MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Monday (May 18)

Happy Monday! The weather is heating up across the country, which is perfect timing to make some home run picks today! The high temperatures and wind conditions are going to make life miserable for pitchers in a couple of spots. Let’s dive into the baseball action and break down the best home run bets for May 18 on Hard Rock Bet.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, May 18

• JJ Bleday +350 (Reds at Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• Spencer Steer +525 (Reds at Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• Juan Soto +250 (Mets at Nationals– 6:45 p.m. ET)

• Ian Happ +300 (Brewers at Cubs – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Honorable mention: Bryce Harper +350 (Reds at Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: JJ Bleday

We’ll start at Citizens Bank Park, where the Cincinnati Reds visit the Philadelphia Phillies with first-pitch temperatures pushing 90 degrees and wind blowing slightly out.

This is one of the best power environments in the country today, and both starting pitchers are giving hitters plenty to work with.

Nick Lodolo is only nine and a third innings into his 2026 season after missing time with a blister issue. He’s been brutal since returning, posting an 8.68 ERA over two starts with a 22.2% barrel rate and 48.3% hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.

On the other side, Andrew Painter is a volatile young arm. He’s coming off a nice outing against Boston but was shelled by the Athletics just 11 days ago, giving up eight earned runs and three home runs.

His 2026 Savant page shows a 10.5% barrel rate and a slightly below-average ground-ball rate. Lefties are slugging .400 against him, and right-handed hitters are posting a .644 mark.

JJ Bleday is my main play here. He’s been outstanding in 2026 and has been on an absolute tear in May. He’s a strong fastball hitter with a .294 ISO against right-handed fastballs dating back to last season, and Painter throws his fastball about 45% of the time to left-handed hitters. At +350 on Hard Rock Bet, the price is too good to pass up in this environment.

MLB Home Run Prediction: Spencer Steer

Steer is my second play against Painter at Citizens Bank Park, and his price is a big factor. He has seven home runs on the season, and four of them have come against same-handed pitching. The reverse splits matter here because Painter has shown reverse-splits tendencies in terms of power allowed, giving up a .275 expected ISO to right-handed hitters.

Layer that on top of 90-degree heat and wind blowing out at one of baseball’s most home run-friendly venues, and Steer is a compelling long-shot play at +525.

Home Run Pick: Juan Soto +250

Happy Jake Irvin day to those who celebrate! The righty owns a 5.91 ERA in 2026, and the regression is far from over. He ranks in the bottom tier of the league in hard-hit rate allowed at 48% and barrel rate at 13%, and he’s been allowing monstrous power numbers dating back to the beginning of last year.

Left-handed hitters have historically feasted on Irvin. He gave up 38 home runs last season — a staggering total — with 26 of them coming against lefties. Irvin’s expected ISO against left-handed hitters is well over 100 percentage points higher than what he’s actually allowed so far in 2026, meaning more regression is coming.

The weather in D.C. mirrors Philadelphia today. Temperatures shoud push 90 degrees with a light breeze blowing out. Juan Soto has a .354 expected ISO against right-handed pitching dating back to last season, and you can grab him at +250 on Hard Rock Bet.

Oddsmakers have priced in the matchup and environment, but I still see value at that number for one of the best hitters in baseball against one of the worst pitchers.

Home Run Prediction: Ian Happ +300

We’ll close at Wrigley Field, where the Brewers visit the Cubs tonight. Milwaukee sends Brandon Sproat to the mound, and winds are forecast at a minimum of 15 mph blowing out with temperatures in the mid-70s at first pitch. This is a great spot to make some home run predictions.

Sproat has a 9.3% barrel rate and 40.2% hard-hit rate allowed this season, with a .345 xwOBA that pegs him as a below-average arm. He’s proven to be roughly average or slightly below, and those numbers play much worse in 15 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley.

Ian Happ is the natural target. He has 10 home runs on the season and has shown power from both sides of the plate as a switch-hitter, which makes pitcher handedness a non-issue. With seven of those homers coming against right-handed pitching and the wind at his back tonight, +300 on Hard Rock Bet looks like good value on Monday.

Home Run Notes for Monday, May 18

A few things worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run predictions today:

• First-pitch temperatures are pushing 80 degrees at Yankee Stadium as the Blue Jays come to town. Patrick Corbin is somehow still finding his way into big-league rotations, and at this stage of his career, he’s struggling to keep the ball on the ground. Yankees’ power bats are worth a look.
• Don’t blindly bet Coors Field tonight. Temperatures are projected in the 40s with wind blowing in — about as bad a Coors environment as you’ll find. It’s typically a no-brainer to target offense there, but tonight is not the night.
• The Astros vs. Twins game is another spot worth monitoring. Tatsuya Imai takes the bump for Houston in what has been a rough debut 2026 season — his ERA is north of nine, and the Astros’ bullpen has been the worst in baseball all year. Houston’s pen has allowed a league-high 35 home runs.

Good luck Monday. Let’s hit some of these home run picks!

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