NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks + Predictions for June 25

Happy Thursday! We’re back with NRFI and YRFI picks for June 25 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s get into my best MLB bets for today’s slate.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Thursday, June 25

• NRFI: Athletics at Giants –120 (Oracle Park – 3:45 p.m. ET)

• YRFI: Phillies at Nationals –105 (Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)

• NRFI: Yankees at Red Sox –135 (Fenway Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)

NRFI Best Bet: Athletics at Giants

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-120)

We’ll start at Oracle Park, where Landen Roupp takes the hill for the Giants against Jeffrey Springs and the A’s at 3:45 p.m. ET.

First, Roupp has been pretty unlucky this season. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, yet his expected ERA sits all the way down at 3.29, which is good for the 76th percentile via Baseball Savant. He’s elite at suppressing barrels and hard hits, and he’s fantastic at keeping the ball on the ground. I think some positive regression is due, and the Athletics on the road are the perfect storm.

The A’s are playing home games at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento this season, which has been a huge luxury. They own the second-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home. But strip them away from Sacramento, and they rank just 26th in that department.

Oracle Park is one of the toughest places to hit. Even during a day game, the park dimensions represent a massive downgrade for these bats. Between an unlucky pitcher in Roupp and a neutered A’s lineup away from home, this NRFI makes a ton of sense at –120.

As for Springs, he’s been a liability with a 5.55 ERA, though his expected ERA is almost a full point lower at 4.52 — bad but unlucky on top of it. He’s struggled to keep the ball on the ground, which isn’t surprising given his tiny home park dimensions.

The silver lining? Springs has a 4.28 ERA on the road compared to a 6.43 ERA at home this season. I’m banking on the ballpark upgrade for pitching to give him a boost, plus the Giants are completely league average against left-handed pitching. I’ll take the –120.

YRFI Pick: Phillies at Nationals

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-105)

Next, we head to Nationals Park at 6:45 p.m. ET for a YRFI at –105. These are fantastic odds.

I’m hoping Kyle Schwarber is back in the lineup after missing a couple of days nursing a sore back — that would be a huge boost to the likelihood of a first-inning run.

Cristopher Sanchez is on the mound for the Phillies, and he’s been absolutely dynamite this season. But he’s running into a buzzsaw. The Nationals own the second-best wRC+ against left-handed pitching in June, and even when you extend the sample back to the beginning of May, they hold the third-best mark in the league with the third-best OPS. James Wood toward the top of that lineup makes them dangerous from pitch one.

As for the Phillies’ side of it, they’ll face Cade Cavalli, who’s been struggling mightily in the first inning in June. He only lasted two innings in his last outing and has issued three walks in two of his last four starts.

The Phillies have been playing great baseball since Don Mattingly took over the dugout. In June, they own the seventh-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching with the fourth-highest ISO and sixth-best OPS.

Even though Sanchez is a monster, there aren’t many better offenses against left-handed pitching in baseball right now than the Nationals.

NRFI Pick Today: Yankees at Red Sox

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-135)

We’ll close at Fenway Park for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch with a NRFI at –135.

Cam Schlittler has been absolutely unbelievable this year — a true Cy Young candidate with an 8-3 record and a 1.71 ERA. He’s only given up one earned run in 16 first innings this season. That alone is enough to justify the play, but there’s another angle I love: Boston is traveling back from Coors Field without a day off, going back a couple of time zones. I think they could come out sluggish right out of the gates on Thursday.

On the other side is Connelly Early, and the biggest vulnerability in the Yankees’ lineup right now is Paul Goldschmidt, who’s truly having an All-Star season with 16 home runs and homered twice on Wednesday.

But with how dominant Schlittler is, I think this is a really fair price. Honestly, I’d consider Schlittler’s half-inning virtually locked down, so we’re essentially betting on the Yankees rolling over a couple of times in the first. I thought this juice would be in the –140s or –150s, so I’ll happily take –135.

Good luck on Thursday. Let’s keep it rolling!