It’s been a ping-pong week.
Back and forth. Winning day, losing day, winning day. Tuesday finished as a 2-1 card. The Red Sox got there easily, and Brandon Marsh cashed as well. Brice Turang managed just an infield single and never scored, so the over on his Hits+Runs+RBI prop came up short. The result was roughly a one-unit winning day.
For the week, it’s been a grind. Down 2.4 units, up 1.8 units. Overall, that leaves us about a half-unit down heading into Wednesday. Hopefully, today is the day we turn the corner.
Blue Jays vs. Astros: Yordan Álvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Let’s begin with a player prop.
When the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet is projecting Yordan Álvarez for 3.4 total bases, I pay attention. This is one of the top-rated props on the board.
Álvarez has been relatively quiet through the first two games of the series, but now he gets Jameson Taillon. Taillon enters 2-6 with a 5.92 ERA.
In his last two starts with the Cubs, he allowed six hits and five hits while surrendering 11 earned runs over just 8.1 innings. That’s an 11.88 ERA during July.
The Astros crush right-handed pitching. Houston owns a .750 OPS against righties, 46 points better than against left-handers, and Álvarez remains one of the league’s best hitters in these matchups.
Rather than laying heavy juice on Houston’s moneyline, I’d rather isolate Álvarez.
- Pick: Yordan Álvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) (1.05 units)
Angels vs. Orioles: Orioles Moneyline (-127)
Next up, let’s continue fading Reid Detmers. The Angels have lost every game Detmers has started during July. To be fair, it hasn’t been entirely his fault.
He owned a respectable 4.62 ERA for the month and has allowed zero, one, and two earned runs over his last three starts. The real problem has been the Angels bullpen and everything around him.
Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers. The Orioles have now won six of their last seven games started by Rogers. His most recent outing wasn’t his best – six innings, eight hits, and four earned runs in a 10-9 extra-inning win over Detroit – but Baltimore continues finding ways to win behind him.
Yes, it’s a public play. Yes, some professionals are taking a shot with the Angels because baseball is volatile. I’ll stay with Baltimore.
- Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-127) (1.27 units)
Pirates vs. Brewers: Brewers Moneyline (-130)
The third official play heads to Milwaukee.
It’s Paul Skenes Day. I’ve spent much of this season fading Skenes. Then I tried backing him, and that hasn’t worked either.
Something just hasn’t looked right. He allowed five earned runs against Cincinnati. He followed that with another five earned runs against the Cubs.
Whether it’s fatigue, an injury, or simply a rough stretch, Skenes enters this start 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA after posting a 6.25 ERA during July. Pittsburgh needs him to be an ace. He hasn’t pitched like one lately.
Milwaukee counters with Kyle Harrison. At home this season, Harrison has been dominant: 5-1 record, 1.53 ERA, .192 opponent batting average, only four home runs allowed, and eight earned runs across 47 innings.
The Brewers have lost three of his last four starts, but Harrison was banged up before the All-Star break and hasn’t pitched since July 8. Nearly a month of rest should do him some good.
With Milwaukee owning one of the league’s best home records, this feels like the right spot to back Harrison again.
- Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-130) (1.30 units)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-149)
Football season is getting closer every day, but until then, Hard Rock Bet is making baseball even better with its 10¢ Summer Sale. That means reduced juice on pregame MLB winners, spreads, and over/under bets.
Today’s featured play comes from the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Elly De La Cruz has been on an absolute tear. The Cheat Sheet projects him for roughly three combined hits, runs, and RBIs. His line sits at 1.5, with the juice ranging between -149 and -159. It’s another five-star play.
The Athletics will send left-hander Jacob Lopez to the mound. The A’s have lost five of the last six games Lopez has pitched, and Cincinnati has been swinging the bats well.
The Reds are averaging 5.4 runs over their last five games – roughly 30% above their season average – and they own a .760 OPS against left-handed pitching, 68 points higher than against righties. That’s exactly the matchup we’re looking for.
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-149) (1.49 units)
Wednesday’s MLB Betting Card
- Yordan Álvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) (1.05 units)
- Orioles Moneyline (-127) (1.27 units)
- Brewers Moneyline (-130) (1.30 units)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-149) (1.49 units)
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
