Happy Monday! We have a fun NFL matchup between the Seahawks and Bears on MNF! There’s a ton of star power on the field, which should make for some great touchdown betting today!
Zach Charbonnet is back, Colston Loveland is thriving with Caleb Williams in the fold again, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to put up numbers that barely look real.
I’m targeting all three, with different reasons to like their paths to the end zone. Let’s get into my favorite touchdown picks for Monday, November 2, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Seahawks vs. Bears Touchdown Props for MNF
- Zach Charbonnet +130 Anytime TD
- Colston Loveland +220 Anytime TD
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -110 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
MNF Touchdown Pick: Zach Charbonnet (+130)
Kenneth Walker fantasy managers probably don’t need much of a refresher on Zach Charbonnet’s goal-line role.
They’ve lived through it.
Charbonnet is back after missing the season to this point, and Mike Macdonald’s comments last week caught my attention. Seattle’s coach said Charbonnet would have a specific role and described him as a “three-down” back.
Now, that doesn’t mean he immediately returns to a full workload. There’s uncertainty whenever a player comes back from an extended absence, and we shouldn’t pretend the comments give us an exact touch projection.
But we know how much Seattle liked using him near the goal line last season.
Charbonnet played 75% of the Seahawks’ snaps inside the 5-yard line, compared with Walker’s 28%. And that was with Kenneth Walker—the same guy everyone’s raving about in Kansas City this year.
Heard of him?
Seattle wasn’t shy about giving Charbonnet valuable work when it had another talented runner available. That history matters when we’re trying to figure out what his “specific role” could look like Monday.
I’m not assuming every part of last season’s workload carries over immediately. But he doesn’t need 20 touches to make this bet interesting if Seattle puts him back in its goal-line packages.
At +130, I’m willing to buy into that possibility. The injury return creates some ambiguity, but it also gives us a price I’m happy to take on a player this coaching staff has trusted close to the end zone.
Monday TD Prediction: Colston Loveland (+220)
Colston Loveland looks pretty happy to have Caleb Williams back.
Over the last two weeks, Loveland leads Chicago with a 26% target share and a 38% air-yard share. Those are alpha-receiver numbers coming from a tight end.
We spent time waiting for his talent and opportunity to translate into production, and the passing game looks much more encouraging with Williams back in the mix.
The scoring-area opportunities are there too. During that same two-week stretch, he leads the Bears with four targets inside the 20-yard line and two end-zone targets.
That’s what makes this more appealing than simply backing a tight end coming off a couple of good games. Williams is looking for him throughout drives and when Chicago has a chance to finish them.
Loveland also has a massive red-zone snap share. He’s the guy where it matters; it just took a few more weeks to start playing out the right way. At +220, I like getting better than 2-1 on a player who’s been functioning as Chicago’s featured pass catcher.
MNF TD Prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-110)
I’m sure Jaxon Smith-Njigba will show up in plenty of touchdown articles Monday. Sometimes, there’s a pretty good reason everyone lands on the same name.
JSN has a legitimate argument as the best offensive player in football right now. His usage is absurd, and it’s difficult to look at this Seattle passing game without coming back to him.
He owns a 33% target share and a ridiculous 52% air-yard share this season. He also leads the NFL with a 43% first-read rate.
That combination gives us volume, downfield opportunity, and a clear indication of who the Seahawks want involved. Of course, Seattle looks for him in the red zone. But Chicago’s defense also gives him a path to score without needing a drive to reach the doorstep.
The Bears are allowing explosive receptions at a rate well above the league average. Against a receiver commanding more than half of his team’s air yards, that’s a dangerous weakness.
I usually prefer plus-money prices, but I’m not going to force a longer shot just to avoid a little juice. At -110, Smith-Njigba’s role and big-play matchup make him worth backing.
Good luck with all of your MNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these props – strong usage helps build the case, but it doesn’t guarantee the result.
