NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Joe Raineri

We’re heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend.

We’ve got some big divisional matchups, a few defenses I really like, and a Monday Night Football showdown in Seattle to wrap things up.

Let’s dive into the games.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Under 44

We’re going to start in Tampa Bay this week, as the Buccaneers take on the Atlanta Falcons in a big NFC South battle.

Hard Rock Bet has Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total dropping to 44.

And there are certainly weather concerns for Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Atlanta has played four straight games in a dome. Now they’re heading outside, and the forecast is calling for rain throughout the game with wind.

They’re going to hand it to Bijan Robinson. And they’re going to hand it to him against a Tampa Bay defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL.

Atlanta’s defense looks a little better than average, but look at who they’ve played: Green Bay with a broken offensive line. Baltimore with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. San Francisco last week without Mike Evans and with Christian McCaffrey for about half the game.

Now, Baker Mayfield came back from his thumb injury last week, and Tampa Bay beat Carolina 43-13.

Mayfield threw for just 64 yards on 11 passes. They won by 30 points, and he mostly had a good seat for it because the defense did most of the work.

I expect Mayfield to get better, but nobody knows exactly how that thumb is going to respond just yet.

So, Tampa Bay is likely going to run the football again, just like it did last week with Bucky Irving.

Both teams running the ball in the rain and wind? I don’t see that clock stopping a whole lot.

I made this total 40 given the current conditions.

I’ll keep an eye on that weather report before kickoff, and you should too.

But if it holds steady, I think there’s great value there, which is why I’m taking the Under.

I’ll also lay the 2.5 points with Tampa Bay at home as a bonus play.

Far too many people think Atlanta, coming off that win against the 49ers, is somehow going to go on the road and run over this Buccaneers team.

I do not.

Pick: Falcons-Buccaneers Under 44

Cardinals at Cowboys: Cowboys -7

My next game involves the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Dallas Cowboys.

Arizona has a pretty decent excuse for its struggles this season.

Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit, the Rams, Denver. That’s been the schedule.

But even if we grade the Cardinals on a curve, I still make them about six points per game worse than an average NFL team.

And here’s the real problem.

Nobody in football is making fewer big, explosive plays than Arizona. Only five teams throw the football shorter down the field.

And Jacoby Brissett isn’t going to fix that.

I think that matters in this game because big plays are the one thing the Dallas defense has been giving away.

Only one team has allowed more of them.

But Dallas traded for Joey Porter Jr., and he’s finally healthy.

We saw that against Philadelphia last week. Nine targets against him, just 10 yards allowed.

The guy he replaced? He gave up 117 yards on nine attempts. He’s now back on the practice squad.

Now, Trey McBride is going to get his 11 or 12 targets a game, averaging 6.1 yards per target.

Congratulations. He can have them.

On the other side, we watched Dallas put up 38 points and 416 yards in Philadelphia on Monday night.

Now the Cowboys get a defense that’s second-worst in football in yards allowed per play.

Arizona is also dead last against outside receivers, giving up almost 11.3 yards per target.

Lay the points. Give me the Cowboys at home.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7

Browns at Steelers: Steelers -3.5

Game three for this week involves Cleveland taking on Pittsburgh.

And I know the trend: a team flies home from overseas, doesn’t get a bye week, and gets punished the following Sunday.

I actually used that angle myself two weeks ago.

But I’m going to ignore it this time. Here’s why:

Aaron Rodgers has been saying that the flight home from Paris was the best of his 22-year career.

And for a 42-year-old quarterback, that’s basically telling you everything you need to know.

The Steelers are playing like it was the best trip back home. Three straight wins. They’re 3-0 at home.

In Paris, we watched Jaylen Warren run for 101 yards, and we watched that defense hold New Orleans to 18 rushing yards on 17 carries.

Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are back together. I don’t know how it is, but it’s working.

And yes, Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 last month.

But that was a Thursday night game in Cleveland. This one is in Pittsburgh.

The Browns are 5-2, but look at how they’ve gotten those five wins.

Deshaun Watson has five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter. Five!

This isn’t a team that’s dominating anybody. This is a team that apparently enjoys stress.

And playing that way is eventually going to catch up with them.

To me, that happens Sunday in Pittsburgh.

I expect Pittsburgh to get a little revenge against Cleveland and do what the Steelers have done for decades against the Browns.

Win at home.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

Chiefs at Broncos: Chiefs Team Total Under 20.5

Our fourth game is Kansas City at Denver. Back in Week 1, Kansas City beat Denver 31-10.

Kenneth Walker III ran all over the Broncos, finishing with 191 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

But that game was in Kansas City. And that version of Denver’s defense is long gone.

Since then, the Broncos are allowing just 18.3 points per game, fourth-best in football.

Sunday, Denver is going to sell out to stop Kenneth Walker.

They’re going to make sure he’s not the guy who beats them again.

That means it’s going to fall on Patrick Mahomes, playing behind an offensive line that’s been average at keeping him clean.

And he’s going against a Denver pass rush that’s getting home more often than all but two teams in the NFL.

Mahomes hasn’t been particularly good under pressure this season.

Sure, he can still make a big play here and there. But under pressure, he’s thrown three interceptions without a touchdown.

And who exactly is he throwing the football to on the outside?

Xavier Worthy certainly isn’t stepping up.

Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve, and I don’t think the tight ends are going to get it done against this Denver defense.

Now look at the Broncos offense.

Sean Payton took back the play-calling duties a couple of weeks ago, and since then, they’re running the football and taking their time.

Every long Denver drive means one fewer possession for the Chiefs.

Last week, Seattle held Kansas City to three points.

Denver has the defense to do something very close to that, and it’s happening in a building where visiting teams are usually running out of air by the fourth quarter.

The game total is 40.5, and I like the Under there as well.

But the cleaner bet, to me, is the Chiefs team total. Hard Rock Bet has it at 20.5.

I don’t think Kansas City gets to 21 points.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Team Total Under 20.5

Bears at Seahawks: Seahawks -3

My fifth and final play takes us to Monday Night Football, with Chicago visiting Seattle.

Now, let’s review what’s happened in Bear Country this week.

Two first-round draft picks. Gone. Why?

That’s what Chicago paid on Thursday to acquire three-time All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.

Fantastic.

And look, it might be a good trade.

Unless, of course, the Bears don’t win the Super Bowl. Then everybody’s going to be scratching their heads wondering whether it was all worth it.

But here’s my bigger issue with that trade. I think it fixes the wrong thing.

Chicago’s pass rush was already good. The Bears have recorded at least two sacks in every game this season.

The problem is behind that pass rush.

No defense in football gives up more long passes than the Chicago Bears.

And Monday night, they get to welcome Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who’s coming off a 150-yard performance against Kansas City.

Now, Chicago’s offense?

Nobody has been running the football better this season.

But the last three weeks have been their worst stretch on the ground under Ben Johnson.

Defenses are starting to figure out what they’re doing.

And Seattle just held Kansas City to 50 rushing yards.

So, it’s going to fall on Caleb Williams.

To his credit, Williams has been very good since the hamstring issue, throwing for around 300 yards in back-to-back games.

But the one great defense he’s faced was Minnesota. And what happened there?

Oh, that’s right. Chicago scored three points.

Now, here’s the risk, and I’ll say it out loud.

Seattle’s offensive line is being held together with duct tape and Elmer’s glue right now. Charles Cross is hurt, but that’s why the Seahawks traded for Quenton Nelson, who just arrived from Indianapolis.

Simmons and Montez Sweat are going to have opportunities to disrupt Sam Darnold.

That’s exactly why Chicago made the trade in the first place.

But even with Simmons, the Bears don’t have the best defense on the field in this game.

Seattle does.

And I’m still going to trust the better defense in that building on a Monday night.

I’ll lay the three with the Seahawks as they try to keep pace with San Francisco in the NFC West.

Give me the home team and the defending Super Bowl champions.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3