It’s Week 5 in the NFL, and I’ve got my top five props for Sunday’s slate.
Christian Watson Under 60.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s start with Green Bay and Chicago.
The Packers are home underdogs getting 1.5 points. The line moved to Chicago -2.5 at one point before coming back to Green Bay +1.5. The total has also gone up from 43.5 to 45.5.
One of my favorite props for the weekend is Packers wide receiver Christian Watson Under 60.5 Receiving Yards at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Watson is facing a top-10 pass defense, and against teams that rank top 10 against wide receivers, he’s averaging 35 receiving yards per game. He’s gone under this number in 80% of those matchups.
In fact, Watson is averaging just under 50 receiving yards per game against the Bears and has gone under this number in five of seven games.
Chicago has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Nine of the 13 receivers to face the Bears have gone under their receiving-yard props.
We’re going Under 60.5 Receiving Yards for Christian Watson.
It wouldn’t shock me if this number dropped to 58.5 by the time we get to kickoff.
Xavier Hutchinson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
The next prop I like is Houston wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards.
This is an underrated name because Nico Collins is back for Houston, and I love finding underrated plays.
The money has been coming in on the Texans, with the line moving from Houston -6.5 to -7.5. The total has also dropped from 39.5 to 37.5.
Do we trust Tennessee’s offense against this top-10 Houston defense? Maybe not. But I don’t trust Houston’s offense, either.
For Hutchinson, though, 15.5 receiving yards isn’t a bad number.
Even with Nico Collins playing, Hutchinson has gone over 15.5 receiving yards in 70% of games against teams that rank bottom 10 against wide receivers. He’s averaging 20 receiving yards per game in those matchups.
He also went over this number in both games against Tennessee last year with Collins in the lineup, finishing with 17 and 42 receiving yards.
Hutchinson averages five more receiving yards per game on the road and has gone over this number in seven straight road afternoon games.
The Titans have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Give me Xavier Hutchinson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards.
I love to zig while everyone else zags. While everyone’s looking at Nico Collins, we’re going somewhere else.
Geno Smith Over 206.5 Passing Yards
Don’t throw up when you see this next name, because I think Jets quarterback Geno Smith Over 206.5 Passing Yards is a great play against Cleveland.
I know you might think the Browns are a good defensive team, but they’re much better against the run. Their pass rush is great. Their secondary? Not as much.
Smith has gone over 206.5 passing yards in three of four games this season, averaging 225.5 passing yards per game.
Against defenses that rank bottom 10 in pass attempts allowed, Smith has gone over this number in nine of 10 games, averaging 251 passing yards.
He’s also gone over in both of his previous starts against Cleveland, throwing for 254 and 285 yards.
The Browns are allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game, and three of the four quarterbacks to face Cleveland this season have gone over their passing-yard props.
This number is too low.
I understand being a little nervous about Cleveland’s pass rush, but Geno Smith can get rid of the football.
The line has also moved from Jets -1.5 to -2.5, so the money is coming in on New York.
After so many close games for the Jets, this could be a spot where they pull out a win, as long as Smith doesn’t turn the ball over.
Give me Geno Smith Over 206.5 Passing Yards.
Tyler Shough Under 236.5 Passing Yards
Tyler Shough has looked really good for New Orleans, but he hasn’t had to face any top-10 pass defenses this season.
That’s why I’m taking Tyler Shough Under 236.5 Passing Yards against Minnesota.
The line has moved in favor of the Vikings from -1.5 to -2.5, and I think this is a sell-high spot for Shough.
He’s gone over this number in all four starts this season, but this is the first time he’s facing a top-10 pass defense this year.
In previous matchups against top-10 pass defenses, Shough has gone under in two of three games, averaging 209 passing yards.
Minnesota is allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game, and that includes a Week 1 performance in which Jordan Love threw for 387 yards.
Since then, the next three quarterbacks to face the Vikings – Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield and Malik Willis – have all gone under their passing-yard props.
This is where we’ll find out what Tyler Shough is really made of.
I’m taking the Under on his passing yards.
Michael Wilson Over 24.5 Longest Reception
My final prop takes us to Arizona against Detroit, where I’m taking Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson Over 24.5 Yards for His Longest Reception.
Wilson hasn’t caught a pass longer than 25 yards yet this season, which is strange considering he’s the deep threat and No. 1 receiver for Arizona.
I’m not worried about it.
Despite Wilson not having a catch longer than 25 yards, we’re still looking at a line of 24.5 for his longest reception. He’s had catches of 17, 18 and 19 yards, but he hasn’t broken that big one yet.
The books know it’s coming, and I’m going to be there waiting to catch it.
Last year against teams that ranked bottom 10 against wide receivers, Wilson went over this number in four of five games, averaging 26 yards on his longest reception.
Take away a five-yard catch against San Francisco, and the other four games all featured receptions of at least 30 yards against defenses that struggled against wide receivers.
Now he’s facing Detroit. We know the Lions’ secondary sucks. It’s been their Achilles’ heel forever, and it still is.
Detroit has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.
Here’s a crazy stat: 10 of the 13 wide receivers to face the Lions this year have gone over their longest-reception props.
If Michael Wilson doesn’t do it now, it’s almost now or never.
How are you not going to hit a deep ball against this Detroit secondary?
Give me Michael Wilson Over 24.5 Yards for His Longest Reception.
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