Welcome in, everybody, to BettingPros. It is me, Joey P – Joe Pisapia – joined by Chris Welsh.
We’ve got a little something special for you today. The Welsh and I are stepping away from our usual spot over on the MLB channel – and joining BettingPros to talk about some futures bets we’re targeting this Major League Baseball season.
This is going to be Part 1 of 2. We’ll be breaking down the National League next week, but this week it’s all about the American League. Welsh and I have identified some bets we believe are going to be winners this season.
Welsh crushed these preseason picks last year. I had a bit of a down year – injuries didn’t help – but the two years prior were absolutely out of the park. So between the two of us, we’re looking to make some cash here. Let’s get into it.
Joe Pisapia’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Hunter Brown Over 200 Strikeouts (+164)
I am very much on Hunter Brown over 200 strikeouts at +164. He has made 31 starts three years in a row.
Hunter Brown is durable. He’s entering his age 27 season. He went over that 200 strikeout mark last year, finishing with 206. And he only threw 185.1 innings in doing so.
I just think Brown sometimes gets overlooked. He had 10 strikeouts per nine last season, and has been a guy historically around that mark throughout his minor league and major league career.
Joe Pisapia’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Hunter Brown Over 200 Strikeouts (+164)
Chris Welsh’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Chandler Simpson to Lead MLB in Stolen Bases (+450)
This might end up being the pseudo-famous pick for me this year. Two years ago I hit on Elly De La Cruz stolen bases. Last year, I went with Garrett Crochet strikeouts. This year, I’m back to stolen bases. I’m going with Chandler Simpson to lead the league in stolen bases at +450. I kind of wish the number was a bit higher, but the projections back it up.
Jose Caballero actually stole more bases last year with 49, but here’s what stood out: only two players averaged about one stolen base per 10 plate appearances – Caballero and Simpson. Caballero averaged about 1.32 stolen bases per 10 plate appearances, and Simpson was right there as well.
The difference is opportunity. Projections don’t see Caballero getting a full run of plate appearances, and I don’t either. He’s likely in more of a utility role, probably under 400 plate appearances.
Simpson, on the other hand, should get a full opportunity. Some people are unsure, but there isn’t another player who can beat out ground balls like he can and immediately turn it into a stolen base.
I’m projecting 50+ stolen bases for him, with upside into the 70 range – higher than most projections suggest. He’s one of the fastest players in baseball. The key is staying in the majors and getting consistent at-bats.
He might hit lower in the lineup, but even there, he can rack up volume. His role is clear: get on base and steal.
So Chandler Simpson at +450 to lead the league in stolen bases – that’s my favorite AL bet for this upcoming season.
Chris Welsh’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Chandler Simpson to Lead MLB in Stolen Bases (+450)
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