The elusive white whale finally came through Tuesday night.
After weeks of chasing it, the sweep finally hit – and it happened in completely insane fashion.
The Knicks closed regulation on a 44-11 run to stun Cleveland, cashing our bet in one of the craziest endings of the NBA postseason. Anyone holding Cavaliers +7, +7.5, or +8 tickets took a brutal beat after what looked like a comfortable cover for most of the night. The total also appeared dead under before overtime pushed the game over the number.
The Guardians completed the sweep with a 4-3 win, giving us a 3-0 card and continuing what has become a very strong stretch overall. Eight of the last nine betting days have now been profitable, and May continues to trend in the right direction. Sometimes the breaks go your way.
Now our attention shifts to Wednesday’s card with four plays, including my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
Red Sox vs. Royals: Under 8 (-110)
Yesterday’s matchup between Boston and Kansas City should have stayed under the total comfortably before late offense ruined it.
The Royals scored just one run through eight innings, but Boston exploded late to send the game over the number. Kansas City continues to struggle offensively overall, and outside of the late scoring burst, the game played exactly how an under bettor would have expected.
Now the series finale presents another strong pitching matchup.
Michael Wacha has been excellent at home this season for Kansas City, posting a 2.63 ERA with opponents batting just .172 against him. He has allowed only eight earned runs across 27.1 innings at Kauffman Stadium.
Boston counters with Connelly Early, the 24-year-old left-hander who has quietly been very effective on the road. Early owns a 2.30 ERA away from Fenway Park with opponents hitting just .210 against him.
The first game of the series stayed under, and the second should have as well before the late scoring surge. With neither lineup consistently producing offense, another low-scoring game is expected Wednesday night.
Red Sox vs. Royals Pick: Under 8 (-110) (1.1 units)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 1: Over 6 (-120)
Vegas and Colorado open their series Wednesday night in what projects to be a much different style matchup than some of their recent meetings.
The recent head-to-head numbers lean under, including 3-2 and 2-1 finals in Colorado, but the current form of the Avalanche offense is difficult to ignore.
Colorado comes into the series rested after an explosive first-round matchup against Minnesota where the Avalanche consistently generated offense.
Vegas, meanwhile, enters after a much more physical and demanding opening round.
Rather than taking over 6.5, the preference is to find a flat six for the push potential. A 4-2 final or even a 3-2 game with an empty-netter feels very possible in this matchup.
Colorado’s offense should create plenty of pressure at home, and the expectation is that the Avalanche generate enough scoring chances to push this game over the total.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Pick: Over 6 (-120)
WCF Game 2: Thunder -6.5 (-110)
This sets up as the classic bounce-back spot for Oklahoma City.
The Thunder dropped Game 1 in double overtime despite poor offensive performances from both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Even with OKC playing well below its normal standard, the Thunder still forced overtime.
It would be surprising to see Oklahoma City fall behind 2-0 at home.
San Antonio has had success in this matchup recently, winning five of the last six meetings against OKC dating back to last season. But many of those games have also produced significant scoring, including finals of 130-110, 117-102, and 122-115.
There is also the question of Victor Wembanyama’s workload after playing heavy minutes in Game 1. Historically, San Antonio has been cautious in these situations, especially if a game begins to get out of hand.
The expectation is that Oklahoma City responds aggressively at home and evens the series before it shifts to San Antonio.
Spurs vs. Thunder Pick: Thunder -6.5 (-110)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Spurs vs. Thunder Over 215.5 (-110)
My Hard Rock Bet of the Day stays in Oklahoma City with the total.
Game 1 flew over the number thanks in part to overtime, but this matchup has consistently produced offense. Previous meetings between these teams closed with totals in the 230 range, making 215.5 feel relatively low by comparison.
Oklahoma City has been one of the better over teams in basketball this season, going 51-40 to the over. When the Thunder offense gets rolling, points come quickly.
The biggest factor may again be Wembanyama’s minutes. If San Antonio reduces his workload at all, the Spurs lose their most impactful defensive presence, opening the floor considerably for OKC offensively.
The expectation is another fast-paced, high-scoring game as the Thunder look to even the series before heading to San Antonio.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Spurs vs. Thunder Over 215.5 (-110) (1.1 units)
Wednesday’s Betting Card
- Red Sox vs. Royals Under 8 (-110)
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Over 6 (-120)
- Thunder -6.5 (-110)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Spurs vs. Thunder Over 215.5 (-110)
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