs against the wall in the College Football Playoff race, and Saturday night’s matchup against the No. 1-ranked Miami Hurricanes feels like a must-win.

Notre Dame sits at No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings, and there’s not much room for error at this point. Miami has a little more wiggle room, but not much. I wouldn’t want to leave the fate of my football program in the hands of this playoff committee right now.

We’ve got Miami and Notre Dame. We’ve got the return of Catholics vs. Convicts. And we’ve got two of the best quarterbacks in college football going head-to-head in South Bend.

I’ll be up there this weekend, and I’m excited to see this one in person.

Miami’s Defensive Line Needs to Take Over

For me, the biggest key to this matchup is Miami’s defense. Can these guys tackle and get off the field?

I expect them to show up a little pissed off after a really bad defensive performance against North Carolina. And I expect this Miami defensive front to do everything it can to take over the football game.

Coming into the season, I expected superstar performances from Justin Scott, Ahmad Moten and Armondo Blount.

They’ve played good football. I don’t think they’ve played great football.

Maybe I expected too much after watching Moten during last year’s playoff run. Maybe I thought Justin Scott was ready to make that big jump in year three. And maybe I looked at Blount, a 6-foot-4, 275-pound defensive lineman with tremendous athletic ability, and expected him to dominate.

But this is the kind of game where those guys have to play like the superstars I thought they would be.

Miami’s defense has generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a high rate, and that’s going to be critical against Notre Dame. Because when I look at the Hurricanes’ secondary, I’m not sure we’re going to find the answers we’re looking for there right now.

The defensive line has to take over.

Notre Dame’s Defense Has Something to Prove

On the other side, I want to know whether Notre Dame’s defense is going to play the way I expect it to or whether we’re going to see another performance like the one against BYU.

Some of the Fighting Irish’s best defensive players didn’t play particularly well in that game.

Adon Shuler, the safety wearing No. 8, is a guy I expected to be making open-field tackles and delivering big hits. I didn’t think he played very well against BYU, and he’s got to have a much better performance Saturday night.

I also didn’t think Notre Dame’s defensive tackles were ready for that fight against BYU.

Even Leonard Moore was attacked in certain situations on critical downs.

These guys have to get right defensively, because they’re going to be facing a Miami offense with plenty of weapons and a quarterback who’s been outstanding all season.

Darian Mensah vs. CJ Carr: A Potential Quarterback Showcase

If I were an NFL general manager looking to draft a quarterback, this would be QB1 versus QB1 for me.

Darian Mensah and CJ Carr are two guys I’d absolutely consider drafting if I needed a quarterback this year.

Mensah has been unflappable all season long. He’s been playing tremendous football, and I give him a slight edge going into this matchup.

But Carr has an opportunity to put up some enormous numbers against this Miami secondary.

That’s what makes this quarterback battle so interesting to me.

Can CJ Carr match the offensive production I’m expecting from Darian Mensah?

I think he’s capable of doing it. And if this turns into the kind of quarterback duel I expect, we’re going to see both guys make some big-time throws.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction

I’ve got both quarterbacks putting on an absolute laser show in this football game.

I think this matchup lives up to every bit of the hype, and we get the best quarterback duel we’ve seen in college football this season.

And I’m giving CJ Carr the edge.

I’ve got Notre Dame winning 30-28 on a last-second, walk-off field goal.

Notre Dame has no room for error. That’s a big part of my reasoning here.

We’re still playing college football, and there’s still something to be said for getting your guys ready to go when everybody has you backed against the wall.

I think home field advantage matters. I think the urgency of this game matters.

Notre Dame has to have this win, and I think the Fighting Irish find a way to get it done.

But they’re going to have to play almost perfect football to make that happen.

With Notre Dame favored by 5.5 points at Hard Rock Bet, I’ll take Miami +5.5 against the spread.