Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for August 28 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s dig into three power bats in some awesome spots as we head into the weekend – including a pick from the early Cubs/Reds matchup at Wrigley.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 28
- Matt Olson +240 (Rockies at Braves – Truist Park – 7:15 p.m. ET)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +275 (Reds at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 2:20 p.m. ET)
- Kody Clemens +350 (White Sox at Twins – Target Field – 8:10 p.m. ET)
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson
We’ll start at Truist Park in Atlanta, where the Braves host the Rockies at 7:15 p.m. ET. Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound for Colorado, and this one is screaming Matt Olson.
Sugano came into the league as a ground-ball pitcher, but you really can’t say that anymore. He ranks in just the 27th percentile in ground-ball rate, 11th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and literally the first percentile in barrel rate allowed. That is exactly what we want when we are targeting home run hitters.
He has given up 26 home runs this season, including 19 to left-handed hitters. Lefties are slugging .590 against him, which is a terrifying number to bring into Atlanta against a lineup loaded with power from that side.
Sugano owns a 4.96 ERA, but his 7.05 expected ERA says he has somehow been worse than advertised. His front-facing numbers are already ugly, so that is saying a lot.
Olson is enjoying another phenomenal season. His advanced metrics are through the roof, ranking in the 91st percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage, via Baseball Savant. He is on pace for more than 40 home runs this year, and this is a dream matchup.
All of Atlanta’s lefties are viable here, and Drake Baldwin is worth a look too, but Olson is my favorite. It is supposed to be in the high 80s in Atlanta on Friday. You really cannot ask for a better matchup or weather conditions.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Next, we’ll go to Wrigley Field for the lone afternoon game, as the Cubs host the Reds at 2:20 p.m. ET. Rhett Lowder is set to take the mound for Cincinnati, and I like Pete Crow-Armstrong to go deep.
Lowder is a former top prospect who is still just 24 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to figure it out. But so far, he has not lived up to the billing. His ERA and expected ERA both sit well over 5.00, and he ranks in just the 17th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
He owns a league-average hard-hit rate, a slightly below-average ground-ball rate, and a 16th-percentile expected batting average allowed. He is also giving up a fairly high average exit velocity.
Lowder is not the same type of complete punching bag for home runs as Sugano, but he has still allowed 15 long balls this season, 11 of them to left-handed hitters. His .195 ISO allowed to lefties is not great, and his .232 expected ISO allowed suggests he has been a little fortunate against power from that side.
Enter PCA. The left-handed superstar owns a ridiculous .291 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and is a legitimate National League MVP candidate. He is a pure superstar at this point, and I love him in a spot where he gets a right-hander who has struggled to keep lefties from doing damage.
MLB Home Run Pick: Kody Clemens
Finally, we’ll head to Target Field as the Twins host the White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET. Luis Castillo is set to take the hill for Chicago, and it is still weird seeing him in a White Sox uniform.
Castillo is just a shell of his former self. He has allowed a .226 ISO to left-handed hitters this season, which is a number that immediately gets my attention when looking for home run opportunities.
That brings Kody Clemens into the conversation. Clemens owns a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and is continuing a late-career breakout at age 30. He ranks well above league average in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, so this is not a total fluke.
He has already set a career high with 21 home runs, and 16 of those have come against right-handed pitching. Clemens gets the platoon advantage against a righty who has been crushed by left-handed power all season, and that is a matchup worth attacking.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, August 28
- Only afternoon game: Reds at Cubs is the lone early matchup, with first pitch set for 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field.
- Starting-pitcher uncertainty: As of late Thursday evening, the Diamondbacks, Athletics, and Mariners had not announced starters for Friday. Keep an eye on those games before locking in any additional home run wagers.
- Nationals bullpen: Washington enters Friday with an MLB-high 91 home runs allowed by its bullpen. That is always worth monitoring when looking at hitters who may face middle relief or a late-inning arm.
- Rockies bullpen: Colorado is also on the slate, and its bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA in baseball. That is another little boost for Olson and the Braves’ left-handed bats if Sugano does not last deep into the game.
Good luck Friday!
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