The third round of the NCAA Tournament wraps up with a compelling matchup between Tennessee and Iowa State, where coaching history, injuries, and basketball betting value all come into play.
With the line moving and questions surrounding key players, this game presents a pivotal spot for those looking to capitalize on the right side.
Joshua Jefferson is expected to play in this game, and that’s why this number has gone from 3.5 to 4.5.
This is tough.
The Rick Barnes Effect
Rick Barnes is a really good coach. He’s been in the third round or later multiple times. He’s 6-10 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. Not great. When he is listed as an underdog, he’s 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread.
I like betting against teams that have coaches that have had little success in this round. Rick Barnes is a guy you can fade.
If you want to lay 4.5, go right ahead, but once it got to 4.5, I got worried.
Simply Put …
I like Iowa State to win the game. I like Iowa State in Chicago. I like the matchup.
Jefferson is playing with a bum ankle. How many minutes can he go? How long can he sustain it? We’ll see. He didn’t play last week after the injury, so let’s see what the staff can do.
There is the worry about T.J. Otzelberger’s name being floated around for North Carolina, but I don’t like Rick Barnes, and I don’t think Rick Barnes wins this game.
Rick Barnes might cover, and that concerns me about a backdoor or a late game. I don’t want to be sweating out 4.5. That feels a little heavy for a game with a very low total, in a game that I think winds up going Under.
So, I don’t hate a 138.5 Under play, but that is super low. I mean, that’s down there with Michigan State and Connecticut at 136, or Iowa and Nebraska down at 132. These are games that I’m a little bit on the concerned side to come in and take the Under.
These are NBA arenas, so this is not an awful shooting environment for these games. I’m a little worried about it unless it gets to a game where they’re just going to beat the hell out of each other.
So to me, it is juicy, but we only pay the juice when we lose.
The Best Bet
- Iowa State moneyline at -185 for the Hard Rock Bet of the day.
I think we come in and take Iowa State on the moneyline and lay the -185 price on this, because I just don’t want to sweat it out.
I think the Cyclones win. I think the Cyclones are the better team. I think they’ve got more weapons. I think they’re more talented than Tennessee.
Iowa State wins, but I don’t want to worry about that 4.5-point number. I’d rather pay the price and just go moneyline with Iowa State at -185.
If they lose, it can blow up the entire day. Sure, that would stink, but I do think Iowa State wins. I’m just not sure about the cover, so I’m willing to lay the juice there.
BettingPros Daily Juice Picks for March 26
- Texas +7.5
- Duke vs. St. John’s Under 142.5
- Arizona team total against Arkansas Over 87.5
- Iowa State moneyline
We’ll be back next week for the semifinals. We’ll give you plays as we head to Indianapolis next week on our college basketball pick show on the BettingPros YouTube channel.
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