Welcome back to my NFL best bets! We’re hunting touchdowns again for Week 6, and this week’s card has a tight-end theme.
Different paths, different prices, but there is a usage-based argument behind each one. Let’s get into my favorite Week 6 touchdown bets at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 6
- Tyler Warren +145 Anytime TD
- Colston Loveland +175 Anytime TD
- Pat Freiermuth +300 Anytime TD
- Charlie Kolar +475 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
Week 6 Touchdown Pick: Tyler Warren (+145)
The Titans took more injury hits in the secondary last week, and the adjustment to Robert Saleh’s defensive scheme remains a work in progress. In my opinion, this is the worst team in football right now, and Tyler Warren gets a chance to take advantage.
But I would still be interested in Warren’s role without the favorable opponent.
He’s tied for the Indianapolis team lead with a 96% snap share inside the 5-yard line. Expand that to the 10, and he leads the team outright at 92%.
There is not much mystery about whether he will be involved in the personnel package when the Colts get close. He’s almost always out there.
The fun part is that his touchdown does not necessarily have to come through the air. Warren also gives Indianapolis a tush-push option, providing another way to cash the bet if the Colts get right to the doorstep.
A tight end with receiving opportunities and a potential short-yardage rushing role? That works for me.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Warren eventually puts together one of those games where the touchdowns arrive in a hurry. We only need one here, and +145 is enough to get my attention against this defense.
Sunday TD Pick: Colston Loveland (+175)
Colston Loveland has spent much of the season catching passes from second- and third-string quarterbacks. That’s not exactly the easiest way for a talented tight end to turn opportunity into touchdowns.
Caleb Williams is officially questionable, but looking at the game total, my gut says he returns. Keep an eye on his status leading up to kickoff.
If Williams is back, this looks like a spot where Loveland can finally put that enormous red-zone role to work.
He’s played 25 of Chicago’s 26 snaps inside the 5-yard line and 43 of 49 inside the 10. The Bears aren’t taking him off the field when they get close. They just need the passing game to hold up its end of the bargain.
Atlanta’s defense has been absolutely miserable, and Loveland is too talented for me to believe the scoring opportunities will keep going unconverted all season.
Of course, talent and playing time don’t guarantee a touchdown on a particular Sunday. But a potential quarterback upgrade against this defense gives us a reason to expect more from those valuable snaps.
At +175, I like the setup, with Williams’ availability the key piece to monitor. If he returns, this could be a smash opportunity for Loveland.
Sunday TD Prediction: Pat Freiermuth (+300)
Apparently, handing the ball off near the goal line is optional in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are throwing on 81% of their plays inside the 10-yard line. Inside the 20, their 75% passing rate leads the NFL.
So much for making Rodgers turn around and give it to a running back.
That approach is exactly why Pat Freiermuth makes this card at +300. He’s enjoyed an excellent start to the 2026 season, but the overall production isn’t the main selling point.
Freiermuth has played 75% of Pittsburgh’s snaps inside the 20 and leads the team with five targets in that area. His three end-zone targets are also tied for the team lead.
The matchup shouldn’t discourage that tendency. Todd Bowles has historically built his defenses around stopping the run and making opponents beat him through the air. Pittsburgh already seems perfectly happy with that arrangement.
We have a tight end getting targeted in scoring territory, a quarterback being given the freedom to throw there, and an opponent whose defensive priorities could encourage more of the same. At 3-1, Freiermuth fits what I’m looking for.
Week 6 Long-Shot TD Bet: Charlie Kolar (+475)
Nobody is going to accuse us of chasing the biggest name on the board with this one. Charlie Kolar at +475 is a smaller sprinkle, but there’s a reason to look past the name.
Remember when Kolar briefly appeared atop the Chargers’ tight-end depth chart in August? It was easy to dismiss that as preseason depth-chart nonsense. As camp ended and Week 1 arrived, though, Los Angeles appeared genuinely interested in using him for more than pass protection.
Injuries interrupted that plan. Kolar missed Weeks 3 and 4 before returning last week, when he played both of the Chargers’ snaps inside the 5-yard line.
Across his appearances this season, he’s also been on the field for eight of their 12 snaps inside the 10.
That’s the part keeping me interested. His overall profile may not generate much excitement, but the Chargers have continued to use him close to the end zone when he is available.
Additionally, David Njoku is out, and Mike McDaniel has yet to get Oronde Gadsden fully going. In a game where Los Angeles should need to throw, Kolar has a plausible opening.
2026 NFL Red-Zone Usage: Snap Shares Inside the 10
Here are a few players who have been on the field for every one of their team’s offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line this season, with a minimum of 10 snaps played:
- Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 16 of 16 snaps (100%).
- Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints: 26 of 26 snaps (100%).
- Tet McMillan, Carolina Panthers: 26 of 26 snaps (100%).
- DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers: 11 of 11 snaps (100%).
Being on the field doesn’t guarantee a scoring opportunity or a touchdown, but it is a pretty important starting point.
Good luck with all of your Week 6 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – keep the long shots appropriately sized.
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