Happy Thursday! We have a fun NFL matchup as the Patriots head to Chicago to take on the Bears. This feels like a great game to make some NFL touchdown picks!
The point spread has Chicago as a three-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet, and the 51-point total gives us plenty of reason to dig into the touchdown props. Caleb Williams returned in style against Atlanta last week, and now he gets another chance to keep Ben Johnson’s offense rolling.
I’m looking at two Bears who could benefit from New England’s aggressive defensive approach, plus a Patriots running back whose goal-line workload is difficult to ignore.
Let’s get into my favorite touchdown predictions for Thursday, October 22, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Patriots vs. Bears Touchdown Props for TNF
- Caleb Williams +325 Anytime TD
- Luther Burden +185 Anytime TD
- Rhamondre Stevenson -105 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
TNF Touchdown Pick: Caleb Williams (+325)
Caleb Williams didn’t look like a quarterback who needed much time to shake off the rust.
He returned against Atlanta last week and immediately helped Chicago put points on the board. You’d think New England should offer more resistance, but this is still a game with a healthy total, and Williams looked comfortable getting back to work in Johnson’s offense.
For this bet, though, we need him to do the scoring himself.
The Patriots are blitzing at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL this season. That can create problems for a quarterback, but Williams has shown he’s willing to use his legs when defenses send extra pressure.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, he has the most scrambles against the blitz in the league. That is particularly notable considering he’s missed multiple games during that stretch.
Sending pressure doesn’t automatically mean giving up a rushing touchdown, obviously. But it can force Williams to leave the pocket, and he has the speed to turn an escape into something more dangerous.
We’ve seen him find the end zone fairly often with his legs over the past year and a half. He doesn’t need a designed quarterback run to cash this ticket. If New England brings pressure near the goal line and Williams spots an opening, he’s capable of taking care of the rest.
At +325, I like the price on a quarterback whose response to the blitz gives him a plausible rushing path.
Thursday TD Prediction: Luther Burden (+185)
Luther Burden is a different type of bet from the players I usually feature in these articles.
His snap share inside the 10-yard line hasn’t been at the level I typically want to target, but this is more about the matchup and the potential for a big play.
New England’s willingness to blitz could leave opportunities behind the pressure, and Johnson is exactly the type of play caller I want finding ways to exploit them.
The obvious concern is Christian Gonzalez. He is a fantastic corner, and I would rather not spend an entire game asking my touchdown pick to beat him.
But the alignment data makes Burden more interesting.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Gonzalez has not frequently followed receivers into the slot. Burden runs the majority of his routes there, while Rome Odunze is more commonly aligned on the boundary.
If that tendency holds, Burden could avoid Gonzalez on a meaningful portion of his routes.
That’s not a guarantee, but it doesn’t mean the bet is dead if Gonzalez spends more time on him than expected. It simply gives us a reason to think Burden could draw more favorable coverage than the matchup initially suggests.
I’m betting on Johnson and Williams finding him an opportunity to create something after the catch or break free for a bigger gain.
At +185, Burden offers a way to back Chicago’s passing game without needing the Bears to get all the way to the doorstep first.
TNF TD Prop: Rhamondre Stevenson (-105)
Sometimes, the argument doesn’t need to be particularly complicated. If New England gets close to the end zone, Rhamondre Stevenson is almost certainly going to be on the field.
He’s played all 10 of the Patriots’ snaps inside the 5-yard line this season and 23 of their 26 snaps inside the 10. That’s the kind of participation I want when considering a running back at a shorter touchdown price.
Chicago has also been better against the pass than the run this season, which makes New England’s ground game an appealing place to look.
In a game with a total north of 50, I’m willing to back a running back who has barely left the field in the highest-value areas.
Good luck with all of your TNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds prop bets – a favorable matchup gives us a reason to bet, not a guaranteed trip to the end zone.
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